Modelling the impact of school reopening and contact tracing strategies on Covid-19 dynamics in different epidemiologic settings in Brazil

We simulate the impact of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic in three major urban centers in Brazil to identify the epidemiological indicators and the best timing for the return of in-school activities and the effect of contact tracing as a mitigation measure. Our goal is to offer guidelines for evidence-based policymaking. We implement an extended SEIR model stratified by age and considering contact networks in different settings – school, home, work, and community, in which the infection transmission rate is affected by various intervention measures. After fitting epidemiological and demographic data, we simulate scenarios with increasing school transmission due to school reopening, and also estimate the number of hospitalization and deaths averted by the implementation of contact tracing. Reopening schools results in a non-linear increase in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths, which is highly dependent on infection and disease incidence at the time of reopening. When contact tracing and quarantining are restricted to school and home settings, a large number of daily tests is required to produce significant effects in reducing the total number of hospitalizations and deaths. Policymakers should carefully consider the epidemiological context and timing regarding the implementation of school closure and return of in-person school activities. While contact tracing strategies prevent new infections within school en- vironments, they alone are not sufficient to avoid significant impacts on community transmission

Comparing assemblages of Asteraceae and their insect herbivores under different land-use regimens

Accelerated tropical landscape changes occurring over recent decades have produced environmental mosaics comprising remaining isolated green areas and mixed land-use types. Our objective was to study the effects of alterations in the natural landscape on the species composition and structure of assemblages of Asteraceae and their endophagous insects through comparisons between cerrado (savanna), pastures and Eucalyptus stands. We first investigated whether similarities between assemblages of Asteraceae and their insects varied among land uses or localities. Secondly, we asked whether assemblages of Eucalyptus stands and pastures are subsets of those within the cerrado. We sampled within randomly deployed transects in 15 areas. Land use was found to be an important factor in determining plant composition similarity; however, locality did not exert any significant influence. Pastures were less similar to one another, suggesting high beta diversity. Similarities among insect assemblages were correlated with plant assemblage composition, but not with land use or locality. Species of Tephritidae were distributed along localities independently of land use. High beta diversity in Asteraceae assemblages among cerrados and pastures was supported by nestedness analysis. Plant assemblages in Eucalyptus stands were subsets of cerrado, but pasture assemblages were only partial subsets. A higher degree of nestedness in insect assemblages than in plant assemblages indicated lower beta diversity within these herbivores. Our data indicate that many herbivores are specialized on widely distributed plant genera. Conservation of Asteraceae species and their flower head insects depends not only on maintenance of landscape fragments but also on the correct matching of management form and land use. Such management may contribute to reducing isolation of plant and insect species by increasing the connectivity of remaining cerrado tracts, allowing population maintenance even at low abundances.BIOTA-FAPESP of the Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo [98/05085]BIOTAFAPESP of the Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao PauloCoordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior - CAPE

The importance of plant life form on spatial associations along a subtropical coastal dune gradient

Questions Does the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants change along a gradient of sand dunes? Does this association depend on the life form of the understorey plant? Location Coastal sand dunes, southeast Brazil. Methods We recorded the occurrence of understorey plant species in 100 paired 0.25 m2 plots under adult trees and in adjacent treeless sites along an environmental gradient from beach to inland. Occurrence probabilities were modelled as a function of the fixed variables of the presence of a neighbour, distance from the seashore and life form, and a random variable, the block (i.e. the pair of plots). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted in a backward step-wise procedure using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection. Results The occurrence of understorey plants was affected by the presence of an adult tree neighbour, but the effect varied with the life form of the understorey species. Positive spatial association was found between isolated adult neighbour and young trees, whereas a negative association was found for shrubs. Moreover, a neutral association was found for lianas, whereas for herbs the effect of the presence of an adult neighbour ranged from neutral to negative, depended on the subgroup considered. The strength of the negative association with forbs increased with distance from the seashore. However, for the other life forms, the associational pattern with adult trees did not change along the gradient. Conclusions For most of the understorey life forms there is no evidence that the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants changes with the distance from the seashore, as predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis, a common hypothesis in the literature about facilitation in plant communities. Furthermore, the positive spatial association between isolated adult trees and young trees identified along the entire gradient studied indicates a positive feedback that explains the transition from open vegetation to forest in subtropical coastal dune environments.PETROBRASPETROBRASCAPES (Coordination for the Improvement of High Education Personnel)CAPES (Coordination for the Improvement of High Education Personnel)Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)CNPq (Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development

An integrated framework to improve the concept of resource specialisation

Resource specialisation, although a fundamental component of ecological theory, is employed in disparate ways. Most definitions derive from simple counts of resource species. We build on recent advances in ecophylogenetics and null model analysis to propose a concept of specialisation that comprises affinities among resources as well as their co-occurrence with consumers. In the distance-based specialisation index (DSI), specialisation is measured as relatedness (phylogenetic or otherwise) of resources, scaled by the null expectation of random use of locally available resources. Thus, specialists use significantly clustered sets of resources, whereas generalists use over-dispersed resources. Intermediate species are classed as indiscriminate consumers. The effectiveness of this approach was assessed with differentially restricted null models, applied to a data set of 168 herbivorous insect species and their hosts. Incorporation of plant relatedness and relative abundance greatly improved specialisation measures compared to taxon counts or simpler null models, which overestimate the fraction of specialists, a problem compounded by insufficient sampling effort. This framework disambiguates the concept of specialisation with an explicit measure applicable to any mode of affinity among resource classes, and is also linked to ecological and evolutionary processes. This will enable a more rigorous deployment of ecological specialisation in empirical and theoretical studies.Field work was supported by FAPESP grants to T.M.L. (94/02837-2 and Biota/Fapesp 98/05085–2). T.M.L., P.I.P. and M.A.N. also receive research fellowships from CNPq. This study is part of L.R.J.'s doctoral thesis submitted to the Ecology Program at the University of Campinas, with support by Fapesp (predoctoral grant 09/54806-0)

Associations of Forest Cover, Fragment Area, and Connectivity with Neotropical Understory Bird Species Richness and Abundance

Theoretical and empirical studies demonstrate that the total amount of forest and the size and connectivity of fragments have nonlinear effects on species survival. We tested how habitat amount and configuration affect understory bird species richness and abundance. We used mist nets (almost 34,000 net hours) to sample birds in 53 Atlantic Forest fragments in southeastern Brazil. Fragments were distributed among 3 10,800-ha landscapes. The remaining forest in these landscapes was below (10% forest cover), similar to (30%), and above (50%) the theoretical fragmentation threshold (approximately 30%) below which the effects of fragmentation should be intensified. Species-richness estimates were significantly higher (F = 3715, p = 0.00) where 50% of the forest remained, which suggests a species occurrence threshold of 30-50% forest, which is higher than usually occurs (<30%). Relations between forest cover and species richness differed depending on species sensitivity to forest conversion and fragmentation. For less sensitive species, species richness decreased as forest cover increased, whereas for highly sensitive species the opposite occurred. For sensitive species, species richness and the amount of forest cover were positively related, particularly when forest cover was 30-50%. Fragment size and connectivity were related to species richness and abundance in all landscapes, not just below the 30% threshold. Where 10% of the forest remained, fragment size was more related to species richness and abundance than connectivity. However, the relation between connectivity and species richness and abundance was stronger where 30% of the landscape was forested. Where 50% of the landscape was forested, fragment size and connectivity were both related to species richness and abundance. Our results demonstrated a rapid loss of species at relatively high levels of forest cover (30-50%). Highly sensitive species were 3-4 times more common above the 30-50% threshold than below it; however, our results do not support a unique fragmentation threshold.National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [69014416]State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)State of Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)CNPqCNP