China's uncertain demographic present and future

This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China’s current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China’s population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.

Interprovincial migration, regional development and state policy in China, 1985-2010

Internal migration in China occurs as a result of both market forces and government interventions. This paper investigates how indicators of migration have changed over the past quarter of a century using data from successive censuses, with particular attention given to the roles of regional economic development and national policy and the effects of age and education on spatial patterns of migration. The results show a surge in migration throughout the period, an increasing concentration of migration destinations and an improvement of migration efficiency prior to 2000, but a decreased focusing of migration during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Widening regional disparity has been responsible for a sharp increase of migration from the interior to the coast, and different national economic growth poles emerged as major migration destinations at different stages of economic reforms. The analyses of age- and education-specific migration flows indicate that young adults were more mobile and more sensitive than older cohorts to interregional economic differentials, and that educated migrants were more concentrated than less-educated migrants since knowledge-based industries were more concentrated than labour-intensive industries. Our findings suggest that massive eastward migration induced by unbalanced economic development and relaxed migration restrictions still persisted in the 2000s, and that the State's recent efforts to alleviate regional inequalities were far from achieving equilibrium in the migration system

Data uncertainties in China's population

China’s large population and many demographic phenomena have drawn much attention, but its population data are flawed. In the paper we address uncertainties regarding China’s total population size, the fertility rate, and the death rate in China’s census data. The review is aimed to alert users of China’s data about the uncertainties and flaws so as to avoid misleading claims or research.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (14AZD096), the HSSTP project of Shaanxi Province (Jiang), and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)

Elderly widowhood in China

As population ageing accelerates in China, the number of elderly widowed individuals are expected to increase. Using 2010 census data we estimate widowhood indices for rural and urban areas, and for men and women in China. The indices show that the probability of elderly widowhood to be higher for females (0.68) than males (0.32)-with no rural and urban difference. An average marriage in China lasts about 47 years. After the death of a spouse, the average duration of widowhood is about 11 years for males and about 15 years for females. Spousal age difference has a significant impact on widowhood indices. Rural populations have the shortest marriage duration and the youngest widowhood age, and longer widowhood duration.This work is jointly supported by the key project of the National Social Science Foundation (Jiang), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71273205) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206

Education, Work, Citizenship of Youth in China: Strategies, Achievements, and Challenges

This article examines China's strategies for and constraints on protecting and implementing children's and young people's rights to education, employment and social and political participation. It shows that the 1978 policy of reform and opening to the world brought forth significant domestic economic and social changes and exposed China and its people to the world. All this, in turn, created new demands and concerns for the development of youth education, work and citizenship. The article further shows that in China, these three domains of youth have been influenced by changing domestic and global contexts, and the state has played a vital role in facilitating these changes in three major spheres of youth. China, however, has also been confronted with equity issues arising from new developments in these domains.published_or_final_versio

China's fertility change: an analysis with multiple measures

Background The period fertility in China has declined to very low levels, and the completed cohort fertility rate (CFR) has also decreased significantly. However, the exact fertility rate remains controversial. While the tempo effect has played a significant role in China’s period fertility decline, child underreporting has to be taken into consideration in China’s fertility research. Methods By using the census data from 1982 to 2010, and the 1% population sample survey data from 1995 to 2015, we systematically analyzed China’s fertility and its trends since the 1980s using period fertility measures, adjusted period fertility measures, cohort fertility measures, and indirect estimation methods. Results The results show that marriage postponement significantly affects the TFR decline. Even after eliminating the tempo and parity structure effect, the adjusted TFR has fallen below 1.5, and the first-order fertility rate dropped to 0.9 in 2015. The CFR for women aged 45–49 declined from 5.37 in 1982 to 1.62 in 2015 mainly because of a decrease in fourth and higher-order births from 1982 to 1990, a decrease in second and third births from 1990 to 2000, and a decrease in second births from 2000 to 2015. Indirect estimation methods yielded a TFR in the range of 1.5–1.6 for the period 2000–2010 and an average TFR of 1.49 for the period 2011–2020. Conclusions The traditional norm of universal marriage and childbearing for Chinese women is changing. China’s fertility has been steadily declining, as measured by both period and cohort indicators. Following the historical change, fertility may continue to decline even after introducing the universal three-child policy in China in 2021.This work was supported by the Key Project of Social Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No. 15ZDB136) to QJ

Metropolitan Trends and Challenges in China: The Demographic Dimension

Over the past century China has been transforming from a rural to an urban economy. In the course of this transition, significant regional variations have emerged in urban growth, with a gap forming between coastal and inland areas. This report focuses on Chinas metropolitan regions: Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong which are the most socioeconomically advanced regions in China. It is the first outcome of the joint IIASA and Beijing University project on "Regional Urbanization and Human Capital Projections for China," which focuses on demographic matters, and it will analyze the following major issues: What factors have contributed to the growth of Chinas metropolitan areas over the last two decades? What specific urbanization patterns occur in the transformation from a rural to an urban economy? How does demography drive the speed of urbanization, in particular, in the metropolitan areas? How is IIASAs multistate method used for urbanization projections and what are its advantages and disadvantages? What challenges will China face in the near future as a result of rapid metropolitan growth? This paper suggests that the growth of Chinese mega-urban regions will have knock-on effects at the global level in the medium term