A Pilot Study of Value of Information Analysis to Support Research Recommendations for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence

Background - This project developed as a result of the activities of the Research Teams at the Centre for Health Economics, University of York, and ScHARR at the University of Sheffield in the methods and application of decision analysis and value of information analysis as a means of informing the research recommendations made by NICE, as part of its Guidance to the NHS in England and Wales, and informing the deliberations of the NICE Research and Development Committee. Objectives - The specific objectives of the pilot study were to: • Demonstrate the benefits of using appropriate decision analytic methods and value of information analysis to inform research recommendations. • Establish the feasibility and resource implications of applying these methods in a timely way, to inform NICE. • Identify critical issues and methodological challenges to the use of value of information methods for research recommendations (with particular regard to the new reference case as a suitable basis for this type of analysis).

Air Launch: Examining Performance Potential of Various Configurations and Growth Options

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center conducted a high-level analysis of various air launch vehicle configurations, objectively determining maximum launch vehicle payload while considering carrier aircraft capabilities and given dimensional constraints. With the renewed interest in aerial launch of low-earth orbit payloads, referenced by programs such as Stratolaunch and Spaceship2, there exists a need to qualify the boundaries of the trade space, identify performance envelopes, and understand advantages and limiting factors of designing for maximum payload capability. Using the NASA/DARPA Horizontal Launch Study (HLS) Point Design 2 (PD-2) as a pointof- departure configuration, two independent design actions were undertaken. Both designs utilized a Boeing 747-400F as the carrier aircraft, LOX/RP-1 first stage and LOX/LH2 second stage. Each design was sized to meet dimensional and mass constraints while optimizing propellant loads and stage delta V splits. All concepts, when fully loaded, exceeded the allowable Gross Takeoff Weight (GTOW) of the aircraft platform. This excess mass was evaluated as propellant/fuel offload available for a potential in-flight propellant loading scenario. Results indicate many advantages such as payload delivery of approximately 47,000 lbm and significant mission flexibility including variable launch site inclination and launch window. However, in-flight cryogenic fluid transfer and carrier aircraft platform integration are substantial technical hurdles to the realization of such a system configuration

Supporting Material for APLs Interstellar Probe Final Report

No abstract availabl

Heavy Lift Launch Capability with a New Hydrocarbon Engine

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center was tasked to define the thrust requirement of a new liquid oxygen rich staged combustion cycle hydrocarbon engine that could be utilized in a launch vehicle to meet NASA s future heavy lift needs. Launch vehicle concepts were sized using this engine for different heavy lift payload classes. Engine out capabilities for one of the heavy lift configurations were also analyzed for increased reliability that may be desired for high value payloads or crewed missions. The applicability for this engine in vehicle concepts to meet military and commercial class payloads comparable to current ELV capability was also evaluated

Launch Vehicle Demonstrator Using Shuttle Assets

The Marshall Space Flight Center Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) has the leading role for NASA s preliminary conceptual launch vehicle design and performance analysis. Over the past several years the ACO Earth-to-Orbit Team has evaluated thousands of launch vehicle concept variations for a multitude of studies including agency-wide efforts such as the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), Constellation, Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV), Heavy Lift Propulsion Technology (HLPT), Human Exploration Framework Team (HEFT), and Space Launch System (SLS). NASA plans to continue human space exploration and space station utilization. Launch vehicles used for heavy lift cargo and crew will be needed. One of the current leading concepts for future heavy lift capability is an inline one and a half stage concept using solid rocket boosters (SRB) and based on current Shuttle technology and elements. Potentially, the quickest and most cost-effective path towards an operational vehicle of this configuration is to make use of a demonstrator vehicle fabricated from existing shuttle assets and relying upon the existing STS launch infrastructure. Such a demonstrator would yield valuable proof-of-concept data and would provide a working test platform allowing for validated systems integration. Using shuttle hardware such as existing RS-25D engines and partial MPS, propellant tanks derived from the External Tank (ET) design and tooling, and four-segment SRB s could reduce the associated upfront development costs and schedule when compared to a concept that would rely on new propulsion technology and engine designs. There are potentially several other additional benefits to this demonstrator concept. Since a concept of this type would be based on man-rated flight proven hardware components, this demonstrator has the potential to evolve into the first iteration of heavy lift crew or cargo and serve as a baseline for block upgrades. This vehicle could also serve as a demonstration and test platform for the Orion Program. Critical spacecraft systems, re-entry and recovery systems, and launch abort systems of Orion could also be demonstrated in early test flights of the launch vehicle demo. Furthermore, an early demonstrator of this type would provide a stop-gap for retaining critical human capital and infrastructure while affording the current emerging generation of young engineers opportunity to work with and capture lessons learned from existing STS program offices and personnel, who were integral in the design and development of the Space Shuttle before these resources are no longer available. The objective of this study is to define candidate launch vehicle demonstration concepts that are based on Space Shuttle assets and determine their performance capabilities and how these demonstration vehicles could evolve to a heavy lift capability to low earth orbit

Target: Wellbeing Evaluation - Annual Report (2010)

Target: Wellbeing (TWB) aims to help people across the North West live healthier and happier lives. TWB is delivered through a portfolio of community based programmes and projects, and has been funded by the National Lottery for the period October 2007 to March 2012 through the Big Lottery Fund, with funding linked to health outcomes. This evaluation update of the TWB portfolio provides reach analysis and evidence of behaviour change from the ten local programmes between January 2009 and August 2010, and provides an update to last year’s Target: Wellbeing Evaluation – Annual Report February 2010. The analysis relates to the area based community projects within the TWB portfolio and covers the TWB participants and their evidence of behaviour change. Reach analysis is produced via the registration database with behaviour change evidence from analysis of welcome and exit questionnaires. Forty-four projects have contributed responses to this evaluation, about half of the total number, and sixty-six have used the participant database, contributing to the reach analysis

Small Launch Vehicle Concept Development for Affordable Multi-Stage Inline Configurations

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center conducted a study of two configurations of a three-stage, inline, liquid propellant small launch vehicle concept developed on the premise of maximizing affordability by targeting a specific payload capability range based on current and future industry demand. The initial configuration, NESC-1, employed liquid oxygen as the oxidizer and rocket propellant grade kerosene as the fuel in all three stages. The second and more heavily studied configuration, NESC-4, employed liquid oxygen and rocket propellant grade kerosene on the first and second stages and liquid oxygen and liquid methane fuel on the third stage. On both vehicles, sensitivity studies were first conducted on specific impulse and stage propellant mass fraction in order to baseline gear ratios and drive the focus of concept development. Subsequent sensitivity and trade studies on the NESC-4 concept investigated potential impacts to affordability due to changes in gross liftoff mass and/or vehicle complexity. Results are discussed at a high level to understand the impact severity of certain sensitivities and how those trade studies conducted can either affect cost, performance, or both

Modular Approach to Launch Vehicle Design Based on a Common Core Element

With a heavy lift launch vehicle as the centerpiece of our nation's next exploration architecture's infrastructure, the Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center initiated a study to examine the utilization of elements derived from a heavy lift launch vehicle for other potential launch vehicle applications. The premise of this study is to take a vehicle concept, which has been optimized for Lunar Exploration, and utilize the core stage with other existing or near existing stages and boosters to determine lift capabilities for alternative missions. This approach not only yields a vehicle matrix with a wide array of capabilities, but also produces an evolutionary pathway to a vehicle family based on a minimum development and production cost approach to a launch vehicle system architecture, instead of a purely performance driven approach. The upper stages and solid rocket booster selected for this study were chosen to reflect a cross-section of: modified existing assets in the form of a modified Delta IV upper stage and Castor-type boosters; potential near term launch vehicle component designs including an Ares I upper stage and 5-segment boosters; and longer lead vehicle components such as a Shuttle External Tank diameter upper stage. The results of this approach to a modular launch system are given in this paper

Small Launch Vehicle Design Approaches: Clustered Cores Compared with Multi-Stage Inline Concepts

In an effort to better define small launch vehicle design options two approaches were investigated from the small launch vehicle trade space. The primary focus was to evaluate a clustered common core design against a purpose built inline vehicle. Both designs focused on liquid oxygen (LOX) and rocket propellant grade kerosene (RP-1) stages with the terminal stage later evaluated as a LOX/methane (CH4) stage. A series of performance optimization runs were done in order to minimize gross liftoff weight (GLOW) including alternative thrust levels, delivery altitude for payload, vehicle length to diameter ratio, alternative engine feed systems, re-evaluation of mass growth allowances, passive versus active guidance systems, and rail and tower launch methods. Additionally manufacturability, cost, and operations also play a large role in the benefits and detriments for each design. Presented here is the Advanced Concepts Office's Earth to Orbit Launch Team methodology and high level discussion of the performance trades and trends of both small launch vehicle solutions along with design philosophies that shaped both concepts. Without putting forth a decree stating one approach is better than the other; this discussion is meant to educate the community at large and let the reader determine which architecture is truly the most economical; since each path has such a unique set of limitations and potential payoffs

NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-To-Orbit Team Design Process and Tools

The Earth to Orbit (ETO) Team of the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshal Space Flight Center (MSFC) is considered the preeminent group to go to for prephase A and phase A concept definition. The ACO team has been at the forefront of a multitude of launch vehicle studies determining the future direction of the Agency as a whole due, in part, to their rapid turnaround time in analyzing concepts and their ability to cover broad trade spaces of vehicles in that limited timeframe. Each completed vehicle concept includes a full mass breakdown of each vehicle to tertiary subsystem components, along with a vehicle trajectory analysis to determine optimized payload delivery to specified orbital parameters, flight environments, and delta v capability. Additionally, a structural analysis of the vehicle based on material properties and geometries is performed as well as an analysis to determine the flight loads based on the trajectory outputs. As mentioned, the ACO Earth to Orbit Team prides themselves on their rapid turnaround time and often need to fulfill customer requests within limited schedule or little advanced notice. Due to working in this fast paced environment, the ETO team has developed some finely honed skills and methods to maximize the delivery capability to meet their customer needs. This paper will describe the interfaces between the 3 primary disciplines used in the design process; weights and sizing, trajectory, and structural analysis, as well as the approach each discipline employs to streamline their particular piece of the design process