Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts

Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has achieved tremendous progress since 1950 in crop production and food availability. Yields grew at an impressive rate until leveling off in the mid-eighties. Sri Lanka's population is anticipated to grow in the coming decades, creating an ever-greater demand for food security on the household, sub-district, regional, and national scales.The agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is vulnerable to climate shocks. An unusual succession of droughts and floods from 2008 to 2014 has led to both booms and busts in agricultural production, which were reflected in food prices. In both instances, the majority of farmers and consumers were adversely affected.At present the rice-farming systems are under stress due to inadequate returns for the farmers and difficulty in coping with shocks due to climate, pests, and diseases, and prices for produce. There are government price-support mechanisms, fertilizer-subsidy schemes, and crop insurance schemes, but the levels of the supports are modest and often do not effectively reach the farmers

Not Available

The following sections are included: Introduction The C3MP Methodology and Participation Protocols The C3MP Database and Evaluation C3MP Phase 1: Lessons Learned and Initial Findings Continuing C3MP Efforts and Future Work Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) ReferencesThe following sections are included: Introduction The C3MP Methodology and Participation Protocols The C3MP Database and Evaluation C3MP Phase 1: Lessons Learned and Initial Findings Continuing C3MP Efforts and Future Work Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) ReferencesNot Availabl

Not Available

The following sections are included: Introduction The C3MP Methodology and Participation Protocols The C3MP Database and Evaluation C3MP Phase 1: Lessons Learned and Initial Findings Continuing C3MP Efforts and Future Work Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) ReferencesThe following sections are included: Introduction The C3MP Methodology and Participation Protocols The C3MP Database and Evaluation C3MP Phase 1: Lessons Learned and Initial Findings Continuing C3MP Efforts and Future Work Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) ReferencesNot Availabl