The oil extraction puzzle: theory and evidence

This paper considers the relationship between the extraction rates and remaining reserves of a non-renewable resource. Under general conditions the derived extraction rule is firstly linear, and secondly exhibits a slope term common to all extractors regardless of pricing behaviour and costs whilst differences are captured by the intercept. Data from the world oil industry supports the hypothesis of linearity but the implied test was rejected in some cases. Latterly, it appears that either OPEC members are discounting at a higher rate than the competitive fringe or they are overstating their reserve levels.oil, OPEC, extraction, reserves, resources

The Oil Extraction Puzzle: Theory and Evidence

This paper considers the relationship between the extraction rates and remaining reserves of a non-renewable resource. Linear extraction rules are derived wherein the slope term is the same regardless of the cost parameters and market structure whilst differences are captured by the intercept. Using data from the world oil industry the implied test could not be rejected for the case of 1981 but failed using the 1991 and 2000 data. Latterly, either OPEC members are apparently extracting too slowly or non-OPEC countries are extracting too quickly. Three alternative resolutions of this puzzle are offered.oil extraction, OPEC, non-renewable resource

Openness, imported commodities and the Phillips Curve

This paper derives a Phillips curve with imported commodities as an additional input in the production process. Given greater reliance on exogenously priced imported commodities in production then changes in output lead to a reduced impact on marginal costs and prices. The Phillips curve becomes flatter relative to the bench-mark New Keynesian case. Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that greater imported commodity intensity in production increases the sacrifice ratio. Econometrically controlling for imported commodity intensity also doubles the explanatory power of openness in determining the sacrifice ratio, as conjectured by Romer (1993).openness, imported commodities, sacrifice ratio

Party Activists, Campaign Funding and the Quality of Government

We study the formation of government policy in democracies when turnout depends on party activists and campaign spending ‐ parties’ ‘political capital’. The functional importance of political capital determines equilibrium rent-seeking in government. Often the more potent political capital is the greater the extent of rent-seeking. Limiting the level of political capital is distinct from reducing its potency, and whereas we find a strong case for reducing potency we find that placing limits on campaign spending are rarely optimal, and in particular that weak limits are never optimal. A limit on total campaign spending can increase government quality under certain conditions and if so then strong limits are always better than weak limits. However, finite limits on either national or local campaign spending alone, as often seen in practice, are never optimal.Party activists, campaign funding, rent-seeking, political finance

The Production Function for Votes

The Vote Production Function (VPF) has a party's vote depending on (a) its potential vote and (b) the party organization which actualizes it - 'political capital'. Empirical work suggests that moving to the centre would increase your vote if only you could hold political capital constant. The relative weights of the factors in the VPF will determine whether parties converge or polarize ideologically and politicians' rent-seeking behaviour. In most cases, the more important political capital is, the greater the extent of rent seeking. There is thus a welfare case for sidelining party organizations. Compulsory voting might help.voting, ideological equilibria, rent-seeking

Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?

This paper investigates the impact of luck, defined as global economic growth, and competence, defined as the difference between domestic and world growth, on voting in general elections since 1960. The vote of incumbent parties of the right is found to be sensitive to luck, whereas that of incumbent parties of the left is not. This is consistent with the Clientele Hypothesis given electorates which fail to perfectly distinguish luck from competence. Economic competence plays a strong role in determining the vote, especially in high-income democracies. The electoral reward to competence is essentially equal across parties of either ideology, contra to the Saliency Hypothesis. The data are also supportive of the Territory Hypothesis, namely that greater ideological territory increases a party's relative vote share.voting, ideology, luck, competence

Ideology and the Growth of Government

We analyze the impact of ideology on the size of government. In a simple model the government sets redistribution and provision of public services according to the preferences of the median voter, for whom private consumption is a necessity. Ideology is defined on preferences for public services and the impact of ideology upon the size of government increases with mean income. In empirical work ideology is measured using data based on party manifestos. Much of the increases and divergence in government size observed across OECD countries can be explained by the interaction of ideology and mean income.ideology, Wagner's law, size of government

Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle

Voters respond differently to trend growth as opposed to economic cycles in GDP. When assessing incumbent competence the rational voter filters out economic cycles when they are the product of external shocks but rewards strong trend growth over the previous term of office. Voters also respond to policy platforms, and parties closest to the median voter have an advantage à la Downs (1957). This advantage is theorized to be heightened in times of recession. Using data from elections in OECD countries and a much more exacting econometric specification than used in previous analyses we find robust evidence of a positive vote response to strong performance in trend growth. We also find evidence to support the hypothesis that centralizing garners additional votes during recession.economic voting, competence, median voter, voter rationality

New ontologies

Chapter to be included in a forthcoming book: ‘New Ontologies,’ in A. Pickering and K. Guzik (eds), 'The Mangle in Practice: Science, Society and Becoming', Durham, NC: Duke University Press, forthcoming.In The Mangle of Practice (1995) I argued for a specific ontological vision of the world and of our place in it, a vision in which both the human and the nonhuman are recognised as open-endedly becoming—taking on emergent forms in an intrinsically temporal ‘dance of agency.’ Here I seek to enrich and extend that vision, beginning from some different places. I first discuss the paintings of Piet Mondrian and Willem de Kooning as exemplars or icons of, respectively, a Modern dualist ontology and a non-Modern mangle-ish ontology. Echoing Martin Heidegger, I argue that the Mondrianesque stance (1) is associated with projects of domination and (2) veils our true, de Kooning-like, ontological condition from us. My second example concerns the struggles of the US Army Corps of Engineers with the Mississippi River. Again, these exemplify a project of domination and control, now including scientific knowledge, that is both embedded in and conceals the flow of becoming. In the second half of the essay, I ask whether it would make a difference if we adopted a stance of self-consciously acting out an ontology of becoming. I argue that it would, drawing upon examples from the arts, religion and philosophy, but seeking to draw attention especially, and contra Heidegger, to branches of science and engineering that themselves assume an ontology of becoming. I conclude with a brief discussion of a ‘politics of experiment’ that would go with an ontology of becoming

Living in the Material World

My topic is materiality and how ideas on materiality from my field—STS, science and technology studies—might cross over into management and organisation studies. ‘Sociomateriality’ (Orlikowski and Scott 2008) is already an important topic in management and organisations, but I will try to widen the frame. We can start with technologies of the self, then turn to industry and technoscience, and finally explore an odd form of management which builds in the perspective I want to develop. The overall idea is to multiply our sense of the many different ways in which matter is interwined with us