Methodological advances

The study of population dynamics has long depended on methodological progress. Among many striking examples, continuous time models for populations structured in age (Sharpe & Lotka, 1911) were made possible by progress in the mathematics of integral equations. Therefore the relationship between population ecology and mathematical and statistical modelling in the broad sense raises a challenge in interdisciplinary research. After the impetus given in particular by Seber (1982), the regular biennial EURING conferences became a major vehicle to achieve this goal. It is thus not surprising that EURING 2003 included a session entitled "Methodological advances". Even if at risk of heterogeneity in the topics covered and of overlap with other sessions, such a session was a logical way of ensuring that recent and exciting new developments were made available for discussion, further development by biometricians and use by population biologists. The topics covered included several to which full sessions were devoted at EURING 2000 (Anderson, 2001) such as: individual covariates, Bayesian methods, and multi–state models. Some other topics (heterogeneity models, exploited populations and integrated modelling) had been addressed by contributed talks or posters. Their presence among "methodological advances", as well as in other sessions of EURING 2003, was intended as a response to their rapid development and potential relevance to biological questions. We briefly review all talks here, including those not published in the proceedings. In the plenary talk, Pradel et al. (in prep.) developed GOF tests for multi–state models. Until recently, the only goodness–of–fit procedures for multistate models were ad hoc, and non optimal, involving use of standard tests for single state models (Lebreton & Pradel, 2002). Pradel et al. (2003) proposed a general approach based in particular on mixtures of multinomial distributions. Pradel et al. (in prep.) showed how to decompose tests into interpretable components as proposed by Pollock et al. (1985) for the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model Pledger et al. (in prep.) went on in their thorough exploration of models with heterogeneity of capture (Pledger & Schwarz, 2002; Pledger et al., 2003), by considering the use of finite mixture models for the robust design. Given the level of details in demographic traits presently addressed by capture–recapture, the problem of heterogeneity, once apparently settled by fairly reassuring messages (Carothers, 1973, 1979), is becoming again a central issue, with potential disastrous consequences if improperly handled. Heterogeneity models, that bear also a relationship to "multi–event models" (Pradel, in press), will thus certainly be increasingly useful. Pollock, Norris, and Pledger (in prep.) reviewed the capture–recapture models as applied to community data (Boulinier et al., 1998) and developed general removal and capture–recapture models when multiple species are sampled to estimate community parameters. Because of unequal delectability between species, these approaches bear a clear relationship to heterogeneity models, which will be more and more a reference for comparative studies of communities and "macroecology" (Gaston & Blackburn, 2000). Bonner & Schwarz (2004) proposed a capture–recapture model with continuous individual covariates changing over time more fully developed in Bonner & Schwarz (2004). The difficulty here is to set up a sub–model predicting the covariate value when an individual is not captured. While multi–state models permit an ad hoc treatment by categorizing the covariate, Bonner and Schwarz bring a sound answer by considering the covariate obeys a Markov chain with continuous state–space. Otis & White (2004) presented a thorough, simulation–based, investigation of two approaches used to test the contrasting hypotheses of additive and compensatory hunting mortality based on band recovery data. The two approaches are the usual ultra–structural model and a new one based on a random effects model. This paper can be viewed as part of a revival of studies of the dynamics of exploited populations, in the broad sense, including the study of man–induced mortality in the framework of conservation biology (Lebreton, in press). This revival is a direct consequence of the increasing impact of man on the biosphere and of continuing methodological progress (Ferson & Burgman, 2000). The use of random effects models (see also Schaub & Lebreton, 2004) directly builds upon the seminal work by Anderson and Burnham (1976). Stauffer presented a Winbugs implementation of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model that complemented other presentations in the conference and the short course. Finally, Morgan, Besbeas, Thomas, Buckland, Harwood, Duck and Pomery, proposed a thorough and timely review of integrated modelling, i.e., in our context, of models considering simultaneously capture–recapture demographic information and census information. These methods were covered in other sessions, in relation to Bayesian methodology. Integrated modelling appears indeed to be the logical way of combining all pieces of information arising from integrated monitoring, and as one of the great methodological challenges for our community in the years to come (Besbeas et al., 2002). Methodological progress in population dynamics is apparently still on an upward trajectory and we look forward to many exciting contributions at future EURING conferences

Search for periodicities near 59 s in the COS-B gamma-ray data of 2CG195+04 (Geminga)

The COS-B data relating to five observations in the general direction of Geminga, spanning 6.7 years, were searched for pulsation near 59 s. The SAS-2 indication is not confirmed. An indication of a 59 s pulsation in the gamma ray emission from 2CG195+04 (Geminga) was reported. Early analysis of COS-B data supported the result while later improved statistics did not confirm it. Subsequently, detection of a 59 s pulsation in the emission from the direction of Geminga at ultra high gamma and X-rays was reported. Geminga was identified with the X-ray source 1E0630+128. The final COS-B data on Geminga which was observed five times for a total of 214 days are reported

Introduction and sustained high coverage of the HPV bivalent vaccine leads to a reduction in prevalence of HPV 16/18 and closely related HPV types

In 2008, a national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme began in Scotland for 12–13 year old females with a three-year catch-up campaign for those under the age of 18. Since 2008, three-dose uptake of bivalent vaccine in the routine cohort aged 12–13 has exceeded 90% annually, while in the catch-up cohort overall uptake is 66%. To monitor the impact of HPV immunisation, a programme of national surveillance was established (pre and post introduction) which included yearly sampling and HPV genotyping of women attending for cervical screening at age 20. By linking individual vaccination, screening and HPV testing records, we aim to determine the impact of the immunisation programme on circulating type-specific HPV infection particularly for four outcomes: (i) the vaccine types HPV 16 or 18 (ii) types considered to be associated with cross-protection: HPV 31, 33 or 45; (iii) all other high-risk types and (iv) any HPV. From a total of 4679 samples tested, we demonstrate that three doses (n=1100) of bivalent vaccine are associated with a significant reduction in prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 from 29.8% (95% confidence interval 28.3, 31.3%) to 13.6% (95% confidence interval 11.7, 15.8%). The data also suggest cross-protection against HPV 31, 33 and 45. HPV 51 and 56 emerged as the most prevalent (10.5% and 9.6%, respectively) non-vaccine high-risk types in those vaccinated, but at lower rates than HPV 16 (25.9%) in those unvaccinated. This data demonstrate the positive impact of bivalent vaccination on the prevalence of HPV 16, 18, 31, 33 and 45 in the target population and is encouraging for countries which have achieved high-vaccine uptake

Worm algorithms for classical statistical models

We show that high-temperature expansions may serve as a basis for the novel approach to efficient Monte Carlo simulations. "Worm" algorithms utilize the idea of updating closed path configurations (produced by high-temperature expansions) through the motion of end points of a disconnected path. An amazing result is that local, Metropolis-type schemes may have dynamical critical exponents close to zero (i.e., their efficiency is comparable to the best cluster methods). We demonstrate this by calculating finite size scaling of the autocorrelation time for various (six) universality classes.Comment: 4 pages, latex, 2 figure

Sex-specific patterns in demography of bottlenose dolphins in coastal and estuarine waters

Inherent difficulties in determining the sex of free-ranging, sexually monomorphic species (where both sexes look the same) often prevents a sex-specific approach to their study. However, accounting for sex-differences in population parameters can have important conservation and management implications, as one sex may be more susceptible to threats than the other

Use of HPV testing for cervical screening in vaccinated women - insights from the SHEVa (Scottish HPV Prevalence in Vaccinated Women) study

The management of cervical disease is changing worldwide as a result of HPV vaccination and the increasing use of HPV testing for cervical screening. However, the impact of vaccination on the performance of HPV based screening strategies is unknown. The SHEVa (Scottish HPV Prevalence in Vaccinated women) projects are designed to gain insight into the impact of vaccination on the performance of clinically validated HPV assays. Samples collated from women attending for first cervical smear who had been vaccinated as part of a national “catch up” programme were tested with three clinically validated HPV assays (2 DNA and 1 RNA). Overall HR-HPV and type specific positivity was assessed in total population and according to underlying cytology and compared to a demographically equivalent group of unvaccinated women. HPV prevalence was significantly lower in vaccinated women and was influenced by assay-type, reducing by 23-25% for the DNA based assays and 32% for the RNA assay (p=0.0008). All assays showed over 75% reduction of HPV16 and/or 18 (p<0.0001) whereas the prevalence of non 16/18 HR-HPV was not significantly different in vaccinated vs unvaccinated women. In women with low grade abnormalities, the proportion associated with non 16/18 HR-HPV was significantly higher in vaccinated women (p<0.0001). Clinically validated HPV assays are affected differentially when applied to vaccinated women, dependent on assay chemistry. The increased proportion of non HPV16 /18 infections may have implications for clinical performance, consequently, longitudinal studies linking HPV status to disease outcomes in vaccinated women are warranted

Cyg X-3: Not seen in high-energy gamma rays by COS-B

COS-B had Cyg X-3 within its field of view during 7 observation periods between 1975 and 1982 for in total approximately 300 days. In the skymaps (70 meV E 5000 meV) of the Cyg-X region produced for each of these observations and in the summed map, a broad complex structure is visible in the region 72 deg approximately less than 1 approximately less than 85 deg, approximately less than 5 deg. No resolved source structure is visible at the position of Cyg X-3, but a weak signal from Cyg X-3 could be hidden in the structured gamma-ray background. Therefore, the data has been searched for a 4.8 h timing signature, as well as for a source signal in the sky map in addition to the diffuse background structure as estimated from tracers of atomic and molecular gas

Quantifying recreational fishing catch and effort: a pilot study of shore-based fishers in the Perth Metropolitan area

Recreational fishing is a popular activity throughout Western Australia, including adjacent to the populous Perth Metropolitan area. Understanding the level of catch and effort associated with this activity is essential for the sustainable management of fish stocks. Whilst the focus of recent surveys in the Perth Metropolitan area has been on boat-based fishers targeting demersal species, shore-based fishing has not been measured for many years. Recent changes to management controls for these demersal species, including the implementation of a fishing boat licence, may increase existing pressures on nearshore stocks by displacing fishing effort onto these resources. Therefore, a need exists for the collection of information on the behaviour and catch of recreational shore-based fishers to support management measures

An integrated system to survey boat-based recreational fishing in Western Australia 2011/12

The Department of Fisheries developed an integrated system involving several survey methods to provide a more robust approach for obtaining annual estimates of recreational catch by boat based fishers at both state-wide and bioregional levels. These surveys, which used the recently implemented Recreational Fishing from Boat Licence (RFBL) as the basis for sampling, were the most comprehensive ever conducted in Western Australia. They not only provided estimates of catch and effort but provided the information for the validation of these estimates by enabling comparisons across the various methods