Evolution of the hydro-climate system in the Lake Baikal basin

SummaryClimatic changes can profoundly alter hydrological conditions in river basins. Lake Baikal is the deepest and largest freshwater reservoir on Earth, and has a unique ecosystem with numerous endemic animal and plant species. We here identify long-term historical (1938–2009) and projected future hydro-climatic trends in the Selenga River Basin, which is the largest sub-basin (>60% inflow) of Lake Baikal. Our analysis is based on long-term river monitoring and historical hydro-climatic observation data, as well as ensemble mean and 22 individual model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). Study of the latter considers a historical period (from 1961) and projections for 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. Observations show almost twice as fast warming as the global average during the period 1938–2009. Decreased intra-annual variability of river discharge over this period indicates basin-scale permafrost degradation. CMIP5 ensemble projections show further future warming, implying continued permafrost thaw. Modelling of runoff change, however, is highly uncertain, with many models (64%) and their ensemble mean failing to reproduce historical behaviour, and with indicated future increase being small relative to the large differences among individual model results

Projecting impacts of climate change on metal mobilization at contaminated sites: Controls by the groundwater level

Heavy metal and metalloid contamination of topsoils from atmospheric deposition and release from landfills, agriculture, and industries is a widespread problem that is estimated to affect >50% of the EU\u27s land surface. Influx of contaminants from soil to groundwater and their further downstream spread and impact on drinking water quality constitute a main exposure risk to humans. There is increasing concern that the present contaminant loading of groundwater and surface water systems may be altered, and potentially aggravated, by ongoing climate change, through large-scale impacts on recharge and groundwater levels. We investigated this issue by performing hydrogeological-geochemical model projections of changes in metal(loid) (As and Pb) mobilization in response to possible (climate-driven) future shifts in groundwater level and fluctuation amplitudes. We used observed initial conditions and boundary conditions for contaminated soils in the temperate climate zone. The results showed that relatively modest increases (0.2 m) in average levels of shallow groundwater systems, which may occur in Northern Europe within the coming two decades, can increase mass flows of metals through groundwater by a factor of 2–10. There is a similar risk of increased metal mobilization in regions subject to increased (seasonal or event-scale) amplitude of groundwater levels fluctuations. Neglecting groundwater level dynamics in predictive models can thus lead to considerable and systematic underestimation of metal mobilization and future changes. More generally, our results suggest that the key to quantifying impacts of climate change on metal mobilization is to understand how the contact between groundwater and the highly water-conducting and geochemically heterogeneous topsoil layers will change in the future

Using simulation to calibrate real data acquisition in veterinary medicine

This paper explores the innovative use of simulation environments to enhance data acquisition and diagnostics in veterinary medicine, focusing specifically on gait analysis in dogs. The study harnesses the power of Blender and the Blenderproc library to generate synthetic datasets that reflect diverse anatomical, environmental, and behavioral conditions. The generated data, represented in graph form and standardized for optimal analysis, is utilized to train machine learning algorithms for identifying normal and abnormal gaits. Two distinct datasets with varying degrees of camera angle granularity are created to further investigate the influence of camera perspective on model accuracy. Preliminary results suggest that this simulation-based approach holds promise for advancing veterinary diagnostics by enabling more precise data acquisition and more effective machine learning models. By integrating synthetic and real-world patient data, the study lays a robust foundation for improving overall effectiveness and efficiency in veterinary medicine

Data for wetlandscapes and their changes around the world

Geography and associated hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes determine the states and dynamics of wetlands and their ecosystem services. The influences of these controls are not limited to just the local scale of each individual wetland but extend over larger landscape areas that integrate multiple wetlands and their total hydrological catchment – the wetlandscape. However, the data and knowledge of conditions and changes over entire wetlandscapes are still scarce, limiting the capacity to accurately understand and manage critical wetland ecosystems and their services under global change. We present a new Wetlandscape Change Information Database (WetCID), consisting of geographic, hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use information and data for 27 wetlandscapes around the world. This combines survey-based local information with geographic shapefiles and gridded datasets of large-scale hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes over whole wetlandscapes. Temporally, WetCID contains 30-year time series of data for mean monthly precipitation and temperature and annual land-use conditions. The survey-based site information includes local knowledge on the wetlands, hydrology, hydroclimate and land uses within each wetlandscape and on the availability and accessibility of associated local data. This novel database (available through PANGAEA https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.907398; Ghajarnia et al., 2019) can support site assessments; cross-regional comparisons; and scenario analyses of the roles and impacts of land use, hydroclimatic and wetland conditions, and changes in whole-wetlandscape functions and ecosystem services

Sediment transport from source to sink in the Lake Baikal basin : Impacts of hydroclimatic change and mining

Different magnitude, intensity and timing of precipitation can impact runoff, hillslope erosion and transport of sediment along river channels.  Human activities, such as dam construction and surface mining can also considerably influence transport of sediment and sediment-bound contaminants. Many river basins of the world are currently subject to changes in climate at the same time as pressures from other human activities increase. However, because there are often complex interactions between such multiple drivers of change, it is challenging to understand and quantify contributions of individual drivers, which is needed in predictive modelling of future sediment and contaminant flows. This thesis considers sediment transport in the Lake Baikal basin, which is hydrologically dominated by the transboundary Selenga River of Russia and Mongolia. The Selenga River basin is, for instance, subject to climate change and increasing pressures from mining, but process complexity is reduced by the fact that the river basin is one of few large basins in the world that still is essentially undammed and unregulated. A combination of field measurement campaigns and modelling methods are used in this thesis, with the aim to: (i) identify historical hydroclimatic trends and their possible causes, (ii) analyse the spatial variability of riverine sediment loading in the mining affected areas, and (iii) investigate sediment transport and storage processes within river channels and in river deltas. Results show that, during the period 1938-2009, the annual maximum daily flow in the Selenga River basin has decreased, as well as the annual number of high flow events, whereas the annual minimum daily flow has increased. These changes in discharge characteristics are consistent with expected impacts of basin-scale permafrost thaw. Both field observations and modelling results show that changes in magnitude and number of high-flow events can considerably influence the transport of bed sediment. In addition, the average discharge has decreased in the past 20 years due to an extended drought. Under conditions of low flow, metal-enriched sediment from mining areas was observed to dominate the river water. If discharge will continue to decrease in the Selenga River (or other mining-impacted rivers of the world), further increases in riverine metal concentrations may hence be one of the consequences. Furthermore, under current conditions of extended drought, less sediment may have been distributed over the floodplain wetlands in the Selenga River delta. Present estimates, however, show that sediment can still be transported to, and deposited within, the banks and water bodies located in the backwater zone of the Selenga River delta. This can aid bank and levee stabilization, support the development of wetlands and foster net sedimentation.​Nederbördens olika magnitud, intensitet och tidpunkt kan påverka ytavrinning, vattenerosion och transport av sediment längs flodkanaler. Mänskliga aktiviteter, som dammkonstruktion och gruvdrift i dagbrott kan också påtagligt påverka transport av sediment och sedimentbundna föroreningar. Många avrinningsområden i världen påverkas för närvarande av klimatförändringar samtidigt som trycket från andra mänskliga aktiviteter ökar. Men eftersom det ofta förekommer komplexa interaktioner mellan sådana multipla orsaker till förändring, är det utmanande att förstå och kvantifiera bidrag från enskilda orsaker, vilket behövs vid prediktiv modellering av framtida sediment- och föroreningsflöden. Denna avhandling behandlar sedimenttransport i Bajkalsjöns tillrinningsområde, som hydrologiskt domineras av den internationella Selengafloden i Ryssland och Mongoliet. Selengaflodens tillrinningsområde är exempelvis påverkat av klimatförändringar och ökat tryck från gruvdrift, men processkomplexiteten reduceras av det faktum att tillrinningsområdet är ett av världens få stora som fortfarande väsentligen saknar dammar och flödesreglering. I denna avhandling används en kombination av fältmätningskampanjer och modelleringsmetoder, i syfte att: (i) identifiera historiska hydroklimattrender och deras möjliga orsaker, (ii) analysera den rumsliga variationen i flodens sedimentbelastning inom de gruvpåverkade områdena, och (iii) undersöka sedimenttransport- och retentionsprocesser inom flodkanaler och i floddeltan. Resultaten visar att det årliga maximala dygnsflödet, liksom det årliga antalet högflödeshändelser, har minskat i Selengafloden under perioden 1938-2009, medan det årliga minimala dygnsflödet har ökat. Dessa förändringar i flödeskaraktäristika överensstämmer med förväntade effekter av storskaligt tinande permafrost. Både fältobservationer och modelleringsresultat visar att förändringar i högflödeshändelsers magnitud och årligt antal kan påverka transporten av bottensediment påtagligt. Dessutom har medelflödet minskat under de senaste 20 åren på grund av långvarig torka. Under lågflöden observerades metallberikat sediment från gruvområdena dominera flodvattnet. Om flödena fortsätter att minska i Selengafloden (eller andra gruvdriftspåverkade floder i världen), kan således ytterligare ökningar av flodvattnens metallkoncentrationer vara en av konsekvenserna. Under den långvariga torka som nu råder mängden sediment som fördelats över våtmarkerna i Selengaflodens delta ha minskat. Sediment beräknas dock fortfarande kunna transporteras till och deponeras inom flodbankar och vattenkroppar i Selengadeltats backwaterområden. Detta kan bidra till stabilisering av bankar och skyddsvallar, stödja våtmarkers utveckling och främja nettosedimentering.Wielkość, czas trwania oraz intensywność opadów atmosferycznych oddziałuje na charakter odpływu, erozję oraz transport osadów rzecznych. Również ingerencja człowieka w środowisko – np. budowa zapór i zbiorników wodnych, czy górnictwo odkrywkowe – w różnym stopniu może wpływać na transport osadów oraz powiązanych z nimi zanieczyszczeń. Wiele dorzeczy na Ziemi, będących pod wpływem obecnych zmian klimatycznych, jest jednocześnie poddawanych narastającej antropopresji. W celu przewidywania przyszłych zmian w transporcie osadów i powiązanych z nimi zanieczyszczeń, potrzeba dogłębnego zrozumienia i oceny wpływu poszczególnych czynników powodujących te zmiany. Taka analiza jest jednak często utrudniona ze względu na złożone interakcje pomiędzy czynnikami powodującymi zmiany. Niniejsza rozprawa doktorska przedstawia wyniki badań związanych z analizą transportu osadów rzecznych w zlewni jeziora Bajkał, zdominowanej hydrologicznie transgraniczną rzeką Selengą, przepływającą przez tereny Rosji i Mongolii. Zlewnia rzeki Selengi podlega współczesnym zmianom klimatycznym oraz wzrastającej presji związanej z górnictwem. Złożoność procesów hydrologicznych jest jednak w tym wypadku ograniczona, ponieważ zlewnia Selengi jest jednym z nielicznych, względnie dużych dorzeczy na świecie, którego przepływy są – jak dotychczas – naturalne, nieuregulowane przez żadne zapory lub zbiorniki wodne. Dla poszczególnych celów: (i) identyfikacji historycznych trendów hydroklimatycznych i ich przyczyn, (ii) analizy przestrzennych zmian w transporcie osadów rzecznych w części zlewni dotkniętej górnictwem odkrywkowym oraz (iii) badania procesów transportu i magazynowania osadów w korycie i delcie rzeki; zostały w pracy zastosowane hydrometryczne dane pomiarowe, dane pochodzące z badań terenowych oraz metody modelowania. Wyniki badań wskazują na to, że w latach 1938-2009 zmalały roczne przepływy maksymalne oraz liczba wezbrań, podczas gdy w tym samym czasie wzrosły roczne przepływy minimalne. Powyższe zmiany są zgodne z oczekiwanym wpływem rozmarzania wiecznej zmarzliny na ustrój przepływów rzecznych. Analiza danych pomiarowych oraz wyników modelowania wskazują na to, że obecne zmiany dotyczące liczby oraz wielkości wezbrań mogą znacznie wpłynąć na transport osadów dennych w korytach rzek. Dodatkowo, w ciągu ostatnich 20 lat (1995-2014), średnie roczne przepływy znacznie spadły ze względu na przedłużający się okres suszy na terenie zlewni. Analiza danych terenowych pochodzących z obszarów górniczych wykazała, że podczas obniżonych przepływów, w zanieczyszczonych znaczną ilością metali osadach rzecznych, dominuje materiał pochodzący z działalności człowieka (około 80\% transportowanych osadów). Należy zatem przewidywać, że jeśli obecne zmiany w ustroju przepływów w dorzeczu Selengi (lub w innych podobnych dorzeczach na świecie) będą postępować, to ich następstwem może być dalszy wzrost koncentracji zanieczyszczeń (metali pochodzących z obszarów górniczych) rzek. Ponadto, w obecnym okresie obniżonych przepływów, na terenach zalewowych i jeziorach delty rzeki Selengi zatrzymuje się prawdopodobnie mniej osadów. Wyniki badań wskazują jednak na to, że osady rzeczne mogą być wciąż transportowane do brzegów i obszarów wodnych znajdujących się w strefie, w której stany wodne cieków delty są pod wpływem stanów wodnych jeziora Bajkału. Akumulacja materiału w tych częściach delty Selengi może pozytywnie wpływać na stabilizację naturalnych wałów oraz mokradeł i zwiększać sedymentację netto.At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript.</p

BIOGEOCHEMICAL SPECIALIZATION OF MACROPHY TESAND THEIR ROLE AS A BIOFILTER IN THE SELENGA DELTA

This study aims to evaluate the biofiltration ability of higher aquatic vegetation of the Selenga delta as a barrier for heavy metals and metalloids (HMM) flows into the Lake Baikal. Main aquatic vegetation species have been collected from deltaic channels and inner lakes: Nuphar pumila, Potamogeton perfoliatus, P. pectinatus, P. natans, P. friesii, Butomus umbellatus, Myriophyllum spicatum, Ceratophyllum demersum, Phragmites australis . Analysis of the obtained data showed that regardless of the place of growth hydatophytes spiked water-milfoil ( M. spicatum ) and the fennel-leaved pondweed ( P. pectinatus ) most actively accumulate metals. Opposite tendencies were found for helophytes reed (Ph. australis) and flowering rush ( B. umbellatus ), which concentrate the least amount of elements. This supports previous findings that the ability to concentrate HMM increases in the series of sur face - floating - submerged plants. Regarding river water, the studied macrophyte species are enriched with Mn and Co, regarding suspended matter - Mo, Mn and B, regarding bottom sediments - Mn, Mo and As. We identified two associations of chemical elements: S-association with the predominant suspended form of migration (Be, V, Co, Ni, W, Pb, Bi, Mn, Fe and Al) and D-association with the predominant dissolved form of migration (B, U, Mo, Cr, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sn and Sb). Due to these associations three groups of macrophytes were distinguished - flowering rush and reed with a low HMM content; small yellow pond-lily and common floating pondweed with a moderate accumulation of S-association and weak accumulation of D-association elements; and clasping-leaved pondweed, fennel-leaved pondweed, and pondweed Friesii accumulating elements of both S and D groups. The results suggest that macrophytes retain more than 60% of the total Mn flux that came into the delta, more than 10% - W, As, and from 3 to 10% B, Fe, Co, Mo, Cd, V, Ni, Bi, Be, Cu, Zn, Cr, U, Al. The largest contribution is made by the group of hydatophytes (spiked water-milfoil and pondweed), which account for 74 to 96% of the total mass of substances accumulated by aquatic plants