Are economists getting climate dynamics right and does it matter?

We show that economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with current climate science models: (i) the delay between CO2 emissions and warming is much too long and (ii) positive carbon cycle feedbacks are mostly absent. These inconsistencies lead to biased economic policy advice. Controlling for how the economy is represented, different climate models result in significantly different optimal CO2 emissions. A long delay between emissions and warming leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low and attaches too much importance to the discount rate. Similarly we find that omitting positive carbon cycle feedbacks leads to optimal carbon prices that are too low. We conclude it is important for policy purposes to bring economic models in line with the state of the art in climate science and we make practical suggestions for how to do so

A human rights based approach to project induced displacement and resettlement

AbstractRespecting, protecting and fulfilling human rights must become more prominent in both the processes and outcomes of resettlement. We have developed a Human Rights-Based Approach to Resettlement for use by project operators, rights holders and governments so that they can better understand what the corporate responsibility to respect human rights entails in situations of involuntary resettlement and expropriation. We outline the procedural human rights principles and resettlement outcomes that must be achieved in order for resettlement to be considered human rights compliant. We also consider how human rights are addressed in the International Finance Corporation Performance Standard 5 on land acquisition and involuntary resettlement. We suggest that the International Finance Corporation?s largely silent approach towards the private sector?s human rights responsibilities potentially understates the significant human rights risks that characterize displacement and involuntary resettlement

Interpretation of results from on-farm experiments: manure-nitrogen recovery on grassland as affected by manure quality and application technique. 1. An agronomic analysis

In a 5-year field experiment, a comparison was made between the manure application practices of two adjacent dairy farms in the north of the Netherlands. Grassland management systems at Drogeham and Harkema contrasted in manure application technique (surface application versus shallow injection, respectively), quality of applied manure (slurry + MX: slurry with Euromestmix® clay mineral additive versus regular slurry), and some relevant site characteristics (high versus low soil organic matter content and soil moisture supply). Effects of manure types and application techniques, and treatment of the soil with a micro-organism supplement, were tested in a factorial experiment at the two sites, two blocks per site, one with and one without additional application of 157 kg N ha–1 year–1 inorganic fertilizer. Apparent N recovery was higher after shallow injection than after surface application. For plots receiving no additional inorganic fertilizer, this difference was largest for slurry + MX applied at site Harkema, since this slurry–site combination resulted in the highest observed average apparent N recovery following shallow injection (47%) and the lowest N recovery following surface application (20%). For plots receiving additional inorganic fertilizer N the contrasts between treatments were less pronounced. Year effects on N uptake and dry matter production could be related to cumulative temperature and precipitation surplus over the growing season. A simple comparison between the grassland management systems was carried out based on the response curves derived from the experiment. This demonstrated that the grassland system where slurry was applied by shallow injection is not necessarily the lowest in actual amount of N not accounted for (i.e., potentially lost). The efficiency of the Harkema system strongly depended on high N recovery, but showed high potential losses in some years and a high herbage crude protein content in other years, due to the low DM production capacity. On the other hand, the Drogeham system was tuned to high DM production and was characterized by higher system stability, as reflected by more stable relationships between DM production and N not accounted for and herbage crude protein content. These differences between the systems were probably to a large extent caused by differences in water balance and soil organic matter content

Interpretation of results from on-farm experiments: manure-nitrogen recovery on grassland as affected by manure quality and application technique. 2. A sociological analysis

This article discusses the outcomes of a re-analysis of a grassland experiment, by locating it within the wider institutional context composed of well-established routines used in agronomic research and the dominant epistemological tradition of agricultural sciences. It is argued that both, research routines and epistemological tradition, are strategic pillars of the reigning socio-technical regime. They contribute to path-dependency, thus reinforcing the uni-lateral development tendency centring on technological solutions that fit within the dominating regime. An important, albeit probably unintended consequence is that promising novelties are obscured within and through research, thus blocking a potentially highly effective road towards sustainability

Analysis of cosmid clones of nuclear DNA from Trypanosome brucei shows that the genes for variant surface glycoproteins are clustered in the genome.

Trypanosoma brucei contains more than a hundred genes coding for the different variant surface glycoproteins (VSGs). Activation of some of these genes involves the duplication of the gene (the basic copy or BC) and transposition of the duplicate to an expression site (yielding the expression-linked copy or ELC). We have cloned large fragments of genomic DNA in cosmid vectors in Escherichia coli. Cosmids containing the BCs of genes 117, 118 and 121 were readily obtained, but DNA containing the ELCs was strongly selected against in the cosmid and plasmid cloning systems used. We have analysed the distribution of VSG genes in the genome using probes for the sequences at the edges of the transposed segment which are partially homologous among these genes. In genomic cosmid clone banks, about 9% of all colonies hybridize with probes from the 5'- and 3'-edges of the transposed segment, showing that these sequences are linked in the genome. Moreover, the 117 and 118 BC cosmids contain several additional putative VSG genes in tandem, as deduced from hybridization and sequence analyses. We conclude that the VSG genes are highly clustered and share common sequences at the borders of the transposed segment

Prediction of survival with alternative modeling techniques using pseudo values

Background: The use of alternative modeling techniques for predicting patient survival is complicated by the fact that some alternative techniques cannot readily deal with censoring, which is essential for analyzing survival data. In the current study, we aimed to demonstrate that pseudo values enable statistically appropriate analyses of survival outcomes when used in seven alternative modeling techniques. Methods: In this case study, we analyzed survival of 1282 Dutch patients with newly diagnosed Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) with conventional Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. We subsequently calculated pseudo values to reflect the individual survival patterns. We used these pseudo values to compare recursive partitioning (RPART), neural nets (NNET), logistic regression (LR) general linear models (GLM) and three variants of support vector machines (SVM) with respect to dichotomous 60-month survival, and continuous pseudo values at 60 months or estimated survival time. We used the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the root of the mean squared error (RMSE) to compare the performance of these models using bootstrap validation. Results: Of a total of 1282 patients, 986 patients died during a median follow-up of 66 months (60-month survival: 52% [95% CI: 50%-55%]). The L

Physical activity in non-frail and frail older adults

Introduction: Physical activity (PA) is important for healthy ageing. Better insight into objectively measured PA levels in older adults is needed, since most previous studies employed self-report measures for PA assessment, which are associated with overestimation of PA. Aim: This study aimed to provide insight in objectively measured indoor and outdoor PA of older adults, and in PA differences by frailty levels. Methods: Data were collected among non-frail (N = 74) and frail (N = 10) subjects, aged 65 to 89 years. PA, measured for seven days with accelerometers and GPS-devices, was categorized into three levels of intensity (sedentary, light, and moderate-to-vigorous PA). Results: Older adults spent most time in sedentary and light PA. Subjects spent 84.7%, 15.1% and 0.2% per day in sedentary, light and moderate-to-vigorous PA respectively. On average, older adults spent 9.8 (SD 23.7) minutes per week in moderate-to-vigorous activity, and 747.0 (SD 389.6) minutes per week in light activity. None of the subjects met the WHO recommendations of 150 weekly minutes of moderate-to-vigorous PA. Age-, sex- and health status-adjusted results revealed no differences in PA between non-frail and frail older adults. Subjects spent significantly more sedentary time at home, than not at home. Non-frail subjects spent significantly more time not at home during moderate-to-vigorous activities, than at home. Conclusions: Objective assessment of PA in older adults revealed that most PA was of light intensity, and time spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA was very low. None of the older adults met the World Health Organization recommendations for PA. These levels of MVPA are much lower than generally reported based on self-reported PA. Future studies should employ objective methods, and age specific thresholds for healthy PA levels in older adults are needed. These results emphasize the need for effective strategies for healthy PA levels for the growing proportion of older adults

Evaluating Community-Based Intrathecal Baclofen Therapy:Effectiveness, Safety, and Feasibility

Background: Intrathecal baclofen (ITB) is used for the treatment of intractable spasticity. The burden of traveling for ITB screening and aftercare is problematic for nursing home residents with severe spasticity and seems to result in undertreatment of spasticity. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and feasibility of ITB for nursing home residents treated in their home, describing the selection phase, the initial trial of ITB, and aftercare up to 3 months after implantation of an ITB pump. Methods: This retrospective database study included immobile, adult nursing home residents with severe spasticity, referred to an Ambulatory Care Clinic between 2016 and 2021. When eligible, an ITB trial was performed by ITB experts in the nursing home. If a permanent pump was implanted, dose titration and aftercare were performed on location. Results: A total of 102 patients were referred; 80 underwent an ITB trial on location, and 94% improved significantly on the Modified Ashworth Scale and clonus scale pre-ITB trial versus post-ITB trial, as well as at 3 months post-implantation. There was a low incidence of adverse events, mostly procedure- and drug-related. Conclusions: This study indicates that selection, testing, and aftercare for ITB on location is effective and safe.</p

Sitting too much: a hierarchy of socio-demographic correlates

Too much sitting (extended sedentary time) is recognized as a public health concern in Europe and beyond. Time spent sedentary is influenced and conditioned by clusters of individual-level and contextual (upstream) factors. Identifying population subgroups that sit too much could help to develop targeted interventions to reduce sedentary time. We explored the relative importance of socio-demographic correlates of sedentary time in adults across Europe. We used data from 26,617 adults who participated in the 2013 Special Eurobarometer 412 "Sport and physical activity". Participants from all 28 EU Member States were randomly selected and interviewed face-to-face. Self-reported sedentary time was dichotomized into sitting less or >7.5h/day. A Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) algorithm was used to create a tree that hierarchically partitions the data on the basis of the independent variables (i.e., socio-demographic factors) into homogeneous (sub)groups with regard to sedentary time. This allows for the tentative identification of population segments at risk for unhealthy sedentary behaviour. Overall, 18.5% of the respondents reported sitting >7.5h/day. Occupation was the primary discriminator. The subgroup most likely to engage in extensive sitting were higher educated, had white-collar jobs, reported no difficulties with paying bills, and used the internet frequently. Clear socio-demographic profiles were identified for adults across Europe who engage in extended sedentary time. Furthermore, physically active participants were consistently less likely to engage in longer daily sitting times. In general, those with more indicators of higher wealth were more likely to spend more time sitting