Physical Flow Effects Can Dictate Plankton Population Dynamics

Oceanic flows do not necessarily mix planktonic species. Differences in individual organisms’ physical and hydrodynamic properties can cause changes in drift normal to the mean flow, leading to segregation between species. This physically-driven heterogeneity may have important consequences at the scale of population dynamics. Here, we describe how one form of physical forcing, circulating flows with different inertia effects between phytoplankton and zooplankton, can dramatically alter excitable plankton bloom dynamics. This may impact our understanding of the initiation and development of harmful algal blooms (HABs), which have significant negative ecological and socio-economic consequences. We study this system in detail, providing spatio-temporal dynamics for particular scenarios, and summarising large-scale behaviour via spatially averaged bifurcation diagrams. The key message is that, across a large range of parameter values, fluid flow can induce plankton blooms and mean-field population dynamics that are distinct from those predicted for well-mixed systems. The implications for oceanic population dynamic studies are manifest: we argue that the formation of HABs will depend strongly on the physical and biological state of the ecosystem, and that local increases in zooplankton heterogeneity are likely to precede phytoplankton bloom

Integrated testing strategies can be optimal for chemical risk classification.

There is an urgent need to refine strategies for testing the safety of chemical compounds. This need arises both from the financial and ethical costs of animal tests, but also from the opportunities presented by new in-vitro and in-silico alternatives. Here we explore the mathematical theory underpinning the formulation of optimal testing strategies in toxicology. We show how the costs and imprecisions of the various tests, and the variability in exposures and responses of individuals, can be assembled rationally to form a Markov Decision Problem. We compute the corresponding optimal policies using well developed theory based on Dynamic Programming, thereby identifying and overcoming some methodological and logical inconsistencies which may exist in the current toxicological testing. By illustrating our methods for two simple but readily generalisable examples we show how so-called integrated testing strategies, where information of different precisions from different sources is combined and where different initial test outcomes lead to different sets of future tests, can arise naturally as optimal policies

Heat the Clock : Entrainment and Compensation in Arabidopsis Circadian Rhythms

The circadian clock is a biological mechanism that permits some organisms to anticipate daily environmental variations. This clock generates biological rhythms, which can be reset by environmental cues such as cycles of light or temperature, a process known as entrainment. After entrainment, circadian rhythms typically persist with approximately 24 hours periodicity in free-running conditions i.e. in the absence of environmental cues. Experimental evidence also shows that a free-running period close to 24 hours is maintained across a range of temperatures, a process known as temperature compensation. In the plant Arabidopsis, the effect of light on the circadian system has been widely studied and successfully modelled mathematically. However, the role of temperature in periodicity, and the relationships between entrainment and compensation, are not fully understood. Here we adapt recent models to incorporate temperature dependence by applying Arrhenius equations to the parameters of the models that characterize transcription, translation, and degradation rates. We show that the resulting models can exhibit thermal entrainment and temperature compensation, but that these phenomena emerge from physiologically different sets of processes. Further simulations combining thermal and photic forcing in more realistic scenarios clearly distinguish between the processes of entrainment and compensation, and reveal temperature compensation as an emergent property which can arise as a result of multiple temperature-dependent interactions. Our results consistently point to the thermal sensitivity of degradation rates as driving compensation and entrainment across a range of conditions

Wavelet spectral testing : application to nonstationary circadian rhythms

Rhythmic data are ubiquitous in the life sciences. Biologists need reliable statistical tests to identify whether a particular experimental treatment has caused a significant change in a rhythmic signal. When these signals display nonstationary behaviour, as is common in many biological systems, the established methodologies may be misleading. Therefore, there is a real need for new methodology that enables the formal comparison of nonstationary processes. As circadian behaviour is best understood in the spectral domain, here we develop novel hypothesis testing procedures in the (wavelet) spectral domain, embedding replicate information when available. The data are modelled as realisations of locally stationary wavelet processes, allowing us to define and rigorously estimate their evolutionary wavelet spectra. Motivated by three complementary applications in circadian biology, our new methodology allows the identification of three specific types of spectral difference. We demonstrate the advantages of our methodology over alternative approaches, by means of a comprehensive simulation study and real data applications, using both published and newly generated circadian datasets. In contrast to the current standard methodologies, our method successfully identifies differences within the motivating circadian datasets, and facilitates wider ranging analyses of rhythmic biological data in general

Development of a Kemp\u27s Ridley Sea Turtle Stock Assessment Model

We developed a Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) stock assessment model to evaluate the relative contributions of conservation efforts and other factors toward this critically endangered species’ recovery. The Kemp’s ridley demographic model developed by the Turtle Expert Working Group (TEWG) in 1998 and 2000 and updated for the binational recovery plan in 2011 was modified for use as our base model. The TEWG model uses indices of the annual reproductive population (number of nests) and hatchling recruitment to predict future annual numbers of nests on the basis of a series of assumptions regarding age and maturity, remigration interval, sex ratios, nests per female, juvenile mortality, and a putative ‘‘turtle excluder device effect’’ multiplier starting in 1990. This multiplier was necessary to fit the number of nests observed in 1990 and later. We added the effects of shrimping effort directly, modified by habitat weightings, as a proxy for all sources of anthropogenic mortality. Additional data included in our model were incremental growth of Kemp’s ridleys marked and recaptured in the Gulf of Mexico, and the length frequency of stranded Kemp’s ridleys. We also added a 2010 mortality factor that was necessary to fit the number of nests for 2010 and later (2011 and 2012). Last, we used an empirical basis for estimating natural mortality, on the basis of a Lorenzen mortality curve and growth estimates. Although our model generated reasonable estimates of annual total turtle deaths attributable to shrimp trawling, as well as additional deaths due to undetermined anthropogenic causes in 2010, we were unable to provide a clear explanation for the observed increase in the number of stranded Kemp’s ridleys in recent years, and subsequent disruption of the species’ exponential growth since the 2009 nesting season. Our consensus is that expanded data collection at the nesting beaches is needed and of high priority, and that 2015 be targeted for the next stock assessment to evaluate the 2010 event using more recent nesting and in-water data