Jumping to the wrong conclusions? An investigation of the mechanisms of reasoning errors in delusions

Understanding how people with delusions arrive at false conclusions is central to the refinement of cognitive behavioural interventions. Making hasty decisions based on limited data ('jumping to conclusions', JTC) is one potential causal mechanism, but reasoning errors may also result from other processes. In this study, we investigated the correlates of reasoning errors under differing task conditions in 204 participants with schizophrenia spectrum psychosis who completed three probabilistic reasoning tasks. Psychotic symptoms, affect, and IQ were also evaluated. We found that hasty decision makers were more likely to draw false conclusions, but only 37% of their reasoning errors were consistent with the limited data they had gathered. The remainder directly contradicted all the presented evidence. Reasoning errors showed task-dependent associations with IQ affect, and psychotic symptoms. We conclude that limited data-gathering contributes to false conclusions but is not the only mechanism involved. Delusions may also be maintained by a tendency to disregard evidence. Low IQ and emotional biases may contribute to reasoning errors in more complex situations. Cognitive strategies to reduce reasoning errors should therefore extend beyond encouragement to gather more data, and incorporate interventions focused directly on these difficulties

Thinking Well: a randomised controlled feasibility study of a new CBT therapy targeting reasoning biases in people with distressing persecutory delusional beliefs

Background and objectives Delusional beliefs with persecutory content are common in psychosis, but difficult to treat. Interventions targeting hypothesised causal and maintaining factors have been proposed as a way of improving therapy. The current study is a feasibility randomised controlled trial of the ‘Thinking Well (TW)’ intervention: This novel approach combines the recently developed Maudsley Review Training Programme (MRTP), with additional, focussed cognitive-behavioural therapy sessions. Methods 31 participants with distressing persecutory delusions and schizophrenia spectrum disorders were randomised to TW or to treatment as usual in a 2:1 ratio. Participants completed outcome assessments at 0 (baseline), 1 (post-MRTP), 6 (post-TW) and 8 (follow-up) weeks. Key outcomes included belief flexibility, paranoia, and delusional conviction and distress. Participants allocated to TW completed the MRTP package and four CBT sessions with a clinical psychologist. Results Recruitment proved feasible. Participants reported the intervention was relevant and had resulted in positive changes in thinking and mood, which they could use in everyday life. Treatment effects were moderate-large for key outcomes including belief flexibility, paranoia conviction and distress. The additional TW sessions appeared to confer benefits over MRTP alone. Limitations Assessments were not carried out blind to treatment condition. Recruitment was opportunistic, from an identified pool of research participants. Finally, a few participants had already completed the MRTP as part of a previous study. Conclusions The TW intervention appears to be feasible and acceptable to participants, and the effects of treatment are promising. A fully powered randomised controlled trial of the intervention is warranted

Jumping to Conclusions, a Lack of Belief Flexibility and Delusional Conviction in Psychosis: A Longitudinal Investigation of the Structure, Frequency, and Relatedness of Reasoning Biases

Two reasoning biases, jumping to conclusions (JTC) and belief inflexibility, have been found to be associated with delusions. We examined these biases and their relationship with delusional conviction in a longitudinal cohort of people with schizophrenia-spectrum psychosis. We hypothesized that JTC, lack of belief flexibility, and delusional conviction would form distinct factors, and that JTC and lack of belief flexibility would predict less change in delusional conviction over time. Two hundred seventy-three patients with delusions were assessed over twelve months of a treatment trial (Garety et al., 2008). Forty-one percent of the sample had 100% conviction in their delusions, 50% showed a JTC bias, and 50%–75% showed a lack of belief flexibility. Delusional conviction, JTC, and belief flexibility formed distinct factors although conviction was negatively correlated with belief flexibility. Conviction declined slightly over the year in this established psychosis group, whereas the reasoning biases were stable. There was little evidence that reasoning predicted the slight decline in conviction. The degree to which people believe their delusions, their ability to think that they may be mistaken and to consider alternative explanations, and their hastiness in decision making are three distinct processes although belief flexibility and conviction are related. In this established psychosis sample, reasoning biases changed little in response to medication or psychological therapy. Required now is examination of these processes in psychosis groups where there is greater change in delusion conviction, as well as tests of the effects on delusions when these reasoning biases are specifically targeted

Psychological mechanisms mediating effects between trauma and psychotic symptoms: the role of affect regulation, intrusive trauma memory, beliefs, and depression

Evidence suggests a causal role for trauma in psychosis, particularly for childhood victimization. However, the establishment of underlying trauma-related mechanisms would strengthen the causal argument. In a sample of peo-ple with relapsing psychosis (n = 228), we tested hypoth-esized mechanisms specifically related to impaired affect regulation, intrusive trauma memory, beliefs, and depres-sion. The majority of participants (74.1%) reported vic-timization trauma, and a fifth (21.5%) met symptomatic criteria for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder. We found a specific link between childhood sexual abuse and auditory hallucinations (adjusted OR = 2.21, SE = 0.74, P = .018). This relationship was mediated by posttraumatic avoid-ance and numbing (OR = 1.48, SE = 0.19, P = .038) and hyperarousal (OR = 1.44, SE = 0.18, P = .045), but not intrusive trauma memory, negative beliefs or depression. In contrast, childhood emotional abuse was specifically associated with delusions, both persecutory (adjusted OR = 2.21, SE = 0.68, P = .009) and referential (adjusted OR = 2.43, SE = 0.74, P = .004). The link with persecutory delusions was mediated by negative-other beliefs (OR = 1.36, SE = 0.14, P = .024), but not posttraumatic stress symptoms, negative-self beliefs, or depression. There was no evidence of mediation for referential delusions. No rela-tionships were identified between childhood physical abuse and psychosis. The findings underline the role of cognitive-affective processes in the relationship between trauma and symptoms, and the importance of assessing and treating victimization and its psychological consequences in people with psychosis

The U&I study: study protocol for a feasibility randomised controlled trial of a pre-cognitive behavioural therapy digital ‘informed choice’ intervention to improve attitudes towards uptake and implementation of CBT for psychosis

Background: At least 40% of people with psychosis have persistent distressing symptoms despite optimal medication treatment. Cognitive Behaviour Therapy for psychosis (CBTp) is the only NICE recommended individual therapy for psychosis, with effects on symptoms, distress and quality of life. Yet fewer than 20% of service-users receive it and 94% of trusts struggle to provide it. Of those offered it, 22-43% refuse or do not attend. We have developed a new pre-CBTp informed choice intervention to address knowledge and attitudes that influence uptake and implementation and now want to test it in a feasibility trial. Methods: The design is a 2-arm, feasibility RCT, with 1:1 randomisation, stratified by participant group and site. Participants are 40 psychosis patients and 40 clinicians, who are ambivalent towards uptake or implementation of CBTp. Sites are community and inpatient services in Sussex and London. The intervention is a pre-CBT digital psychoeducation intervention designed to address identified knowledge and attitudinal barriers to uptake and implementation of CBTp, incorporating behaviour change mechanisms, and supported by animated introductory, patient and clinician stories. The comparator is the NHS choices website for CBT. The primary aim is to assess clinical feasibility (recruitment, randomization, acceptability, use, delivery, outcome measurement, retention). A secondary aim is a preliminary evaluation of efficacy. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline, post-intervention, and one-month follow up (blind to treatment arm). The primary efficacy outcome is likelihood of offering/taking up CBTp. Secondary outcomes include knowledge and attitudes towards CBTp; illness perceptions; empowerment; psychological wellbeing (patients only); CBTp implementation (clinicians only). Use of the intervention and CBT behaviours during the follow-up period will be recorded, and captured in a feedback questionnaire. Use, acceptability and experience of outcome assessment will be explored in qualitative interviews with participants (n = 6 per group). The efficacy evaluation will report descriptive data, key model parameters and 95% Highest Probability Density intervals in a Bayesian growth model. Discussion: This is the first feasibility trial of a digital ‘informed choice’ decision aid for the implementation of CBTp. If the trial proves feasible and demonstrates preliminary evidence of efficacy, a large multi-site trial will be warranted

Improving implementation of evidence based practice for people with psychosis through training the wider workforce: results of the GOALS feasibility randomised controlled trial

Background and objectives There is a pressing need to improve access to evidence-based practice for people with psychosis. The primary aim of this study was to assess clinical feasibility of a manualised, evidence-based CBT intervention (GOALS) targeting a personalised recovery goal, delivered by the frontline workforce, following brief training. Secondly, we aimed to conduct preliminary statistical analyses of key outcomes and costs. Methods The GOALS study is a feasibility randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN 73188383). 75 participants with current psychosis were recruited and randomly allocated to receive either treatment as usual alone or with GOALS therapy. Results Brief training enabled frontline staff to deliver the therapy according to protocol and 74% of therapy participants partially or fully achieved their goals. There were significant improvements with a moderate effect size of 0.56 on goal attainment. However, preliminary statistical analyses found no significant differences between groups on our primary outcome of activity levels or other secondary outcomes Health economic analysis found that point estimates of costs, controlling for baseline costs, implied savings (even including intervention costs), but the difference was not statistically significant. Limitations The study was designed as a feasibility RCT, and therefore the results of secondary estimates of efficacy effects should be treated with caution. Conclusions This approach holds promise in supporting people with psychosis to reach personal recovery goals, cost effectively

Neuropsychological functioning and jumping to conclusions in delusions

Background: It has been consistently demonstrated that delusions are related to jumping to conclusions (JTC), a data-gathering bias and potential candidate endophenotype of psychosis. Recent research suggests that JTC may be a marker of treatment response. However, we know little about the factors contributing to the occurrence of this reasoning bias. This study investigated the relationship between JTC and hypothesised deficits in working memory, employing standard well-validated neuropsychological tests, in people with current delusions. Method: One hundred and twenty six people with schizophrenia spectrum psychosis and current delusions were assessed for current symptoms, and tested for JTC. We compared performance on tests of working memory in those with the reasoning bias and those without. Results: As expected, 30–40% of this sample of people with current delusions showed the JTC bias. There were no differences in premorbid IQ between those with and without the JTC reasoning bias. However, the performance of the JTC group was significantly worse on tests of working memory. Conclusions: The JTC data-gathering bias is associated with impairments in working memory. New non-pharmacological interventions for people with delusions, designed to improve data gathering, may benefit from incorporating strategies to overcome deficits in working memory