Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis

Theoretical models point at various channels of the impact of inflation on corporate investment. This article attempts to answer the question what are the direction and strength of this possible impact examining the relationship between corporate investment and inflation on the sample of 21 OECD countries in the years 1960-2005. The obtained negative relationship, statistically and economically significant, proves robust to changes in the specification of the estimated equation, estimators, frequency of variables used in the study and analysed period. Moreover, the results obtained suggest nonlinear character of this relationship: marginal effect on corporate investment is higher at inflation rates between 3 and 5.5 per cent. These results suggest that the impact of inflation on corporate investment dynamics may be the source of nonlinear nature of the relationship between GDP growth and inflation identified in previous empirical studies. Finally, taking into account the direct impact of inflation on investment, variables approximating the cost of capital utilisation prove to be statistically insignificant determinants of corporate investment.investment; inflation; panel data models; monetary policy

Inflation and investment in monetary growth models

The article contains a review of monetary growth models. We analyze the ways in which money is introduced into these models and the models’ conclusions about the impact of inflation on investment. We find that the models differ widely with respect to the ways in which they account for money and its functions in the economy as well as with respect to the “technical” assumptions, about e.g. the form of the utility function or the production function. Despite these differences most models fail to adequately capture money’s role and are highly sensitive to changes in the assumptions. Moreover, the models differ in their predictions about inflation’s impact on capital accumulation, with some models offering conclusions that are not only counterintuitive but also inconsistent with empirical evidence.investment, inflation, monetary models of growth, monetary search theoretic models

Inflation and corporate investment – a critical survey

The analysis of inflation’s effect on investment can contribute to a deeper understanding of the benefits of a monetary policy oriented towards price stability. It can also help conduct such a policy effectively. We begin with a review of conclusions about the inflation-investment relationship that can be drawn from traditional monetary models with exogenous growth and no market imperfections. As these conclusions are ambiguous, models of this type could lead economic decision-makers to fail to take proper account of inflation’s impact on investment. We then survey research which, contrary to monetary exogenous growth models, takes account of market imperfections such as the asymmetry of information, uncertainty and nominal rigidities in the tax system. The analysis of the significance of these imperfections for the direction and magnitude of the relationship between inflation and investment forms the bulk of the article. We highlight, on the one hand, the key assumptions of the particular theories (and whether they are in keeping with stylized facts), and, on the other hand, the difficulties that empirical research faces when trying to verify the conclusions from these theories. Finally, we offer some conclusions on the basis of the conducted survey.investment, inflation, monetary growth models, asymmetry of information, uncertainty, taxes

The new wave of polish migration after EU enlargement - current state, determinants and outlook

Following Poland’s accession to the EU there has been a major change in outward migration patterns from Poland. In the last three years Poland has witnessed an increased outflow of workers, especially to Great Britain and Ireland, two countries that opened up their labour markets as early as in May 2004. By analyzing different sources of data we try to obtain a fairly consistent view of the scale of migration from Poland to these two countries and of the profile of Polish migrants with respect to such characteristics as age, education, jobs held in the country of immigration, earnings, intended length of stay and reasons for migration. In light of the theories of migration, empirical evidence as well as results of recent surveys of Poles working in Britain and Ireland, the wage-differential between Poland and the two destination countries of migration appears to be a valid explanation for the recent post-accession wave of migration. Given this result we run a simulation of development of wages in Poland, the UK and Ireland to find out if the ‘wage-differential’ motive for migration is likely to be influential in the coming years. We find that this motive is unlikely to lose significance, even despite the rapid growth of Polish wages in the last few months.international migration, determinants of migration, Poland, enlargement, European Union

Panel data evidence on non-Keynesian efects of fiscal policy in the EU New Member

There is growing evidence that fiscal consolidation may contribute to economic growth even in the short term. In this paper we review recent research on such non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects and apply panel data econometric techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the EU New Member States. We extend the analysis to test potential channels through which non-Keynesian effects may operate. The results confirm that composition of the consolidation determines the output response. Moreover, we find evidence that all types of fiscal consolidations stimulate private investments, while export acceleration is observed only when consolidations involve mostly expenditure curtailment. Private consumption reaction to fiscal policy shows signs of nonlinearity - in the case of minor adjustments Keynesian effects dominate, but they are cancelled out when sizable consolidations are considered.fiscal consolidation, non-Keynesian efects, New Member States, panel data

ROLA SYSTEMU PODATKOWEGO PRZED, W TRAKCIE I PO KRYZYSIE FINANSOWYM

The aim of this paper is to sum up the most recent results of a survey carried out to analyse the role which the system of taxation played in subsequent phases of the financial crisis that started in 2008. As can be seen from the obtained data that role has been substantially changing: (1) prior to the crisis the tax incentives that the system made available to business entities gave rise to even greater economic imbalance which later became one of the elements that laid the basis for the crisis; (2) when the crisis started, the stabilisation role of the taxation system prevailed and operated through the working of so called automatic stabilisers as well as through discretionary changes of tax burdens; and (3) currently, the taxation system is being modified to support the process of fiscal consolidation expected to be implemented in the coming years in the economies of developed and some developing countries.Celem niniejszego artykułu jest podsumowanie najnowszych wyników badań analizujących rolę systemu podatkowego w kolejnych fazach kryzysu zapoczątkowanego w 2008 r. Przeprowadzona w opracowaniu analiza wskazuje, że jego rola ulegała istotnym zmianom: 1) przed wybuchem kryzysu stwarzał bodźce do takich zachowań podmiotów gospodarczych, które przyczyniały się do narastania nierównowagi leżącej u podstaw kryzysu; 2) po jego wybuchu wzrosło znaczenie stabilizacyjne systemu podatkowego: zarówno w obszarze oddziaływania tak zwanych automatycznych stabilizatorów, jak i dyskrecjonalnych zmian obciążeń podatkowych; 3) obecnie zmiany systemu podatkowego zmierzają w kierunku wsparcia procesu konsolidacji fiskalnej oczekiwanej w najbliższych latach w wielu gospodarkach rozwiniętych i w części krajów rozwijających się

Inflation and investment in monetary growth models

The article contains a review of monetary growth models. We analyze the ways in which money is introduced into these models and the models’ conclusions about the impact of inflation on investment. We find that the models differ widely with respect to the ways in which they account for money and its functions in the economy as well as with respect to the “technical” assumptions, about e.g. the form of the utility function or the production function. Despite these differences most models fail to adequately capture money’s role and are highly sensitive to changes in the assumptions. Moreover, the models differ in their predictions about inflation’s impact on capital accumulation, with some models offering conclusions that are not only counterintuitive but also inconsistent with empirical evidence

Inflation targeting and its discontents: The case of Poland

The paper provides a general evaluation of inflation targeting in Poland with some reference to challenges faced by major central banks. First, it argues that inflation targeting has proved to be relatively successful in Poland and attributes this success to a bias towards the aggressive mitigation of inflationary risks, whenever they have arisen. Second, it briefly explains why the National Bank of Poland does not need to search for an alternative to inflation targeting. Then, it presents the negative aspects of the price level targeting and nominal GDP targeting. Third, it refers to the post- EU accession experience of Poland as being supportive for the “leaning against the wind” approach to monetary policy conducting. Fourth, it argues that such an approach is supported by evidence on the effects of the crisis’ outburst and aggressive interest rate cuts on trust in central banks. Fifth, it indicates the determinants of slow post-crisis restructuring and persistently high uncertainty as desired priorities in the research agenda in central banks

Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis

Theoretical models point at various channels of the impact of inflation on corporate investment. This article attempts to answer the question what are the direction and strength of this possible impact examining the relationship between corporate investment and inflation on the sample of 21 OECD countries in the years 1960-2005. The obtained negative relationship, statistically and economically significant, proves robust to changes in the specification of the estimated equation, estimators, frequency of variables used in the study and analysed period. Moreover, the results obtained suggest nonlinear character of this relationship: marginal effect on corporate investment is higher at inflation rates between 3 and 5.5 per cent. These results suggest that the impact of inflation on corporate investment dynamics may be the source of nonlinear nature of the relationship between GDP growth and inflation identified in previous empirical studies. Finally, taking into account the direct impact of inflation on investment, variables approximating the cost of capital utilisation prove to be statistically insignificant determinants of corporate investment