Sanctions on South Africa: What Did They Do

This paper considers the economic sanctions that were applied in the mid-1980s to pressure the South African government to end apartheid. It asks what role those sanctions played in the eventual demise of the apartheid regime and concludes that the role was probably very small. An alternative explanation for the regime change is offered: the communist bloc combined to bring about the change. If one is to argue for the efficacy of sanctions, two key obstacles are their limited economic impact and the substantial lag between the imposition of sanctions and the political change. Since sanctions preceded the change of government, it is impossible to rule them out as a determinant. However, their principal effect was probably psychological. The implication is that the South African case should not serve as the lone major instance of effective sanctions.Keywords: Sanctions, South Africa, Political Economy, Trade

Non-Tariff Barriers as a Test of Political Economy Theories

This paper provides a rough test of a broad and prominent class of political economy of trade models and finds them wanting. The class features governments with weighted social welfare functions, including the prominent model of Grossman and Helpman. Whether the government is the single domestic player or there are other players involved (as with the lobbies in the Grossman-Helpman case) the government ultimately acts as a unitary player in international dealings. Recent work has shown that such unitary actors care exclusively about terms of trade in international negotiations. This paper pursues the implication that governments' choice of trade instruments may offer a better test of the unitary government framework than existing empirical work. We use the structure of United States protection to argue that governments consistently choose instruments that sacrifice terms of trade, thus casting doubt on the unitary approach. We offer a discussion of alternative theories of political economy that could accommodate this stylized fact.Trade policy, Lobbying, Tariffs, Political Economy

Sample levitation and melt in microgravity

A system is described for maintaining a sample material in a molten state and away from the walls of a container in a microgravity environment, as in a space vehicle. A plurality of sources of electromagnetic radiation, such as of an infrared wavelength, are spaced about the object, with the total net electromagnetic radiation applied to the object being sufficient to maintain it in a molten state, and with the vector sum of the applied radiation being in a direction to maintain the sample close to a predetermined location away from the walls of a container surrounding the sample. For a processing system in a space vehicle that orbits the Earth, the net radiation vector is opposite the velocity of the orbiting vehicle

Sample average approximation with heavier tails II: localization in stochastic convex optimization and persistence results for the Lasso

We present exponential finite-sample nonasymptotic deviation inequalities for the SAA estimator's near-optimal solution set over the class of stochastic optimization problems with heavy-tailed random \emph{convex} functions in the objective and constraints. Such setting is better suited for problems where a sub-Gaussian data generating distribution is less expected, e.g., in stochastic portfolio optimization. One of our contributions is to exploit \emph{convexity} of the perturbed objective and the perturbed constraints as a property which entails \emph{localized} deviation inequalities for joint feasibility and optimality guarantees. This means that our bounds are significantly tighter in terms of diameter and metric entropy since they depend only on the near-optimal solution set but not on the whole feasible set. As a result, we obtain a much sharper sample complexity estimate when compared to a general nonconvex problem. In our analysis, we derive some localized deterministic perturbation error bounds for convex optimization problems which are of independent interest. To obtain our results, we only assume a metric regular convex feasible set, possibly not satisfying the Slater condition and not having a metric regular solution set. In this general setting, joint near feasibility and near optimality are guaranteed. If in addition the set satisfies the Slater condition, we obtain finite-sample simultaneous \emph{exact} feasibility and near optimality guarantees (for a sufficiently small tolerance). Another contribution of our work is to present, as a proof of concept of our localized techniques, a persistent result for a variant of the LASSO estimator under very weak assumptions on the data generating distribution.Comment: 34 pages. Some correction

Earworms ("stuck song syndrome"): towards a natural history of intrusive thoughts

Two studies examine the experience of “earworms”, unwanted catchy tunes that repeat. Survey data show that the experience is widespread but earworms are not generally considered problematic, although those who consider music to be important to them report earworms as longer, and harder to control, than those who consider music as less important. The tunes which produce these experiences vary considerably between individuals but are always familiar to those who experience them. A diary study confirms these findings and also indicates that, although earworm recurrence is relatively uncommon and unlikely to persist for longer than 24 hours, the length of both the earworm and the earworm experience frequently exceed standard estimates of auditory memory capacity. Active attempts to block or eliminate the earworm are less successful than passive acceptance, consistent with Wegner’s (1994) theory of ironic mental control

Untitled: A Study of Formal and Informal Property Rights in Urban Ecuador

In this paper we explore the substitutability of formal and informal property rights. We analyze new survey data from Ecuador, where households have both formal and informal claims to urban residential property. The latter come from a variety of sources, including the activity of a local boss, or organizer. We first develop a theory of the ability to sell or rent land in which a distinction is drawn between transferable property rights (e.g., title) and non-transferable claims (e.g., length of residence). We use this theory of transactions to show that the increase in price that follows the granting of title may be an overestimate of the households' utility gain. In our empirical work we find that the unconditional effect of granting title is to raise properties' value by 23.5%. However, we also find that informal property rights can substitute effectively for formal property rights, so the marginal effect of titling on the ability to transact and on prices can vary widely among communities and among households within a community. For example, the value of property owned by a newly established household with no adult males can increase by 46% with the acquisition of title. These findings suggest that titling programs should be targeted at young disorganized communities if they are to have much effect.

International linkage of real interest rates: the case of East Asian countries

This paper examines linkage of real interest rates for a group of selected countries in East Asia. The countries under study include Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The long run relationship is tested and estimated using the conitegration analysis. We also have conducted the impulse response analysis based on unrestricted vector autoregression, using the bias-corrected wild bootstrap for statistical inference. Our results show that (1) there exists a long run equilibrium relationship, (2) there are interesting short run dynamic interactions, in which Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand play the role of equilibrating factorFinancial linkage; Real interest rate parity; Cointegration analysis; Wild bootstrap

Structured conditioning of matrix functions

Abstract. The existing theory of conditioning for matrix functions f(X): C n×n → C n×n does not cater for structure in the matrix X. An extension of this theory is presented in which when X has structure, all perturbations of X are required to have the same structure. Two classes of structured matrices are considered, those comprising the Jordan algebra J and the Lie algebra L associated with a nondegenerate bilinear or sesquilinear form on R n or C n. Examples of such classes are the symmetric, skew-symmetric, Hamiltonian and skew-Hamiltonian matrices. Structured condition numbers are defined for these two classes. Under certain conditions on the underlying scalar product, explicit representations are given for the structured condition numbers. Comparisons between the unstructured and structured condition numbers are then made. When the underlying scalar product is a sesquilinear form, it is shown that there is no difference between the values of the two condition numbers for (i) all functions of X ∈ J, and (ii) odd and even functions of X ∈ L. When the underlying scalar product is a bilinear form then equality is not guaranteed in all these cases. Where equality is not guaranteed, bounds are obtained for the ratio of the unstructured and structured condition numbers