Landscape composition and spatial prediction of alveolar echinococcosis in Southern Ningxia, China

Background: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) presents a serious public health challenge within China. Mass screening ultrasound surveys can detect pre-symptomatic AE, but targeting areas identified from hospital records is inefficient regarding AE. Prediction of undetected or emerging hotspots would increase detection rates. Voles and lemmings of the subfamily Arvicolinae are important intermediate hosts in sylvatic transmission systems. Their populations reach high densities in productive grasslands where food and cover are abundant. Habitat availability is thought to affect arvicoline population dynamic patterns and definitive host-intermediate host interactions. Arvicoline habitat correlates with AE prevalence in Western Europe and southern Gansu Province, China. Methods and Findings: Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, borders southern Gansu. The aims of this study were to map AE prevalence across Xiji and test arvicoline habitat as a predictor. Land cover was mapped using remotely sensed (Landsat) imagery. Infection status of 3,205 individuals screened in 2002-2003 was related, using generalised additive mixed models, to covariates: gender; farming; ethnicity; dog ownership; water source; and areal cover of mountain pasture and lowland pasture. A Markov random field modelled additional spatial variation and uncertainty. Mountain pasture and lowland pasture were associated with below and above average AE prevalence, respectively. Conclusions: Low values of the normalised difference vegetation index indicated sub-optimality of lowland pasture for grassland arvicolines. Unlike other known endemic areas, grassland arvicolines probably did not provide the principal reservoir for Echinococcus multilocularis in Xiji. This result is consistent with recent small mammal surveys reporting low arvicoline densities and high densities of hamsters, pikas and jerboas, all suitable intermediate hosts for E. multilocularis, in reforested lowland pasture. The risk of re-emergence is discussed. We recommend extending monitoring to: southern Haiyuan County, where predicted prevalence was high; southern Xiji County, where prediction uncertainty was high; and monitoring small mammal community dynamics and the infection status of dogs

Landscape Composition and Spatial Prediction of Alveolar Echinococcosis in Southern Ningxia, China

In humans, larvae of the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis typically infect the liver where metastasis, calcification and necrosis cause the zoonotic disease alveolar echinococcosis (AE). Treatment is difficult. Early detection greatly increases patient life expectancy but under-detection is a problem. Understanding the ecological conditions that elevate AE risk would help identify at-risk communities. Voles and lemmings of the subfamily Arvicolinae are important intermediate hosts in most AE endemic areas, and arvicoline habitat has been proposed as a predictor of AE risk. Using a model of spatial autocorrelation with land cover identified from satellite remote sensing imagery, we identified AE hotspots in southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), China. Hotspots were not located near optimal arvicoline habitats. Thus, non-arvicolines provide principal reservoirs in NHAR and the range of ecological conditions sustaining E. multilocularis transmission in China is greater than previously thought. We also show: social factors explain higher prevalence in females than males; dogs increase infection risk; and we argue that water source quality is important via interaction with other environmental variables. Our map of AE prevalence represents the current state-of-the-art regarding the spatial distribution of AE in southern NHAR and provides an important baseline for future monitoring programs there

The impact of vector migration on the effectiveness of strategies to control gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

BACKGROUND: Several modeling studies have been undertaken to assess the feasibility of the WHO goal of eliminating gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (g-HAT) by 2030. However, these studies have generally overlooked the effect of vector migration on disease transmission and control. Here, we evaluated the impact of vector migration on the feasibility of interrupting transmission in different g-HAT foci. METHODS: We developed a g-HAT transmission model of a single tsetse population cluster that accounts for migration of tsetse fly into this population. We used a model calibration approach to constrain g-HAT incidence to ranges expected for high, moderate and low transmission settings, respectively. We used the model to evaluate the effectiveness of current intervention measures, including medical intervention through enhanced screening and treatment, and vector control, for interrupting g-HAT transmission in disease foci under each transmission setting. RESULTS: We showed that, in low transmission settings, under enhanced medical intervention alone, at least 70% treatment coverage is needed to interrupt g-HAT transmission within 10 years. In moderate transmission settings, a combination of medical intervention and a vector control measure with a daily tsetse mortality greater than 0.03 is required to achieve interruption of disease transmission within 10 years. In high transmission settings, interruption of disease transmission within 10 years requires a combination of at least 70% medical intervention coverage and at least 0.05 tsetse daily mortality rate from vector control. However, the probability of achieving elimination in high transmission settings decreases with an increased tsetse migration rate. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the WHO 2030 goal of G-HAT elimination is, at least in theory, achievable. But the presence of tsetse migration may reduce the probability of interrupting g-HAT transmission in moderate and high transmission foci. Therefore, optimal vector control programs should incorporate monitoring and controlling of vector density in buffer areas around foci of g-HAT control efforts

Predator dietary response to prey density variation and consequences for cestode transmission

The functional response of predators to prey density variations has previously been investigated in order to understand predation patterns. However, the consequences of functional response on parasite transmission remain largely unexplored. The rodents Microtus arvalis and Arvicola terrestris are the main prey of the red fox Vulpes vulpes in eastern France. These species are intermediate and definitive hosts of the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis. We explored the dietary and contamination responses of the red fox to variations in prey density. The dietary response differed between the two prey species: no response for M. arvalis and a type III-like (sigmoidal) response for A. terrestris that shows possible interference with M. arvalis. The fox contamination response followed a type II shape (asymptotic) for both species. We conclude that fox predation is species specific and E. multilocularis transmission is likely to be regulated by a complex combination of predation and immunologic factors. These results should provide a better understanding of the biological and ecological mechanisms involved in the transmission dynamics of trophically transmitted parasites when multiple hosts are involved. The relevance of the models of parasite transmission should be enhanced if non-linear patterns are taken into account

A systematic review of the epidemiology of echinococcosis in domestic and wild animals

Human echinococcosis is a neglected zoonosis caused by parasites of the genus Echinococcus. The most frequent clinical forms of echinococcosis, cystic echinococcosis (CE) and alveolar echinococcosis (AE), are responsible for a substantial health and economic burden, particularly to low-income societies. Quantitative epidemiology can provide important information to improve the understanding of parasite transmission and hence is an important part of efforts to control this disease. The purpose of this review is to give an insight on factors associated with echinococcosis in animal hosts by summarising significant results reported from epidemiological studies identified through a systematic search.The systematic search was conducted mainly in electronic databases but a few additional records were obtained from other sources. Retrieved entries were examined in order to identify available peer-reviewed epidemiological studies that found significant risk factors for infection using associative statistical methods. One hundred studies met the eligibility criteria and were suitable for data extraction. Epidemiological factors associated with increased risk of E. granulosus infection in dogs included feeding with raw viscera, possibility of scavenging dead animals, lack of anthelmintic treatment and owners' poor health education and indicators of poverty. Key factors associated with E. granulosus infection in intermediate hosts were related to the hosts' age and the intensity of environmental contamination with parasite eggs. E. multilocularis transmission dynamics in animal hosts depended on the interaction of several ecological factors, such as hosts' population densities, host-prey interactions, landscape characteristics, climate conditions and human-related activities.Results derived from epidemiological studies provide a better understanding of the behavioural, biological and ecological factors involved in the transmission of this parasite and hence can aid in the design of more effective control strategies