Heterogeneous Response Functions in Advertising

De Fleur (1956) provides the earliest evidence of diminishing returns. He finds a common logarithmic pattern for leaflets dropped and message recalled in field experiment. Since then, many researchers have applied logarithmic or square root patterns to capture the effect of diminishing returns with their advertising response modeling across different media. But discussions with managers support the notion that the diminishing returns to incremental dollars spent on one medium (say, television) are not likely to be the same as those for equivalent dollars spent on other media (e.g., Print). But if diminishing returns indeed vary across media, how does that change the resulting allocation recommendation? To address this issue, we derive a dynamic model that captures the notion of differential diminishing returns and disentangles it from closely related notions of differential carryovers and differential ad effectiveness. Second, we develop a systematic method to estimate the model's parameters using market data and illustrate empirically that all three effects, diminishing returns, carryover and ad effectiveness vary across the four media employed. Finally, we investigate the normative implications for managerial decision-making. Here, we additionally account for varying media buying efficiencies across media. Taken together, the approach and its illustration should provide managers with a better toolkit to allocate their multimedia budgets. --

Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence

In Markov-switching regression models, we use Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and candidate models to select the number of states and variables simultaneously. In applying Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is an estimate of KL divergence, we find that AIC retains too many states and variables in the model. Hence, we derive a new information criterion, Markov switching criterion (MSC), which yields a marked improvement in state determination and variable selection because it imposes an appropriate penalty to mitigate the over-retention of states in the Markov chain. MSC performs well in Monte Carlo studies with single and multiple states, small and large samples, and low and high noise. Furthermore, it not only applies to Markov-switching regression models, but also performs well in Markov- switching autoregression models. Finally, the usefulness of MSC is illustrated via applications to the U.S. business cycle and the effectiveness of media advertising.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A New Methodology for Active Power Transmission Loss Allocation in Deregulated Power System

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated power system. As the power loss is a nonlinear quantity, so to allocate the loss in a common transmission corrider is a difficult task. It allocates transmission losses to loads based on the actual power flow in the lossy lines due to the concerned load. Each lossy line is subdivided into as many sub-lines as corresponding to the numbers of load attached to it. The tracing of power flow through each sub-line is worked out by using proportional sharing method. The power loss in each lossy line is equal with the total loss due to all the sub-lines under it. Then by using Pro-rata for each lossy line, the individual loss for each sub-line is formulated. As the application of Pro-rata is limited to an individual line of the system, so the error in calculation is minimized. The total loss allocated to a particular load is the sum of losses occurred in each lossy lines through which the power is flowing to the concerned load. As this method is based on the actual flow of power in the transmission line corresponding to the concerned load, hence, the loss allocation made by the method gives proper and justifiable allocations to the different loads which are attached to the system. The proposed method is applied to a six-bus system and finds the mismatch in the commonly used methods. Then, it is applied to higher bus systems in which more accurate results are obtained compared to the other methods

Importance of Instrumentation in Hydropower Projects

With the advancement of science and technology, humans endeavored to build massive structures, both on surface and sub –surface taking the advantage of physico-mechanical properties of the construction materials like concrete, steel, wood, rock, etc. Quality is the standard of something as measured against other things of a similar kind. The term itself is subjective until and unless quantified, cannot be controlled. Instrumentation plays a major role to quantify the quality of materials and check if the resources meet the requirements of the structural design. Several types of instruments are developed and used world-wide in different structures to monitor water pressure, seepage, movements, vibration, temperature, stress, strain and other significant parameters. The role of instrumentation specialist lies in understanding the dominating phenomena in the planned structure,designing the instrumentation network, monitoring schedules and timely analysis for cautioning the engineers,designers,quality personnel and the project management to have a check on construction measures vis-à-vis structural performance. This paper describes the role of instrumentation in hydroelectric projects with a brief case study from Bhutan Himalayas

Denoised least squares estimators: An application to estimating advertising effectiveness

This is the publisher's version, also available electronically from http://www3.stat.sinica.edu.tw/statistica/j10n4/j10n412/j10n412.htm.It is known in marketing science that an advertiser under- or overspends millions of dollars on advertising because the estimation of advertising effectiveness is biased. This bias is induced by measurement noise in advertising variables, such as awareness and television rating points, which are provided by commercial market research firms based on small-sample surveys of consumers. In this paper, we propose a denoised regression approach to deal with the problem of noisy variables. We show that denoised least squares estimators are consistent. Simulation results indicate that the denoised regression approach outperforms the classical regression approach. A marketing example is presented to illustrate the use of denoised least squares estimators

Comparative study of duraplasty and non duraplasty in Chiari 1 malformation with syringomyleia our institute experience

Background: The prevalence of chiari malformation, defined as tonsillar herniations of 3 to 5 mm or greater, is estimated to be in the range of one per 1000 to one per 5000 individuals. The objective was to study the clinical presentation and outcome of ACM syrinx after foramen magnum decompression, c1 posterior arch removal duraplasty and without duraplasty.Methods: The study included 75 cases admitted with ACM with syrinx in neurosurgery ward in King George hospital, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India, during a period of five years.Results: Clinical improvement correlated strongly with enlargement of the subarachnoid cisterns and also correlated with reduction in size of the syrinx cavities. Postoperatively all the patients had decreased neck pain and two third of the patients had improvement in nystagmus, headache and dissociative anaesthesia in few cases.Conclusions: In the available literature, the treatment options offered for ACM syrinx are foramen magnum decompression and c1posterior arch removal, release of compression bands, which were followed in our institute also. We have compared pre-and post of MRI. Clinical improvement has been observed in 2 thirds of patient after a period of 2 year period follow up

PRANIC HEALING: A STRESS BUSTER FOR CANCER PATIENTS.

Pranic healing is a highly developed and tested system of energy based healing techniques that utilizes \"Prana\" to balance harmonize and transform the body\'s energy processes. \"Prana\" is a Sanskrit word that means \"Life-force\" This invisible bio-energy or vital energy keeps the body alive and maintains a state of good health. In acupuncture, the Chinese refer to this subtle energy as \"Chi\". It is also called \"Ruah\" or the \"Breath of life\" in the old testament. Pranic healing is a simple yet powerful and effective no touch energy healing. It is based on the fundamental principle that the body is a \"Self-repairing\" living entity that possesses the innate ability to heal itself. Pranic healing works on the principle that the healing process is accelerated by increasing the life force or vital energy on the affected part of the physical body. Pranic healing influences this natural life force to being about a healthier physical body. Pranic healing is applied on the bio-electromagnetic field known as the aura, which contains the mold and blueprint of the physical body. This bioplasmic body absorbs life energy and distributes it to the organs and glands. Disease first appear as energetic disruption in the energy field before manifesting as ailments in the physical body. With all diseases including cancer the first objective is to understand that the cause is thoughts one\'s own guilt or harmful thoughts and feeling created by one\'s upon himself. To heal from cancer one must fully cleanse the physical, emotional and mental layers of body system