182 research outputs found
Financial instability from local market measures
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial
market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different
(local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large
random markets using techniques borrowed from statistical mechanics of
disordered systems. We show that, depending on the number of financial
instruments available and on the heterogeneity of local measures, the market
moves from an arbitrage-free phase to an unstable one, where the complexity of
the market - as measured by the diversity of financial instruments - increases,
and arbitrage opportunities arise. A sharp transition separates the two phases.
Focusing on two different classes of local measures inspired by real markets
strategies, we are able to analytically compute the critical lines,
corroborating our findings with numerical simulations.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure
Heat release by controlled continuous-time Markov jump processes
We derive the equations governing the protocols minimizing the heat released
by a continuous-time Markov jump process on a one-dimensional countable state
space during a transition between assigned initial and final probability
distributions in a finite time horizon. In particular, we identify the
hypotheses on the transition rates under which the optimal control strategy and
the probability distribution of the Markov jump problem obey a system of
differential equations of Hamilton-Bellman-Jacobi-type. As the state-space mesh
tends to zero, these equations converge to those satisfied by the diffusion
process minimizing the heat released in the Langevin formulation of the same
problem. We also show that in full analogy with the continuum case, heat
minimization is equivalent to entropy production minimization. Thus, our
results may be interpreted as a refined version of the second law of
thermodynamics.Comment: final version, section 2.1 revised, 26 pages, 3 figure
Optimal Investment-Consumption Problem with Constraint
In this paper, we consider an optimal investment-consumption problem subject to a closed convex constraint. In the problem, a constraint is imposed on both the investment and the consumption strategy, rather than just on the investment. The existence of solution is established by using the Martingale technique and convex duality. In addition to investment, our technique embeds also the consumption into a family of fictitious markets. However, with the addition of consumption, it leads to nonreflexive dual spaces. This difficulty is overcome by employing the so-called technique of \relaxation-projection" to establish the existence of solution to the problem. Furthermore, if the solution to the dual problem is obtained, then the solution to the primal problem can be found by using the characterization of the solution. An illustrative example is given with a dynamic risk constraint to demonstrate the method
Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities
This paper shows that many of the empirical biases of the Black and Scholes option pricing model can be explained by Bayesian learning effects. In the context of an equilibrium model where dividend news evolve on a binomial lattice with unknown but recursively updated probabilities we derive closed-form pricing formulas for European options. Learning is found to generate asymmetric skews in the implied volatility surface and systematic patterns in the term structure of option prices. Data on S&P 500 index option prices is used to back out the parameters of the underlying learning process and to predict the evolution in the cross-section of option prices. The proposed model leads to lower out-of-sample forecast errors and smaller hedging errors than a variety of alternative option pricing models, including Black-Scholes and a GARCH model
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