The Impact of Sovereign Yield Curve Differentials on Value-at-Risk Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Rates

A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the whole yield curve in a parsimonious way for exchange rate risk prediction. The data analyzed in our empirical study consist of the EURUSD exchange rate and the EUR- and US-yield curves from 15 August 2005-30 September 2016. As a benchmark, we take an ARMA-GARCH and an ARMAX-GARCHX with the 2y-yield difference as the exogenous variable and compare the forecasting performance via likelihood ratio tests. However, while our model performs better in one situation, it does not seem to improve the performance in other setups compared to its competitors

Genome-Wide Analysis of Interchromosomal Interaction Probabilities Reveals Chained Translocations and Overrepresentation of Translocation Breakpoints in Genes in a Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma Cell Line

In classical models of tumorigenesis, the accumulation of tumor promoting chromosomal aberrations is described as a gradual process. Next-generation sequencing-based methods have recently revealed complex patterns of chromosomal aberrations, which are beyond explanation by these classical models of karyotypic evolution of tumor genomes. Thus, the term chromothripsis has been introduced to describe a phenomenon, where temporarily and spatially confined genomic instability results in dramatic chromosomal rearrangements limited to segments of one or a few chromosomes. Simultaneously arising and misrepaired DNA double-strand breaks are also the cause of another phenomenon called chromoplexy, which is characterized by the presence of chained translocations and interlinking deletion bridges involving several chromosomes. In this study, we demonstrate the genome-wide identification of chromosomal translocations based on the analysis of translocation-associated changes in spatial proximities of chromosome territories on the example of the cutaneous T-cell lymphoma cell line Se-Ax. We have used alterations of intra- and interchromosomal interaction probabilities as detected by genome-wide chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) to infer the presence of translocations and to fine-map their breakpoints. The outcome of this analysis was subsequently compared to datasets on DNA copy number alterations and gene expression. The presence of chained translocations within the Se-Ax genome, partly connected by intervening deletion bridges, indicates a role of chromoplexy in the etiology of this cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. Notably, translocation breakpoints were significantly overrepresented in genes, which highlight gene-associated biological processes like transcription or other gene characteristics as a possible cause of the observed complex rearrangements. Given the relevance of chromosomal aberrations for basic and translational research, genome-wide high-resolution analysis of structural chromosomal aberrations will gain increasing importance

No effects of GSM-modulated 900 MHz electromagnetic fields on survival rate and spontaneous development of lymphoma in female AKR/J mice

BACKGROUND: Several reports indicated that non-thermal electromagnetic radiation such as from mobile phones and base stations may promote cancer. Therefore, it was investigated experimentally, whether 900 MHz electromagnetic field exposure influences lymphoma development in a mouse strain that is genetically predisposed to this disease. The AKR/J mice genome carries the AK-virus, which leads within one year to spontaneous development of thymic lymphoblastic lymphoma. METHODS: 320 unrestrained female mice were sham-exposed or exposed (each n = 160 animals) to GSM like 900 MHz electromagnetic fields for 24 hours per day, 7 days per week, at an average whole body specific absorption rate (SAR) value of 0.4 W/kg. Animals were visually checked daily and were weighed and palpated weekly. Starting with an age of 6 months, blood samples were taken monthly from the tail. Animals with signs of disease or with an age of about 46 weeks were sacrificed and a gross necropsy was performed. RESULTS: Electromagnetic field exposure had a significant effect on body weight gain, with higher values in exposed than in sham-exposed animals. However, survival rate and lymphoma incidence did not differ between exposed and sham-exposed mice. CONCLUSION: These data do not support the hypothesis that exposure to 900 MHz electromagnetic fields is a significant risk factor for developing lymphoma in a genetically predisposed species, even at a relatively high exposure level

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Konzept zur standardisierten Schockraumversorgung von Patienten mit Polytrauma

Jeden Tag passieren in Deutschland viele Unfälle. Führend sind hier die Verkehrsunfälle zu nennen, jedoch gibt es auch viele Arbeits- und Freizeitunfälle. Einige dieser Unfälle überstehen die Verunfallten mit leichten Blessuren, andere hingegen sind schwer verletzt. Diese schweren Verletzungen erfordern ein adäquates Handeln sowohl im präklinischen, als auch im klinischen Bereich. Nachdem der Patient am Unfallort transportfähig gemacht wurde, schließt sich in der Klinik die Behandlung im Schockraum an. Um eine einheitliche und für den Patienten optimale Behandlung zu gewährleisten, wurden einige Verfahrensweisen entwickelt, wie etwa die S3-Leitlinie oder das Weißbuch Schwerverletztenversorgung. Diese geben Empfehlungen, welche Berufsgruppen an dieser Schockraumversorgung beteiligt sein sollen und wie eine Behandlung gestaltet werden kann. Durch die Bildung von Netzwerken ist die weitere Versorgung des Patienten in einem Krankenhaus mit weiteren Spezialisierungen und/oder spezieller Abteilungen gewährleistet. Die genannten Verfahrensweisen geben ebenso eine Empfehlung über die Ausstattung eines Schockraums ab. Eine weitere Möglichkeit sind prozessorientierte Behandlungsstrategien. Hier ist das ATLS®-Schema des American College of Surgeons wohl die bekannteste. Nach einem festgelegten Vorgehen werden mögliche Verletzungen so schnell wie möglich diagnostiziert. Da dies am amerikanischen Gesundheitssystem orientiert ist, wurde für europäische Gegebenheiten der ETC® entwickelt. Um lokale Eigenheiten und Gewohnheiten in die Behandlung einzubinden, ist es sinnvoll für das eigene Haus ein eigenes Schockraumkonzept zu erarbeiten. In dieser Arbeit werden drei verschiedene und übersichtliche Schockraumalgorithmen vorgestellt. Zum Schluss wird ein ausführliches Schockraumkonzept für ein regionales Traumazentrum ausgearbeitet