Rising Dispersion in Age at First Birth in Europe: Is it Related to Fertility Postponement?

This paper examines the dispersion of fertility across age and time which has rarely been studied. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we examine fertility age schedules by looking at standard deviations in age at first births in European countries at different stages of fertility postponement. The standard deviation at first birth remained overall constant during the start of fertility postponement in the early 1970s, then it increased during the second stage marking the progression of postponement. It remained again constant at a higher level during recent years. The paper discusses the structural changes that might have caused these changes

Multiregional Demographic Analyses for some Socialist Countries in Eastern Europe

Socioeconomic changes in the Eastern European socialist countries have considerably altered demographic patterns. In order to analyze these changes, a comparative study of fertility, mortality, and migration, at the regional level has been carried out. The method used is that of multiregional demography. It is shown that while the mortality patterns are more or less uniform in the regions of the five countries under consideration, the fertility and mortality patterns are more diverse, although they still correspond to the degree of the regional socioeconomic development

Multiregional Methods for Subnational Population Projections

Most projections of urban and rural populations are generated by models that are fundamentally nonspatial and uniregional in character. Migration streams are treated as net flows, and urban and rural populations are projected independently of each other. This paper argues for a multiregional spatial perspective that incorporates directional gross migration flows. Differences between the two approaches are identified and problems of bias and inconsistency are discussed

Multistate Population Projections

This paper develops a procedure for carrying out multiregional population projections disaggregated by region of birth. Two classes of projections are developed: "native-independent" projections that assign to all residents of a region identical probabilities of transition and "native-dependent" projections that further disaggregate such probabilities by region of birth. The results underscore the importance of incorporating place-of-birth-specific information in demographic analysis

Differences by union status in health and mortality at older ages: Results for 16 European countries

Background: Married people live longer than the unmarried; micro-level research indicates that they enjoy better health. Macro-level research does not combine mortality, marital status, and health. Objective: We provide international comparisons of healthy and unhealthy life years at ages 50 and higher combining mortality, marital status, and health. Methods: We examine differences in healthy and unhealthy life years for married and cohabiting (i.e., partnered) and for single men and women and break these down into mortality and disability. EU-SILC and Eurostat data for 2011 are used for 16 European countries. Results: Our analyses show that partnered people, both men and women, are healthier than singles. However, these differences in unhealthy life are varied. For the length of healthy life, the effect of disability dominates the effect of mortality for women strongly and for men weakly, while the effect of mortality is more important for the length of unhealthy life of women. Populations in Eastern Europe are more disadvantaged than those in Western Europe with respect to length of life and of healthy life; these differences are larger for singles and lower for the partnered. Contribution: We extend previous macro-level studies on healthy and unhealthy life at older ages by introducing the additional dimension of partner status. We provide rich information in terms of life expectancies for 16 countries in Europe, with special attention on Eastern European countries and specifically on singles in these countries

The One-Year - Five-Year Migration Problem

A general problem in the analysis of mobility is caused by the comparison of data stemming from different time-period durations. Various methods for easing this problem have been suggested. In this paper, an extension of the mover-stayer model is discussed. A method for its solution is suggested by making use of matrix transformation and eigenvalue theory. The discussion is carried out in terms of migration tables and multiregional life tables, and data for three regions of Great Britain have been used for an illustration

Migration and Settlement: 12. Bulgaria

This collection of national reports deals with the comparative analysis of internal migration and spatial population growth in the 17 National Member Organization countries of IIASA. Patterns of population change are explored by applying the new multiregional methodologies and computer programs elaborated in the Human Settlements and Services Area. All reports have the same structure and include multiregional life tables, spatial mortality, fertility, and migration expectancies, and multiregional population projections. Each Migration and Settlement report is authored by a native collaborating scholar familiar with the demographic setting of his/her country. In this report, Dimiter Philipov analyzes recent changes in Bulgaria's patterns of population redistribution and studies in detail the demographic dynamics of seven economic planning regions

Migration and Natural Increase in the Growth of Cities

Roughly 1.8 billion people, 42 percent of the world's population, live in urban areas today. At the beginning of the last century, the urban population totaled only 25 million. According to recent United Nations estimates, about 3.1 billion people, twice today's urban population, will be living in urban areas by the year 2000. Scholars and policy makers often disagree when it comes to evaluating the desirability of current rapid rates of urban growth and urbanization in many parts of the world. Some see this trend as fostering national processes of socioeconomic development, particularly in the poorer and rapidly urbanizing countries of the Third World, whereas others believe the consequences to be largely undesirable and argue that such urban growth should be slowed down. Migration and natural increase are the two contributors to urban population growth. The complex question of which of the two is more important is analyzed in this article through the use of simulation techniques. Immediate effects are contrasted with long-run effects, and the age of the migrant is considered as an important factor, along with the crucial variable of rural population growth

Proceedings of Task Force Meeting I on Regional Development Planning for the Silistra Region (Bulgaria)

Regional policy problems are universal. This means that all countries need good methods for analyzing and solving their regional problems. Models for regional policy making and planning have also been worked out in scientific institutions. It is obvious that these abstract models are often not specific enough to be used in policy making but have to be adapted to the institutional, historical and natural conditions of the specific region to be planned. It is one of the ambitions with the Silistra regional case study, reported in this volume, to test the possibility of applying regional policy models, developed in Bulgaria, at IIASA and elsewhere, to the solution of the Silistra development problems. Some of the models suggested for the Silistra case study are presented in this volume. These models should, however, not be viewed in isolation but as parts of a general systems approach. The papers by M. Albegov and A. Andersson/A. La Bella give examples of possible systems approaches to integration of regional policy models into a consistent system. This volume basically contains papers on model design. Few papers report on actual use of the models in applications for policy making. The application of these models is planned to be reported in later Task Force Proceedings, when the work has progressed into a stage of close cooperation with the decision makers and national economy planners of the Silistra region. We also have the ambition to come to a stage of generalization of the modeling experiences gained in this case study so that other countries can benefit from the experiences gained in the Silistra case study