Characteristics of human encounters and social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact: a survey in Southwest Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Quantification of human interactions relevant to infectious disease transmission through social contact is central to predict disease dynamics, yet data from low-resource settings remain scarce. METHODS: We undertook a social contact survey in rural Uganda, whereby participants were asked to recall details about the frequency, type, and socio-demographic characteristics of any conversational encounter that lasted for ≥5 min (henceforth defined as 'contacts') during the previous day. An estimate of the number of 'casual contacts' (i.e. < 5 min) was also obtained. RESULTS: In total, 566 individuals were included in the study. On average participants reported having routine contact with 7.2 individuals (range 1-25). Children aged 5-14 years had the highest frequency of contacts and the elderly (≥65 years) the fewest (P < 0.001). A strong age-assortative pattern was seen, particularly outside the household and increasingly so for contacts occurring further away from home. Adults aged 25-64 years tended to travel more often and further than others, and males travelled more frequently than females. CONCLUSION: Our study provides detailed information on contact patterns and their spatial characteristics in an African setting. It therefore fills an important knowledge gap that will help more accurately predict transmission dynamics and the impact of control strategies in such areas

Адаптация гидравлической модели водостока к бассейнам рек Дунай и Днестр

Гидравлическая модель водостока адаптирована к бассейну рек Дунай и Днестр. По данным орографии, атмосферных осадках или поверхностном стоке она позволяет рассчитывать объемы, расходы и уровни воды с пространственным разрешением 1 км. В модели возможно использование данные об экосистемах на земной поверхности, типах почвы. По данным наблюдений стока оценены среднемесячные величины расходов рек, которые соответствуют наблюдениям, что позволяет применять модель в дальнейших оценках стока, наносов и т.д.Hydraulic model of water inflow is adapted to the Danube and the Dniester rivers basin. According to the orography, precipitation and surface inflow data it permits to calculate water volumes, discharges and levels with spatial resolution 1 km. It is possible to use the data on ecosystems on the ground surface, types of soil in the model. According to the observations data of the inflow the average monthly values of river discharges corresponding to the observations are estimated. It permits to apply the model in the further estimations of inflow, alluvia e t.c

Intensification in agriculture-forest frontiers: Land use responses to development and conservation policies in Brazil

Deforestation associated with agricultural expansion, particularly that of extensive cattle ranching, remains a pressing challenge for sustainable development and climate mitigation efforts in South America. In response to these challenges, national and local governments, as well as private and non-governmental actors, have developed new forest conservation governance mechanisms. In addition to reducing deforestation for agricultural expansion, it is hoped that these policies may lead to the intensification of existing agricultural regions, thereby contributing to global food availability and continued rural development. The objective of this study is to understand the timing and spatial patterns of crop and pasture intensification in agriculture-forest frontiers in the context of changing conservation policies and rural development. We focus on Mato Grosso, the largest soy and cattle producing state in Brazil, which spans the Cerrado and Amazon biomes and has experienced among the highest levels of deforestation for agricultural expansion globally. Using econometric analysis of remotely sensed and agricultural survey data, we find that cropland and pasture intensification are both linked to increasing forest conservation restrictions and broader supply chain development. However, the effect of conservation restrictions on intensification is lower in regions where there is more forest remaining. While crop and pasture area dynamics are often coupled in agriculture-forest frontiers, crop intensification does not appear to have contributed to pasture intensification through animal feed production. Intensification of crop and pasture areas was associated with temporary, immediate reductions in local deforestation, but crop intensification was associated with increased deforestation over longer time periods. These results suggest that targeted investments in supply chain infrastructure in the Amazon frontier could promote intensification and relieve pressure to clear forests, but must be coupled with substantial, long-term negative incentives for deforestation, including more effective public forest governance and private zero-deforestation commitments

The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation

A major reduction in global deforestation is needed to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. Recent private sector commitments aim to eliminate deforestation from a company’s operations or supply chain, but they fall short on several fronts. Company pledges vary in the degree to which they include timebound interventions with clear definitions and criteria to achieve verifiable outcomes. Zero-deforestation policies by companies may be insufficient on their own to achieve broader impact due to leakage, lack of transparency and traceability, selective adoption, and smallholder marginalization. Public-private policy mixes are needed to increase the effectiveness of supply-chain initiatives aimed at reducing deforestation. We review current supply-chain initiatives, their effectiveness, the challenges they face, and identify knowledge gaps for complementary public-private policies

Middle-range theories of land system change

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land-cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories – defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains –, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems