Impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on poverty: sensitivity of results to factors mobility among sectors

The Purposes of this paper are twofold (i) to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect labor markets are considered, (ii) to evaluate the impact of the recent reforms of the European agricultural policy on the world welfare. The results of two versions of a dynamic world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using the GTAP database version 6 are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed with perfect labor mobility across sectors. In the second version we assume that labor shifts freely within the aggregated sectors -agriculture, manufactures, services- but not across them .After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented not only by the world GDP but also by the consumption level of two types of households (middle-low and middle-high) in 7 regions (Brazil, China, India, Least developed countries, European Union, United States, Rest of the World) after partial trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade,

Possible regional impacts of agricultural trade liberalization in Brazil: some insights based on the estimation of soybean supply function

An important debate exists on whether soybean expansion in Brazil is responsible for putting more pressure on the Amazon forest or if it allows land use intensification through the recuperation of degraded pasture. In this paper, we estimate regional soybean supply own and cross price elasticity in order to better assess the possible impacts of agricultural trade liberalization in old and new soybean production basins. Applying a panel data estimation technique, we find large substitution supply elasticity between soybean and beef in Brazil Moreover, own price elasticity of soybean supply is much higher in Cerrados regions that in the South of the country. These results allow to discuss possible regional consequences of soybean trade liberalization on the Amazon forest. The current movements to promote sustainable and responsible soybean production in Brazil could certainly modify the future response of the sector to trade liberalization and its long term impacts.International Relations/Trade,

Impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on poverty : Sensitivity of results to factors mobility among sectors

The Purposes of this paper are twofold (i) to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect labor markets are considered, (ii) to evaluate the impact of the recent reforms of the European agricultural policy on the world welfare. The results of two versions of a dynamic world computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using the GTAP database version 6 are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed with perfect labor mobility across sectors. In the second version we assume that labor shifts freely within the aggregated sectors -agriculture, manufactures, services- but not across them .After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented not only by the world GDP but also by the consumption level of two types of households (middle-low and middle-high) in 7 regions (Brazil, China, India, Least developed countries, European Union, United States, Rest of the World) after partial trade liberalization are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed. (Résumé d'auteur