Flow Structure and Channel Stability at the Site of a Deep Scour Hole, Mackenzie Delta, Canada

Unusually deep scour holes in distributary channels of the Mackenzie Delta are of concern for oil and gas resource development, particularly with respect to buried pipeline crossings. Surveys of one such hole, carried out in 1985 and 1992, indicated vertical stability and slight lateral movement. The present study examines how the hole may have changed by the mid-2000s and documents the complex local velocity field and related bed material properties. Small discrepancies between isobaths of different years suggest a dynamic stability that involves short-term fluctuations in erosion and deposition. This suggestion was corroborated by detailed measurements of the highly three-dimensional velocity field, which revealed major eddy structures and flow reversals that help maintain sizeable velocity magnitudes despite low mean velocities. The composition of the bed material suggests cohesive behaviour, but the literature indicates a range of critical shear stresses that spans two orders of magnitude. The more probable lower end of this range is consistent with the observed dynamic stability of the scour hole.Des fosses d’affouillement exceptionnellement profondes se trouvant dans les effluents du delta du Mackenzie risquent de poser des problèmes en matière de mise en valeur des ressources pétrolières et gazières, surtout en ce qui a trait aux pipelines enfouis. Selon les levés d’une de ces fosses effectués en 1985 et en 1992, cette fosse serait verticalement stable et aurait un léger mouvement latéral. La présente étude se penche sur la façon dont la fosse pourrait avoir changé une fois rendu vers le milieu des années 2000 et documente le champ de vitesse local complexe de même que les propriétés des matériaux de fond connexes. De petits écarts entre les isobathes de différentes années laissent entrevoir une stabilité dynamique assortie de fluctuations à court terme sur le plan de l’érosion et de la déposition. Cette suggestion a été corroborée à l’aide de mesures détaillées du champ de vitesse hautement tridimensionnel, qui a révélé d’importantes structures à grands tourbillons et des écoulements de retour qui favorisent le maintien d’intensités de vitesse appréciables malgré des vélocités moyennes faibles. Bien que la composition des matériaux de fond suggère un comportement cohésif, la documentation indique une gamme de contraintes de cisaillement critique qui s’étend sur deux ordres de grandeur. Le bas de cette gamme plus probable est conforme à la stabilité dynamique observée à l’égard de la fosse d’affouillement

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently the use of insurance to manage climate related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focussed reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include, drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. A ‘climate and agricultural risk assessment and reporting tool’ (prototype) was developed as part of the project. This ‘tool’ allows quantification of key climate risks, initially for the sugar and cotton industry. The tool provides an option to generate a detail climate risk report based on historical data and a future seasonal climate forecast for an individual location. The tool data also serves as a dataset portal, allowing for the download of data in a required template. Cotton and sugarcane crop models APSIM and DSSAT were employed to simulate the growth and yield for 10 and 12 sites, respectively, across Queensland over the period 1940-2017 for various crop management factors. Comparing the simulated yields (from each model or the mean simulated value from ensemble models) to the observed yield (available at regional scale) the trend in year to year variability is satisfactorily captured for cotton on average, whereas for sugarcane there is a trend to overestimate or underestimate the yield depending on the site. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December. Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers to better appreciate the insurance mechanisms

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently, the use of insurance to manage climate-related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focused reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during the season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for the sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers

Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report

Queensland farmers are subject to highly variable climatic conditions, including drought and floods, which can undermine production. Insurance could play an important role in helping Queensland farmers manage their climate risk. However, currently the use of insurance to manage climate related production risk is poorly understood and utilised by farmers. This project aims to address this gap by providing information on climate risks and the role of insurance for managing these. This project conducted focussed reviews on climate risk in agriculture and on how insurance products could be used to address these risks. The project also carried out on-ground surveys from cotton and sugar industry and conducted modelling to assess risks and the role of insurance for cotton and sugar cane farmers in Queensland. Prototype climate assessment risk and reporting tools were also developed. The reviews carried out in this project identified that Queensland’s agricultural sector is highly exposed to production volatility as a result of weather risks. It is our view that the Queensland agricultural sector has an excellent opportunity to provide its farmers with protection against uninsured seasonal risks to crop production. Key climate and farming systems risks were identified by interviewing a total of 55 farmers (23 cotton growers and 32 sugar cane growers) across Queensland. Key climate risks to the cotton industry include hail, drought/dry years (lack of rainfall during planting and season), quality downgrade (discolouration), excessive heat, floods and wet weather (during season and especially during harvest). Similarly, for the sugar industry, key climate risks include, drought, flood, excessive rainfall during harvest, cyclone, pests and disease. Key messages from farmer surveys are that current insurance products available to Queensland farmers (specifically, cotton and sugar cane farmers) may not address critical risks to the production and/or profitability of these systems and that farmers would prefer to have comprehensive insurance products available that cover them against profitability losses across multiple risk factors. A ‘climate and agricultural risk assessment and reporting tool’ (prototype) was developed as part of the project. This ‘tool’ allows quantification of key climate risks, initially for the sugar and cotton industry. The tool provides an option to generate a detail climate risk report based on historical data and a future seasonal climate forecast for an individual location. The tool data also serves as a dataset portal, allowing for the download of data in a required template. Cotton and sugarcane crop models APSIM and DSSAT were employed to simulate the growth and yield for 10 and 12 sites, respectively, across Queensland over the period 1940-2017 for various crop management factors. Comparing the simulated yields (from each model or the mean simulated value from ensemble models) to the observed yield (available at regional scale) the trend in year to year variability is satisfactorily captured for cotton on average, whereas for sugarcane there is a trend to overestimate or underestimate the yield depending on the site. Based on survey findings three prototype insurance products were developed for the cotton industry Insurance products developed were Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during the planting season – August to November; Drought Cover: insufficient rainfall during growing season – November to February; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – March to June. Two prototype insurance products were developed for sugar industry. They include; Cyclone Cover: crop damage during cyclone season – November to April; and Wet Harvest Cover: excessive rainfall during harvest season – June to December. Rainfall-indexed based worked examples were also developed for sugar and cotton industry growers to better appreciate the insurance mechanisms

Delivering stepped care: an analysis of implementation in routine practice

addresses: Mood Disorders Centre, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QG, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3283464types: Journal Article; Multicenter Study; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't© 2012 Richards et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.In the United Kingdom, clinical guidelines recommend that services for depression and anxiety should be structured around a stepped care model, where patients receive treatment at different 'steps,' with the intensity of treatment (i.e., the amount and type) increasing at each step if they fail to benefit at previous steps. There are very limited data available on the implementation of this model, particularly on the intensity of psychological treatment at each step. Our objective was to describe patient pathways through stepped care services and the impact of this on patient flow and management

Health, education, and social care provision after diagnosis of childhood visual disability

Aim: To investigate the health, education, and social care provision for children newly diagnosed with visual disability.Method: This was a national prospective study, the British Childhood Visual Impairment and Blindness Study 2 (BCVIS2), ascertaining new diagnoses of visual impairment or severe visual impairment and blindness (SVIBL), or equivalent vi-sion. Data collection was performed by managing clinicians up to 1-year follow-up, and included health and developmental needs, and health, education, and social care provision.Results: BCVIS2 identified 784 children newly diagnosed with visual impairment/SVIBL (313 with visual impairment, 471 with SVIBL). Most children had associated systemic disorders (559 [71%], 167 [54%] with visual impairment, and 392 [84%] with SVIBL). Care from multidisciplinary teams was provided for 549 children (70%). Two-thirds (515) had not received an Education, Health, and Care Plan (EHCP). Fewer children with visual impairment had seen a specialist teacher (SVIBL 35%, visual impairment 28%, χ2p < 0.001), or had an EHCP (11% vs 7%, χ2p < 0 . 01).Interpretation: Families need additional support from managing clinicians to access recommended complex interventions such as the use of multidisciplinary teams and educational support. This need is pressing, as the population of children with visual impairment/SVIBL is expected to grow in size and complexity.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo