20,211 research outputs found
Oscillations in active region fan loops: Observations from EIS/{\it Hinode} and AIA/SDO
Active region fan loops in AR 11076 were studied, in search of oscillations,
using high cadence spectroscopic observations from EIS on board Hinode combined
with imaging sequences from the AIA on board SDO. Spectra from EIS were
analyzed in two spectral windows, \FeXII 195.12 \AA and \FeXIII 202.04 \AA
along with the images from AIA in 171 \AA and 193 \AA channels. We find short
(3 min) and long (9 min) periods at two different locations.
Shorter periods show oscillations in all the three line parameters and the
longer ones only in intensity and Doppler shift but not in line width. Line
profiles at both these locations do not show any visible blue-shifted component
and can be fitted well with a single Gaussian function along with a polynomial
background. Results using co-spatial and co-temporal data from AIA/SDO do not
show any significant peak corresponding to shorter periods, but longer periods
are clearly observed in both 171 \AA and 193 \AA channels. Space-time analysis
in these fan loops using images from AIA/SDO show alternate slanted ridges of
positive slope, indicative of outward propagating disturbances. The apparent
propagation speeds were estimated to be 83.5 1.8 \kms and 100.5 4.2
\kms, respectively, in the 171 \AA and 193 \AA channels. Observed short period
oscillations are suggested to be caused by the simultaneous presence of more
than one MHD mode whereas the long periods are suggested as signatures of slow
magneto-acoustic waves. In case of shorter periods, the amplitude of
oscillation is found to be higher in EIS lines with relatively higher
temperature of formation. Longer periods, when observed from AIA, show a
decrease of amplitude in hotter AIA channels which might indicate damping due
to thermal conduction owing to their acoustic nature.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic
Forecasting Industry-Level CPI and PPI Inflation: Does Exchange Rate Pass-Through Matter?
In this paper, we examine whether industry-level forecasts of CPI and PPI inflation can be improved using the ``exchange rate pass-through" effect, that is, when one accounts for the variability of the exchange rate and import prices. An exchange rate depreciation leading to a higher level of pass-through to import prices implies greater expenditure switching, which should be manifested, possibly with a lag, in both producer and consumer prices. We build a forecasting model based on a two or three equation system involving CPI and PPI inflation where the effects of the exchange rate and import prices are taken into account. This setup also incorporates their dynamics, lagged correlations and appropriate restrictions suggested by the theory. We compare the performance of this model with a variety of unrestricted univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as with a model that, in addition, includes standard control variables for inflation, like interest rates and unemployment. Our results indicate that improvements on the forecast accuracy can be effected when one takes into account the possible pass-through effects of exchange rates and import prices on CPI and PPI inflation.Forecasting, Vector Autoregression, Non-linear Models, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Pass-Through Effect
Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging
This study presents extensive results on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging can be considered beneficial on a priori grounds. We investigate whether rolling window averaging can improve the performance of model averaging, especially when ‘simpler’ models are used. The analysis provides strong support for rolling window averaging, outperforming the best window forecasts more than 50% of the time across all rolling windows. Furthermore, rolling window averaging smoothes out the forecast path, improves robustness, and minimizes the pitfalls associated with potential structural breaks.Exchange rate forecasting, inflation forecasting, output growth forecasting, rolling window, model averaging, short horizon, robustness.
Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration
This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and investment. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variation across countries and over time. We find that current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively associated with current account balances while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.
Frequency-dependent damping in propagating slow magneto-acoustic waves
Propagating slow magneto-acoustic waves are often observed in polar plumes
and active region fan loops. The observed periodicities of these waves range
from a few minutes to few tens of minutes and their amplitudes were found to
decay rapidly as they travel along the supporting structure. Previously,
thermal conduction, compressive viscosity, radiation, density stratification,
and area divergence, were identified to be some of the causes for change in the
slow wave amplitude. Our recent studies indicate that the observed damping in
these waves is frequency dependent. We used imaging data from SDO/AIA, to study
this dependence in detail and for the first time from observations we attempted
to deduce a quantitative relation between damping length and frequency of these
oscillations. We developed a new analysis method to obtain this relation. The
observed frequency dependence does not seem to agree with the current linear
wave theory and it was found that the waves observed in the polar regions show
a different dependence from those observed in the on-disk loop structures
despite the similarity in their properties.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap
Modified SPLICE and its Extension to Non-Stereo Data for Noise Robust Speech Recognition
In this paper, a modification to the training process of the popular SPLICE
algorithm has been proposed for noise robust speech recognition. The
modification is based on feature correlations, and enables this stereo-based
algorithm to improve the performance in all noise conditions, especially in
unseen cases. Further, the modified framework is extended to work for
non-stereo datasets where clean and noisy training utterances, but not stereo
counterparts, are required. Finally, an MLLR-based computationally efficient
run-time noise adaptation method in SPLICE framework has been proposed. The
modified SPLICE shows 8.6% absolute improvement over SPLICE in Test C of
Aurora-2 database, and 2.93% overall. Non-stereo method shows 10.37% and 6.93%
absolute improvements over Aurora-2 and Aurora-4 baseline models respectively.
Run-time adaptation shows 9.89% absolute improvement in modified framework as
compared to SPLICE for Test C, and 4.96% overall w.r.t. standard MLLR
adaptation on HMMs.Comment: Submitted to Automatic Speech Recognition and Understanding (ASRU)
2013 Worksho
Propagating Disturbances along fan-like coronal loops in an active region
Propagating disturbances are often observed in active region fan-like coronal
loops. They were thought to be due to slow mode MHD waves based on some of the
observed properties. But the recent studies involving spectroscopy indicate
that they could be due to high speed quasi-periodic upflows which are difficult
to distinguish from upward propagating slow waves. In this context, we have
studied a fan loop structure in the active region AR 11465 using simultaneous
spectroscopic and imaging observations from Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging
Spectrometer (EIS) on board Hinode and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on
board SDO. Analysis of the data shows significant oscillations at different
locations. We explore the variations in different line parameters to determine
whether the waves or flows could cause these oscillations to improve the
current understanding on the nature of these disturbances.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in RA
Omnipresent long-period intensity oscillations in open coronal structures
Quasi-periodic propagating disturbances in coronal structures have been
interpreted as slow magneto-acoustic waves and/or periodic upflows. Here we aim
to understand their nature from the observed properties using a three-hour
imaging sequence from AIA/SDO in two different temperature channels. We also
compare the characteristics with a simple wave model. We searched for
propagating disturbances in open-loop structures at three different locations;
a fan loop-structure off-limb, an on-disk plume-like structure and the
plume/interplume regions in the north pole of the sun. In each of the subfield
regions chosen to cover these structures, the time series at each pixel
location was subjected to wavelet analysis to find the different periodicities.
We then constructed powermaps in three different period ranges. We also
constructed space-time maps for the on-disk plume structure to estimate the
propagation speeds in different channels. We find propagating disturbances in
all three structures. Powermaps indicate that the power in the long-period
range is significant up to comparatively longer distances along the loop than
that in the shorter periods. This nature is observed in all three structures. A
detailed analysis on the on-disk plume structure gives consistently higher
propagation speeds in the 193 \AA channel and also reveals spatial damping
along the loop. The amplitude and the damping length values are lower in hotter
channels, indicating their acoustic dependence. These properties can be
explained very well with a propagating slow-wave model. We suggest that these
disturbances are more likely to be caused by propagating slow magneto-acoustic
waves than by high-speed quasi-periodic upflows. We find that intensity
oscillations in longer periods are omnipresent at larger heights even in active
regions.Comment: accepted for publication in A &
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