Aid Volatility and Poverty Traps

This paper studies the impact of aid volatility in a two-period model where production may occur with either a traditional or a modern technology. Public spending is productive and "time to build" requires expenditure in both periods for the modern technology to be used. The possibility of a poverty trap induced by high aid volatility is first examined in a benchmark case where taxation is absent. The analysis is then extended to account for self insurance (taking the form of a first-period contingency fund) financed through taxation. An increase in aid volatility is shown to raise the optimal contingency fund. But if future aid also depends on the size of the contingency fund (as a result of a moral hazard effect on donors' behavior), the optimal policy may entail no self insurance.

Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies

We compare three approaches to linking macro models with representative households and micro household income data in terms of their implications for measuring the poverty and distributional effects of poverty reduction strategies. These approaches are a simple micro- accounting method, an extension of that method to account for changes in employment structure, and the Beta distribution approach. Even though in our simulation exercises the three methods do not lead to fundamentally different results in absolute terms, we show that potential differences in the measurement of distributional and poverty effects of policy shocks can be very large.Applied General Equilibrium Models, Poverty, Income Distribution, Policy Evaluation

Loan loss provisioning rules, procyclicality and financial volatility

Interactions between loan-loss provisioning regimes and business cycle fluctuations are studied in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with credit market imperfections. With a specific provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments. With a dynamic system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments with a parameterized version of the model show that a dynamic provisioning regime can be highly effective in mitigating procyclicality of the financial system. The results also indicate that the combination of a credit gap-augmented Taylor rule and a dynamic provisioning system with full smoothing may be the most effective way to mitigate real and financial volatility associated with financial shocks

Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of a middle-income, small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to an endogenous premium. A sudden flood in capital flows generates an expansion in credit and activity, and asset price pressures. Countercyclical regulation, in the form of a Basel III-type rule based on real credit gaps, is effective at promoting macroeconomic stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a weighted average of inflation and the output gap) and financial stability (defined in terms of the volatility of a composite index of the nominal exchange rate and house prices). However, because the gain in terms of reduced volatility may exhibit diminishing returns, a countercyclical regulatory rule may need to be supplemented by other, more targeted, macroprudential instruments.

Does Globalization Hurt the Poor

Abstract This paper is an attempt to examine analytically and empirically the extent to which globalization affects the poor in low-and middle-income countries. I begin with a description of various channels through which trade openness and financial integration may have an adverse effect on poverty. However, I also stress the possible nonlinearities involved--possibilities that have been seldom recognized in the ongoing debate. I then present cross-country regressions that relate measures of real and financial integration to poverty. The regressions control for changes in income per capita and output growth rates, as well as various other macroeconomic and structural variables, such as the inflation tax, changes in the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, health and schooling indicators, and macroeconomic volatility. I use not only individual indicators of trade and financial openness but also a "globalization index" based on principal components analysis, and test for both linear and nonlinear effects. The results suggest the existence of a non-monotonic, Laffer-type relationship between globalization and poverty. At low levels, globalization appears to hurt the poor; but beyond a certain threshold, it seems to reduce poverty--possibly because it brings with it renewed impetus for reform. Thus, globalization may hurt the poor not because it went too far, but rather because it did not go far enough

Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

This paper examines the roles of bank capital regulation and monetary policy in mitigating procyclicality and promoting macroeconomic and financial stability. The analysis is based on a dynamic stochastic model with imperfect credit markets. Macroeconomic (financial) stability is defined in terms of the volatility of nominal income (real house prices). Numerical experiments show that even if monetary policy can react strongly to inflation deviations from target, combining a credit-augmented interest rate rule and a Basel III-type countercyclical capital regulatory rule may be optimal for promoting overall economic stability. The greater the degree of interest rate smoothing, and the stronger the policymaker’s concern with macroeconomic stability, the larger is the sensitivity of the regulatory rule to credit growth gaps.

Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: an Introduction to Inflation Targeting

This paper provides an introduction to inflation targeting, with a particular emphasis on analytical issues and the recent experience of developing countries. After presenting a formal framework, it discusses basic requirements for inflation targeting and how such a regime differs from money and exchange rate targeting regimes. The operational framework of inflation targeting (including the price index to monitor, the target horizon, forecasting procedures, and the role of asset prices) is then discussed. Next, recent experiences with inflation targets are examined. The last part of the paper focuses on some current research issues in the literature, including the role of nonlinearities regarding both policy preferences and the slope of the output-inflation tradeoff.), uncertainty (about behavioral parameters and transmission lags), and the treatment of credibility in empirical models of inflation. New evidence on the convexity of the Phillips curve is also provided for six developing countries.