The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1–3 months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia

Skilful forecasts of high streamflows a month or more in advance are likely to be of considerable benefit to emergency services and the broader community. This is particularly true for mesoscale catchments (< 2000 km²) with little or no seasonal snowmelt, where real-time warning systems are only able to give short notice of impending floods. In this study, we generate forecasts of high streamflows for the coming 1-month and coming 3-month periods using large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate indices and catchment wetness as predictors. Forecasts are generated with a combination of Bayesian joint probability modelling and Bayesian model averaging. High streamflows are defined as maximum single-day streamflows and maximum 5-day streamflows that occur during each 1-month or 3-month forecast period. Skill is clearly evident in the 1-month forecasts of high streamflows. Surprisingly, in several catchments positive skill is also evident in forecasts of large threshold events (exceedance probabilities of 25%) over the next month. Little skill is evident in forecasts of high streamflows for the 3-month period. We show that including lagged climate indices as predictors adds little skill to the forecasts, and thus catchment wetness is by far the most important predictor. Accordingly, we recommend that forecasts may be improved by using accurate estimates of catchment wetness

PCR Based Genotyping of Lulu Cattle of Nepal for A1, A2 Type Beta-caseins

Lulu is an indigenous breed of cattle (Bos taurus) found in high altitude regions of western Nepal. Population of Lulu cattle has been declining due to introgression with other exotic breeds to increase milk productivity. Here we aimed at finding potential approach for conserving Lulu cattle and its assets by studying the milk contents and investigating which variant of beta-casein protein is present in this breed. Beta caseins are an abundant protein in cow milk with A1 and A2 being the most common genetic variants of this protein. Consumption of A1 type of milk has numerous health-related complications whereas A2 type of milk has numerous human health promoting factors. We used restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) for determining the A1 and A2 variant of beta casein in Lulu cattle. For performing DNA extraction, we collected (n = 18) blood samples of Lulu from Mustang and (n=17) Nepal Agriculture research council farm. The amplified fragments in 3% agarose at 251bp and 213bp respectively confirmed the presence of both A1 and A2 gene in Lulu; however, A2 was of greater abundance. Our study indicated that Lulu has A2 variant of beta-casein predominantly. The gene frequency of A1A1 is 0, A1A2 is 0.06 and A2A2 is 0.94. We further found that the allele frequency of A1 and A2 is 0.03 and 0.97 respectively. We designed special primer for sequencing CSN2 genes since A2 type beta casein gene was predominantly seen on Lulu. The sequencing result further supports our RFLP result as most of our samples have “C” nucleotide SNP in amplified CSN2 gene sequence. The Chi-square value of the current study is 0.04 which supports Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium inferring that Lulu cattle are still in the pure state, where there is no genetic introgression with the exotic breed for the sake of improvement of productivity

Social sciences research in neglected tropical diseases 3: Investment in social science research in neglected diseases of poverty: a case study of Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.BACKGROUND: The level of funding provides a good proxy for the level of commitment or prioritisation given to a particular issue. While the need for research relevant to social, economic, cultural and behavioural aspects of neglected tropical diseases (NTD) control has been acknowledged, there is limited data on the level of funding that supports NTD social science research. METHOD: A case study was carried out in which the spending of a major independent funder, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) - was analysed. A total of 67 projects funded between October 1998 and November 2008 were identified from the BMGF database. With the help of keywords within the titles of 67 grantees, they were categorised as social science or non-social science research based on available definition of social science. A descriptive analysis was conducted. RESULTS: Of 67 projects analysed, 26 projects (39%) were social science related while 41 projects (61%) were basic science or other translational research including drug development. A total of US$697 million was spent to fund the projects, of which 35$ 241 million) went to social science research. Although the level of funding for social science research has generally been lower than that for non-social science research over 10 year period, social science research attracted more funding in 2004 and 2008. CONCLUSION: The evidence presented in this case study indicates that funding on NTD social science research compared to basic and translational research is not as low as it is perceived to be. However, as there is the acute need for improved delivery and utilisation of current NTD drugs/technologies, informed by research from social science approaches, funding priorities need to reflect the need to invest significantly more in NTD social science research

The demand for sports and exercise: Results from an illustrative survey

Funding from the Department of Health policy research programme was used in this study.There is a paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which price and perceived benefits affect the level of participation in sports and exercise. Using an illustrative sample of 60 adults at Brunel University, West London, we investigate the determinants of demand for sports and exercise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews that covered indicators of sports and exercise behaviour; money/time price and perceived benefits of participation; and socio- economic/demographic details. Count, linear and probit regression models were fitted as appropriate. Seventy eight per cent of the sample participated in sports and exercise and spent an average of £27 per month and an average of 20 min travelling per occasion of sports and exercise. The demand for sport and exercise was negatively associated with time (travel or access time) and ‘variable’ price and positively correlated with ‘fixed’ price. Demand was price inelastic, except in the case of meeting the UK government’s recommended level of participation, which is time price elastic (elasticity = −2.2). The implications of data from a larger nationally representative sample as well as the role of economic incentives in influencing uptake of sports and exercise are discussed.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Applied Social Sciences for Public Health (ASSPH) Higher degree training for implementation research on tropical diseases

Copyright © World Health Organization on behalf of the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases 2007. All rights reserved. The use of content from this health information product for all non-commercial education, training and information purposes is encouraged, including translation, quotation and reproduction, in any medium, but the content must not be changed and full acknowledgement of the source must be clearly stated. A copy of any resulting product with such content should be sent to TDR, World Health Organization, Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. TDR is a World Health Organization (WHO) executed UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/World Health Organization Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases

Comparison of Two Azithromycin Distribution Strategies for Controlling Trachoma in Nepal

OBJECTIVE: The study compares the effectiveness of two strategies for distributing azithromycin in an area with mild-to-moderate active trachoma in Nepal. METHODS: The two strategies investigated were the use of azithromycin for 1) mass treatment of all children, or 2) targeted treatment of only those children who were found to be clinically active, as well as all members of their household. FINDINGS: Mass treatment of children was slightly more effective in terms of decreasing the prevalence of clinically active trachoma (estimated by clinical examination) and of chlamydial infection (estimated by DNA amplification tests), although neither result was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Both strategies appeared to be effective in reducing the prevalence of clinically active trachoma and infection six months after the treatment. Antibiotic treatment reduced the prevalence of chlamydial infection more than it did the level of clinically active trachoma

Social sciences research in neglected tropical diseases 2: A bibliographic analysis

The official published version of the article can be found at the link below.Background There are strong arguments for social science and interdisciplinary research in the neglected tropical diseases. These diseases represent a rich and dynamic interplay between vector, host, and pathogen which occurs within social, physical and biological contexts. The overwhelming sense, however, is that neglected tropical diseases research is a biomedical endeavour largely excluding the social sciences. The purpose of this review is to provide a baseline for discussing the quantum and nature of the science that is being conducted, and the extent to which the social sciences are a part of that. Methods A bibliographic analysis was conducted of neglected tropical diseases related research papers published over the past 10 years in biomedical and social sciences. The analysis had textual and bibliometric facets, and focussed on chikungunya, dengue, visceral leishmaniasis, and onchocerciasis. Results There is substantial variation in the number of publications associated with each disease. The proportion of the research that is social science based appears remarkably consistent (<4%). A textual analysis, however, reveals a degree of misclassification by the abstracting service where a surprising proportion of the "social sciences" research was pure clinical research. Much of the social sciences research also tends to be "hand maiden" research focused on the implementation of biomedical solutions. Conclusion There is little evidence that scientists pay any attention to the complex social, cultural, biological, and environmental dynamic involved in human pathogenesis. There is little investigator driven social science and a poor presence of interdisciplinary science. The research needs more sophisticated funders and priority setters who are not beguiled by uncritical biomedical promises

Effective Biosorption of Phosphate from Water Using Fe(III)-Loaded Pomegranate Peel

Removal of phosphate from wastewater is necessary for the safety of public health and environmental protection. The present study used an easily available and affordable biosorbent obtained from the pomegranate peel for the excision of phosphate from water. The biosorption behavior of raw pomegranate peel powder (RPGPP) was found negligible. The RPGPP was further saponified with Ca(OH)2 followed by Fe(III) loading to obtain Fe(III)-loaded pomegranate peels (Fe(III)-PGPP), which was then employed for the phosphate uptake. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and X-ray diffraction (XRD) were used to characterize the biosorbent. The batch adsorption test was used to evaluate the adsorption viability of biosorbents for removing phosphate from aqueous solution. Fe(III)-PGPP was determined to have a pHPZC of 5.40. The experimental data were best explained by the Langmuir isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic model. Fe(III)-PGPP had the largest phosphate biosorption capacity of 99.30 mg g–1 at the optimum pH of 3.0 and 2.5 hours of contact time. From the results obtained, Fe(III)-PGPP adsorbent can be regarded as an effective and cost-efficient material for the treatment of phosphate-anion-contaminated water

Smoking and health-related quality of life in English general population: Implications for economic evaluations

Copyright @ 2012 Vogl et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Little is known as to how health-related quality of life (HRQoL) when measured by generic instruments such as EQ-5D differ across smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers in the general population; whether the overall pattern of this difference remain consistent in each domain of HRQoL; and what implications this variation, if any, would have for economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions. Methods: Using the 2006 round of Health Survey for England data (n = 13,241), this paper aims to examine the impact of smoking status on health-related quality of life in English population. Depending upon the nature of the EQ-5D data (i.e. tariff or domains), linear or logistic regression models were fitted to control for biology, clinical conditions, socio-economic background and lifestyle factors that an individual may have regardless of their smoking status. Age- and gender-specific predicted values according to smoking status are offered as the potential 'utility' values to be used in future economic evaluation models. Results: The observed difference of 0.1100 in EQ-5D scores between never-smokers (0.8839) and heavy-smokers (0.7739) reduced to 0.0516 after adjusting for biological, clinical, lifestyle and socioeconomic conditions. Heavy-smokers, when compared with never-smokers, were significantly more likely to report some/severe problems in all five domains - mobility (67%), self-care (70%), usual activity (42%), pain/discomfort (46%) and anxiety/depression (86%) -. 'Utility' values by age and gender for each category of smoking are provided to be used in the future economic evaluations. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly and negatively associated with health-related quality of life in English general population and the magnitude of this association is determined by the number of cigarettes smoked. The varying degree of this association, captured through instruments such as EQ-5D, may need to be fed into the design of future economic evaluations where the intervention being evaluated affects (e.g. tobacco control) or is affected (e.g. treatment for lung cancer) by individual's (or patients') smoking status