Modeling Population Movements under Uncertainty at the Border in Humanitarian Crises: A Situational Analysis Tool

Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain situations in which predictive modeling tools can be useful but challenging to build. To better understand the need for humanitarian support -- including shelter and assistance -- and strengthen contingency planning and protection efforts for displaced populations, we present a situational analysis tool to help anticipate the number of migrants and forcibly displaced persons that will cross a border in a humanitarian crisis. The tool consists of: (i) indicators of potential intent to move drawn from traditional and big data sources; (ii) predictive models for forecasting possible future movements; and (iii) a simulation of border crossings and shelter capacity requirements under different conditions. This tool has been specifically adapted to contingency planning in settings of high uncertainty, with an application to the Brazil-Venezuela border during the COVID-19 pandemic.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Ridesharing and the Use of Public Transportation

We investigate how the digital business model of on-demand ridesharing platforms like Uber and Lyft interacts with an established, centralized public mass transit system. Our study uses data on ridesharing, taxi, shared bike, and subway usage in New York City and exploits a series of exogenous shocks to the system – the closing of subway stations – to isolate substitution effects. We find that the average shock is associated with a 2.8 - 3.3% increase in the use of ridesharing, which translates into 5.5 additional Uber rides and 1.5 additional Lyft rides per taxi zone and four-hour period. Although this suggests that on-demand ridesharing acts as infrastructure that helps smooth unexpected transportation supply and demand surges, the estimated effect is small relative to the average number of subway rides displaced. Our results indicate that the flexibility inherent in ridesharing’s crowd-based business model could be further exploited to support capital-intensive transit systems in the future

Exploring YouTube’s Recommendation System in the Context of COVID-19 Vaccines: Computational and Comparative Analysis of Video Trajectories

BackgroundThroughout the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a concern that social media may contribute to vaccine hesitancy due to the wide availability of antivaccine content on social media platforms. YouTube has stated its commitment to removing content that contains misinformation on vaccination. Nevertheless, such claims are difficult to audit. There is a need for more empirical research to evaluate the actual prevalence of antivaccine sentiment on the internet. ObjectiveThis study examines recommendations made by YouTube’s algorithms in order to investigate whether the platform may facilitate the spread of antivaccine sentiment on the internet. We assess the prevalence of antivaccine sentiment in recommended videos and evaluate how real-world users’ experiences are different from the personalized recommendations obtained by using synthetic data collection methods, which are often used to study YouTube’s recommendation systems. MethodsWe trace trajectories from a credible seed video posted by the World Health Organization to antivaccine videos, following only video links suggested by YouTube’s recommendation system. First, we gamify the process by asking real-world participants to intentionally find an antivaccine video with as few clicks as possible. Having collected crowdsourced trajectory data from respondents from (1) the World Health Organization and United Nations system (nWHO/UN=33) and (2) Amazon Mechanical Turk (nAMT=80), we next compare the recommendations seen by these users to recommended videos that are obtained from (3) the YouTube application programming interface’s RelatedToVideoID parameter (nRTV=40) and (4) from clean browsers without any identifying cookies (nCB=40), which serve as reference points. We develop machine learning methods to classify antivaccine content at scale, enabling us to automatically evaluate 27,074 video recommendations made by YouTube. ResultsWe found no evidence that YouTube promotes antivaccine content; the average share of antivaccine videos remained well below 6% at all steps in users’ recommendation trajectories. However, the watch histories of users significantly affect video recommendations, suggesting that data from the application programming interface or from a clean browser do not offer an accurate picture of the recommendations that real users are seeing. Real users saw slightly more provaccine content as they advanced through their recommendation trajectories, whereas synthetic users were drawn toward irrelevant recommendations as they advanced. Rather than antivaccine content, videos recommended by YouTube are likely to contain health-related content that is not specifically related to vaccination. These videos are usually longer and contain more popular content. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the common perception that YouTube’s recommendation system acts as a “rabbit hole” may be inaccurate and that YouTube may instead be following a “blockbuster” strategy that attempts to engage users by promoting other content that has been reliably successful across the platform

Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox’s Bazar settlement

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable