A critical evaluation of decadal solar cycle imprints in the MiKlip historical ensemble simulations

Studies concerning solar–terrestrial connections over the last decades claim to have found evidence that the quasi-decadal solar cycle can have an influence on the dynamics in the middle atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the winter season. It has been argued that feedbacks between the intensity of the UV part of the solar spectrum and low-latitude stratospheric ozone may produce anomalies in meridional temperature gradients which have the potential to alter the zonal-mean flow in middle to high latitudes. Interactions between the zonal wind and planetary waves can lead to a downward propagation of the anomalies, produced in the middle atmosphere, down to the troposphere. More recently, it has been proposed that top-down-initiated decadal solar signals might modulate surface climate and synchronize the North Atlantic Oscillation. A realistic representation of the solar cycle in climate models was suggested to significantly enhance decadal prediction skill. These conclusions have been debated controversial since then due to the lack of realistic decadal prediction model setups and more extensive analysis. In this paper we aim for an objective and improved evaluation of possible solar imprints from the middle atmosphere to the surface and with that from head to toe. Thus, we analyze model output from historical ensemble simulations conducted with the state-of-the-art Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model in high-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-HR). The target of these simulations was to isolate the most crucial model physics to foster basic research on decadal climate prediction and to develop an operational ensemble decadal prediction system within the “Mittelfristige Klimaprognose” (MiKlip) framework. Based on correlations and multiple linear regression analysis we show that the MPI-ESM-HR simulates a realistic, statistically significant and robust shortwave heating rate and temperature response at the tropical stratopause, in good agreement with existing studies. However, the dynamical response to this initial radiative signal in the NH during the boreal winter season is weak. We find a slight strengthening of the polar vortex in midwinter during solar maximum conditions in the ensemble mean, which is consistent with the so-called “top-down” mechanism. The individual ensemble members, however, show a large spread in the dynamical response with opposite signs in response to the solar cycle, which might be a result of the large overall internal variability compensating for rather small solar imprints. We also analyze the possible surface responses to the 11-year solar cycle and review the proposed synchronization between the solar forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that the simulated westerly wind anomalies in the lower troposphere, as well as the anomalies in the mean sea level pressure, are most likely independent from the timing of the solar signal in the middle atmosphere and the alleged top-down influences. The pattern rather reflects the decadal internal variability in the troposphere, mimicking positive and negative phases of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations throughout the year sporadically, which is then assigned to the solar predictor time series without any plausible physical connection and sound solar contribution. Finally, by applying lead–lag correlations, we find that the proposed synchronization between the solar cycle and the decadal component of the North Atlantic Oscillation might rather be a statistical artifact, affected for example by the internal decadal variability in the ocean, than a plausible physical connection between the UV solar forcing and quasi-decadal variations in the troposphere

Die "Desorganisierung" des südkoreanischen Wirtschaftsmodells - Das Ende der Gründerzeit und der Aufstieg der neuen Mittelklasse

Alte Werte, Organisations- und Netzwerkformen sind in den letzten Jahren in den asiatischen Schwellenländern massiv in Frage gestellt worden. Das Ende der Tycoons und der „old bamboo networks“ wurde spätestens mit der asiatischen Finanzkrise eingeläutet. In Südkorea hat in den vergangenen Jahren die Suche nach Anworten auf die neuen ökonomischen und soziokulturellen Herausforderungen begonnen. Mit dem sozialstrukturellen Aufstieg der so genannten neuen Mittelklassen als Vorreiter eines kulturellen Wertewandels haben sich die "inneren" Bedingungen der ökonomischen Entwicklung in Südkorea verändert. Der auf den chaebôl lastende Reformdruck wächst von unten, von oben und von innen. Von unten durch die zweite Generation der Arbeiterschaft, von oben durch die Reformpolitik des Post-Entwicklungsstaates und von innen durch die zunehmend starke Expertenschar innerhalb der chaebôl

Performance of compressed sensing for fluorine-19 magnetic resonance imaging at low signal-to-noise ratio conditions

PURPOSE: To examine the performance of compressed sensing (CS) in reconstructing low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) (19)F MR signals that are close to the detection threshold and originate from small signal sources with no a priori known location. METHODS: Regularization strength was adjusted automatically based on noise level. As performance metrics, root-mean-square deviations, true positive rates (TPRs), and false discovery rates were computed. CS and conventional reconstructions were compared at equal measurement time and evaluated in relation to high-SNR reference data. (19)F MR data were generated from a purpose-built phantom and benchmarked against simulations, as well as from the experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis mouse model. We quantified the signal intensity bias and introduced an intensity calibration for in vivo data using high-SNR ex vivo data. RESULTS: Low-SNR (19)F MR data could be reliably reconstructed. Detection sensitivity was consistently improved and data fidelity was preserved for undersampling and averaging factors of α = 2 or = 3. Higher α led to signal blurring in the mouse model. The improved TPRs at α = 3 were comparable to a 2.5-fold increase in measurement time. Whereas CS resulted in a downward bias of the (19)F MR signal, Fourier reconstructions resulted in an unexpected upward bias of similar magnitude. The calibration corrected signal-intensity deviations for all reconstructions. CONCLUSION: CS is advantageous whenever image features are close to the detection threshold. It is a powerful tool, even for low-SNR data with sparsely distributed (19)F signals, to improve spatial and temporal resolution in (19)F MR applications

Near-field modeling in Frenchman Flat, Nevada Test Site

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is investigating the effects of nuclear testing in underground test areas (the UGTA program) at the Nevada Test Site. The principal focus of the UGTA program is to better understand and define subsurface radionuclide migration. The study described in this report focuses on the development of tools for generating maps of hydrogeologic characteristics of subsurface Tertiary volcanic units at the Frenchman Flat corrective Action Unit (CAU). The process includes three steps. The first step involves generation of three-dimensional maps of the geologic structure of subsurface volcanic units using geophysical logs to distinguish between two classes: densely welded tuff and nonwelded tuff. The second step generates three-dimensional maps of hydraulic conductivity utilizing the spatial distribution of the two geologic classes obtained in the first step. Each class is described by a correlation structure based on existing data on hydraulic conductivity, and conditioned on the generated spatial location of each class. The final step demonstrates the use of the maps of hydraulic conductivity for modeling groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in volcanic tuffs from an underground nuclear test at the Frenchman Flat CAU. The results indicate that the majority of groundwater flow through the volcanic section occurs through zones of densely welded tuff where connected fractures provide the transport pathway. Migration rates range between near zero to approximately four m/yr, with a mean rate of 0.68 m/yr. This report presents the results of work under the FY96 Near-Field Modeling task of the UGTA program

Three-dimensional mapping of equiprobable hydrostratigraphic units at the Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit, Nevada Test Site

Geological and geophysical data are used with the sequential indicator simulation algorithm of Gomez-Hernandez and Srivastava to produce multiple, equiprobable, three-dimensional maps of informal hydrostratigraphic units at the Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit, Nevada Test Site. The upper 50 percent of the Tertiary volcanic lithostratigraphic column comprises the study volume. Semivariograms are modeled from indicator-transformed geophysical tool signals. Each equiprobable study volume is subdivided into discrete classes using the ISIM3D implementation of the sequential indicator simulation algorithm. Hydraulic conductivity is assigned within each class using the sequential Gaussian simulation method of Deutsch and Journel. The resulting maps show the contiguity of high and low hydraulic conductivity regions

The Effect of Time and pH on Hemolysis During Cardiopulmonary Bypass

Articlehttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/96979/1/UMURF-Issue05_2008-ABansal.pd

Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe

In recent years, several decadal prediction systems have been developed to provide multi-year predictions of the climate for the next 5–10 years. On the global scale, high decadal predictability has been identified for the North Atlantic sector, often extending over Europe. The first full regional hindcast ensemble, derived from dynamical downscaling, was produced within the German MiKlip project (‘decadal predictions’). The ensemble features annual starting dates from 1960 to 2017, with 10 decadal hindcasts per starting year. The global component of the prediction system uses the MPI-ESM-LR and the downscaling is performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The present study focusses on a range of aspects dealing with the skill and added value of regional decadal temperature predictions over Europe. The results substantiate the added value of the regional hindcasts compared to the forcing global model as well as to un-initialized simulations. The results show that the hindcasts are skilful both for annual and seasonal means, and that the scores are comparable for different observational reference data sets. The predictive skill increases from earlier to more recent start-years. A recalibration of the simulation data generally improves the skill further, which can also be transferred to more user-relevant variables and extreme values like daily maximum temperatures and heating degree-days. These results provide evidence of the potential for the regional climate predictions to provide valuable climate information on the decadal time-scale to users

Sistema sulco/camalhão para irrigação e drenagem em áreas de várzea.

SISTEMA SULCO/CAMALHÃO PARA IRRIGAÇÃO E DRENAGEM EM ÁREAS DE VÁRZEA - A soja e o milho são as principais culturas produtoras de grãos utilizadas na diversificação do sistema de produção nas várzeas do Rio Grande do Sul, em rotação com o arroz irrigado. Os principais fatores limitantes, para que estas culturas sejam produtivas e rentáveis neste sistema, são a deficiente drenagem natural do solo e a ocorrência de freqüentes períodos de estiagem, acarretando alternância entre o excesso e o déficit de umidade no solo. A Embrapa Clima Temperado testou e validou a técnica sulco/camalhão em áreas sistematizadas com e sem declive, para estes cultivos, com resultados bastante promissores. O sistema consiste na estruturação da lavoura para a irrigação por sulcos, obtendo-se, ao mesmo tempo, grande benefício em drenagem, com o cultivo sobre os camalhões formados entre os sulcos. Esta técnica, como sistema complementar de drenagem superficial do solo, mostrou-se muito eficiente mesmo nos cultivos em áreas sistematizadas sem declive, onde não existe um gradiente para escoamento superficial da água. O principal requisito para a irrigação por sulcos é que o terreno tenha uma declividade constante e uniforme, requerendo geralmente a sistematização do terreno. Para irrigações mais uniformes e eficientes, a declividade deve variar de 0,10% a 0,50%, sendo que valores intermediários entre 0,15% e 0,30% são os mais indicadosbitstream/item/31294/1/comunicado-165.pd