Russian agri-food sector: 16 months after the breakdown of the monetary system

In August 1998 the Russian foreign exchange market and financial system collapsed. As a consequence the rouble devaluated in real terms against the currencies of the main trade partners, generating an output push in the agri-food sector. This improved the financial health of most producer, thus opening a window of opportunity enhancing the long run growth prospects. But, it is not apparent whether the agri-food sector make use of the enhanced circumstances. Insufficient incentive systems due to non-enforcement of legal rules within firms and farms and lack of credibility of Russian government promote a rent-seeking behaviour of employer and employees. Thus, it could be expected, that the non-price competitiveness of Russian products will rather worsen than getting better. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Der Zusammenbruch des russischen Devisenmarktes und Finanzsystems im August 1998 führte zu einer drastischen realen Abwertung des Rubels gegenüber den Währungen der wichtigsten Handelspartner. Dies führte zu einer Zunahme der Produktion und damit einhergehend des Absatzes in der russischen Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft, die die finanzielle Situation der meisten Produzenten konsolidierte. Den Unternehmen wurden hierdurch Möglichkeiten eröffnet, auch langfristig ihre Wachstumschancen zu verbessern. Bisher gibt es aber keine Hinweise dafür, daß die Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft diese auch ausnutzen wird. Unzureichende Anreizsysteme aufgrund einer mangelhaften Bereitschaft von staatlichen Verwaltung und Justiz Gesetze und Verordnungen durchzusetzen und die geringe Glaubwürdigkeit der russischen Regierung fördern ein Rent-Seeking-Verhalten der Unternehmen und der Angestellten. Es ist daher eher zu erwarten, daß sich die nicht-preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit russischer Anbieter verschlechtern wird.agrifood sector,macroeconomic environment,exchange rate policy,agricultural credit market,Russia,Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft,Wechselkurspolitik,Makroökonomische Rahmenbedingungen,Agrarkreditmarkt,Russland

Vermindern Transferzahlungen den Konflikt zwischen Gewinnern und Verlierern in einer sich transformierenden Volkswirtschaft?

Die Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, ob Kompensationszahlungen an die Verlierer der Transformation zu einer Verminderung des Konfliktes zwischen ihnen und den Gewinnern führen können. Eine Lösung des Konfliktes ist essentiell für die Weiterführung des Reformprozesses in den Transformationsländern. Die Basis der Analyse bildet ein Generationenmodell in der Tradition von DIAMOND, welches um den produktivitätsrelevanten und die Produktqualität verbessernden technischen Fortschritt erweitert wurde. Die Ausführungen zeigen, daß Kompensationszahlungen nur unter ganz bestimmten Bedingungen zu einer Konfliktlösung beitragen. Die alte Generation als potentieller Verlierer präferiert i.a. Finanzierungsinstrumente, die für die junge Generation als mögliche Gewinner aber nachteilig sind. -- E N G L I S H V E R S I O N: This paper discusses whether compensation payments in a transition economy can contribute to a reduction of the conflict between winners and losers of the transformation. The political relevancy of this issue is obvious. The failure of both parties to realize their political objectives due to a lack of power, they will obstruct each other, restraining the transformation process. The analysis is based on an overlapping generation model following DIAMOND, which was extended by technical progress relevant for productivity and improvement of the product quality. Hence, whether the aim of the compensatory payments will be achieved or not, depends on their financing and on the reference point of the household in assessing the effects of transfer payments. Older households, i.e. potential losers, will prefer generally a way of financing the payments which are for the younger generation, as the potential winners, disadvantageous.

Assessing carbon‐based materials of Belo Horizonte municipal solid waste management

Municipal solid waste are mainly composed by carbon-based materials which leaves the households with still in-use lifespans. Many plastic bottles, papers, textiles, cans with tens of lifespan years are commonly found on streets, landfills, lakes, and oceans. A better use of waste products is demanding in a world of increasing competition for (mineral, metallic, and so on) materials and in some cases expected decline of reserves. Recycling is a source of much confusion particularly when comparing its process with manufacturing of new products. Notwithstanding, primary raw materials are became scarce. For this reason the increase demand for secondary raw materials requires a proper understanding of waste flows, recycling and their impacts in the society. Many studies have previous analysed the models of municipal solid waste generation, economic, policy and greenhouse gas mitigation of municipal solid waste technologies. However, a lack of research on carbon flows, stocks of municipal solid waste, secondary raw materials and their sustainability relationship into society are perceived; this is specific importance in cities with relevant share of waste pickers. Overarching aim is the environmental impact assessment and recycling efficiency of recyclable municipal solid waste. In the first part of this article, a systemic and conceptual model based on urban carbon cycle including the carbon stock of municipal waste manage processes such as waste collection, transportation, treatment and disposal is described. Moreover, the model takes into account three possibilities of recycling (primary, secondary and tertiary). In the second part, the current carbon cycling of municipal solid waste management system and five different type of plastic flows (polyethylene terephthalate, high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, polypropylene and polystyrene) are analysed using a Belo Horizonte city (Brazil) case study. Belo Horizonte is known by the informal recycling sector integration system where waste pickers are responsible for largest part of urban recycling. The results indicate the landfill formed the largest carbon stocks. The influence of secondary polyethylene terephthalate reduce of 12 per cent of the environmental impact. Polystyrene presented a negative recycling efficiency and negative attraction for waste picker’s commercialization

Migration durch EU-Integration? Folgen für den ländlichen Raum

Der Zusammenbruch des planwirtschaftlichen Systems in Mittel- und Osteuropa zu Beginn dieses Jahrzehnts und die Öffnung dieser Volkswirtschaften hat zu einem bedeutenden Migrationsschub nach Westeuropa geführt. Die Darstellung der Entwicklung der bisherigen Migrationsströme aus Mittel- und Osteuropa und die Bestimmungsgründe der Migration bilden den Ausgangspunkt für eine Schätzung des zukünftig zu erwartenden Migrationsniveaus im Falle eines EU-Beitritts einzelner mittel- und osteuropäischer Staaten. Ausgehend von der Dominanz ökonomischer Motive bildet die unterschiedliche Einkommensentwicklung zwischen West- und Osteuropa das zentrale Element der Prognose. Hinsichtlich der ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Migration steht nicht die Zielregion, sondern die Abwanderungsregion, insbesondere der ländliche Raum, im Vordergrund. Länderschwerpunkte der Analyse stellen Polen, Ungarn und die Tschechische Republik dar. -- E N G L I S H V E R S I O N: The collapse of the planned economies in Central and Eastern Europe at the beginning of this decade and the opening up of the national economies led to considerable migration flows into Western Europe. The description of earlier migration flows from Central and Eastern Europe and reasons of migration provide the basis for assessing the extent of migration to be expected after an EU-accession of individual Central and Eastern European countries. Since economic motives can be assumed to be dominant, the income development differing between Western and Eastern Europe is central to this prognosis. Rather than the destination region, the region of origin, in particular rural areas, are focused on with respect to the economic effects of migration. The developments are illustrated with the example of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Making use of the complementarity of hydropower and variable renewable energy in Latin America: A probabilistic analysis

Latin America is one of the regions most vulnerable to the effects of climate variability on hydropower generation. Hydropower is the backbone of the Latin-American power system and a key technology for ensuring low-carbon power generation in the region. Despite its importance, our understanding of the impact and likelihood of seasonal variability and of long-term phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on hydropower is limited. There is an essential need to understand how likely these effects are and to identify measures to counterbalance them. A combination of wind, solar, and hydropower offers the potential to mitigate the impact of climate variability on renewable power generation and thus improve its reliability. Here we present a modeling framework to quantify the potential benefits of such combination. The modeling framework relies on a meteorological reanalysis dataset, large-scale renewable power generation models, and statistic models. We consider the countries with the largest hydropower capacity in the region, namely Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We examine whether the probability of a production deficit is reduced when all renewable resources are combined compared to a scenario based solely on hydropower, especially during droughts. The approach presented allows for the first time an in-depth analysis of the benefits of a combined wind, solar, and hydropower-based power generation under different geographical conditions in altered ENSO phases. Our results suggest that—depending on the country and the percentile—the hydropower generated during drought ENSO phases could be up to 50% lower than that during neutral phases. The countries most affected are Colombia and Venezuela, while the reduction is somewhat less severe in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Combining hydropower with variable renewable energy (VRE) offers the potential to reduce the risk of a power deficit during the 10th percentile of the driest months of the year, both in drought and neutral phases. Argentina is the country with the most effective combination of resources to mitigate a power deficit, as each MW of installed VRE generates 0.218 GWh of additional power. It is followed by Brazil and Mexico with 0.185 GWh per MW of VRE and by Venezuela and Colombia with 0.128–0.098 GWh/MW of VRE, respectively. These results can contribute to informing future decisions on capacity planning and regional transmission grids