Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections

Printed Stretchable Graphene Conductors for Wearable Technology

Skin-compatible printed stretchable conductors that combine a low gauge factor with a high durability over many strain cycles are still a great challenge. Here, a graphene nanoplatelet-based colloidal ink utilizing a skin-compatible thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) binder with adjustable rheology is developed. Stretchable conductors that remain conductive even under 100% strain and demonstrate high fatigue resistance to cyclic strains of 20-50% are realized via printing on TPU. The sheet resistances of these conductors after drying at 120 °C are as low as 34 ω □ -1mil -1. Furthermore, photonic annealing at several energy levels is used to decrease the sheet resistance to <10 ω □ -1mil -1, with stretchability and fatigue resistance being preserved and tunable. The high conductivity, stretchability, and cyclic stability of printed tracks having excellent feature definition in combination with scalable ink production and adjustable rheology bring the high-volume manufacturing of stretchable wearables into scope

Polymorphisms in the superoxide dismutase-3 gene are associated with emphysema in COPD

Superoxide dismutase-3 (SOD3) is a major extracellular antioxidant enzyme, and previous studies have indicated a possible role of this gene in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We hypothesized that polymorphisms in the SOD3 gene would be associated with COPD and COPD-related phenotypes. We genotyped three SOD3 polymorphisms (rs8192287 (E1), rs8192288 (I1), and rs1799895 (R213G)) in a case-control cohort, with severe COPD cases from the National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT, n = 389) and smoking controls from the Normative Aging Study (NAS, n = 472). We examined whether the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were associated with COPD status, lung function variables, and quantitative computed tomography (CT) measurements of emphysema and airway wall thickness. Furthermore, we tried to replicate our initial findings in two family-based studies, the International COPD Genetics Network (ICGN, n = 3061) and the Boston Early-Onset COPD Study (EOCOPD, n = 949). In NETT COPD cases, the minor alleles of SNPs E1 and I1 were associated with a higher percentage of emphysema (%LAA950) on chest CT scan (p = .029 and p = .0058). The association with E1 was replicated in the ICGN family study, where the minor allele was associated with more emphysema (p = .048). Airway wall thickness was positively associated with the E1 SNP in ICGN; however, this finding was not confirmed in NETT. Quantitative CT data were not available in EOCOPD. The SNPs were not associated with lung function variables or COPD status in any of the populations. In conclusion, polymorphisms in the SOD3 gene were associated with CT emphysema but not COPD susceptibility, highlighting the importance of phenotype definition in COPD genetics studies