Application of Strategic Planning Process with Fleet Level Analysis Methods

The goal of this work is to quantify and characterize the potential system-wide reduction of fuel consumption and corresponding CO2 emissions, resulting from the introduction of N+2 aircraft technologies and concepts into the fleet. Although NASA goals for this timeframe are referenced against a large twin aisle aircraft we consider their application across all vehicle classes of the commercial aircraft fleet, from regional jets to very large aircraft. In this work the authors describe and discuss the formulation and implementation of the fleet assessment by addressing the main analytical components: forecasting, operations allocation, fleet retirement, fleet replacement, and environmental performance modeling

Potential Impacts on Ozone and Climate From a Proposed Fleet of Supersonic Aircraft

13-C-AJFE-UI-029This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Please cite this article as: Zhang, J., Wuebbles, D., Pfaender, J. H., Kinnison, D., & Davis, N. (2023). Potential impacts on ozone and climate from a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003409. https://doi. org/10.1029/2022EF003409There has been renewed interest in developing commercial supersonic transport aircraft due to the increased overall demands by the public for air travel, the aspiration for more intercontinental travel, and the desire for shorter flight times. Various companies and academic institutions have been actively considering the designs of such supersonic aircraft. As these new designs are developed, the environmental impact on ozone and climate of these fleets need to be explored. This study examines one such proposed commercial supersonic fleet of 55-seater that is projected to fly at Mach 2.2, corresponding to cruise altitudes of 17\u201320 km, and which would burn 122.32 Tg of fuel and emit 1.78 Tg of NOx each year

Competitive Assessment of Aerospace Systems using System Dynamics

Aircraft design has recently experienced a trend away from performance centric design towards a more balanced approach with increased emphasis on engineering an economically successful system. This approach focuses on bringing forward a comprehensive economic and life-cycle cost analysis, which can be addressed by the introduction of a dynamic method allowing the analysis of the future attractiveness of such a concept in the presence of uncertainty. One way of addressing this is through the use of a competitive market model. However, existing market models do not focus on the dynamics of the market, which results in poor predictive capabilities. The method proposed here focuses on a top-down approach that integrates a competitive model based on work in the field of system dynamics into the aircraft design process. The primary contribution is the demonstration of the feasibility of such integration. This integration is achieved through the use of surrogate models, which enabled not only the practical integration of analysis techniques, but also reduced the computational requirements so that interactive exploration as envisioned is actually possible. An example demonstration of this integration is built on the competition in the 250 seat large commercial aircraft market. Two aircraft models were calibrated to existing performance and certification data and then integrated into the system dynamics market model, which was then calibrated with historical market data. This calibration showed a much improved predictive capability as compared to the conventional logit regression models. The resulting market model was then integrated into a prediction profiler environment with a time variant Monte-Carlo analysis resulting in a unique trade-off environment. This environment was shown to allow interactive trade-off between aircraft design decisions and economic considerations while allowing the exploration potential market success in the light of varying external market conditions and scenarios. Another use of the existing outputs of the Monte-Carlo analysis was then realized by visualizing the model variables on a multivariate scatter plot. This enables the designer to define strategic market and return on investment goals for a number of scenarios and then directly see which specific aircraft designs meet these goals.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Prof. Dimitr Mavris; Committee Member: Dr. Fayette Collier; Committee Member: Dr. Jim McMichael; Committee Member: Dr. Peter Hollingsworth; Committee Member: Prof. Daniel Schrag

Using Response Surface Metamodels to Optimize the Aerodynamic Performance of a High Speed Standoff Missile within a Multi-Disciplinary Environment

Presented at Aircraft Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) 2002 Technical Forum, 1-3 October 2002, Los Angeles, California.This report summarizes the feasibility of implementing a metamodel, consisting of Response Surface Equations (RSE), in a High Speed Standoff Missile (HSSM) multi-disciplinary mission analysis. The metamodel, which is a representation of a physics based engineering tool, is used to optimize the missile aerodynamic performance for any given mission. Each mission is defined as a function of the mission parameters. The optimization schemes use flight condition information and missile requirements from the upstream mission analysis, and find the optimum missile geometry parameters for that mission. The geometry parameters are then returned to the system analysis to complete the mission evaluation under optimal aerodynamic performance. The optimization scheme allows the variation of the missile geometry without increasing the number of runs in a parametric design study, such as a Design of Experiments (DOE). Results are achieved for two modules, namely the fuselage aerodynamics and the tail fin aerodynamics. Metamodel optimization schemes were created and implemented into the modules. The transformed modules were tested to observe the behavior and accuracy of the schemes. Comparison is made between the optimal geometries found with and without the use of the metamodel. The comparison shows that the metamodel optimization returns similar results, and does so in a significantly shorter amount of time. In addition, the aerodynamic design spaces are analyzed in conjunction with the optimization behavior to predict possible problems in the optimization process. The use of the metamodel is shown to alleviate optimization problems such as multi-modal design spaces. The results indicate the usefulness and promise for the proposed metamodel optimization scheme for use in a large scale preliminary design analysis

Potential Impacts on Ozone and Climate From a Proposed Fleet of Supersonic Aircraft

There has been renewed interest in developing commercial supersonic transport aircraft due to the increased overall demands by the public for air travel, the aspiration for more intercontinental travel, and the desire for shorter flight times. Various companies and academic institutions have been actively considering the designs of such supersonic aircraft. As these new designs are developed, the environmental impact on ozone and climate of these fleets need to be explored. This study examines one such proposed commercial supersonic fleet of 55-seater that is projected to fly at Mach 2.2, corresponding to cruise altitudes of 17-20 km, and which would burn 122.32 Tg of fuel and emit 1.78 Tg of NOx each year. Our analyses indicate this proposed fleet would cause a 0.74% reduction in global column ozone (similar to 2 Dobson Units), which is mainly attributed to the large amounts of nitrogen oxides released in the atmosphere from the supersonic aircraft. The maximum ozone loss occurs at the tropics in the fall season, with a reduction of -1.4% in the total column ozone regionally. The stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing on climate from this fleet was derived based on changes in atmospheric concentrations of ozone (59.5 mW/m(2)), water vapor (10.1 mW/m(2)), black carbon (-3.9 mW/m(2)) and sulfate aerosols (-20.3 mW/m(2)), resulting in a net non-CO2, non-contrail forcing of 45.4 mW/m(2), indicating an overall warming effect.Plain Language Summary With the general public's increased demand for air travel, a desire for more intercontinental travel with shorter flight times, there has been renewed interest in developing commercial supersonic transport aircraft. Various companies and academic institutions have been actively considering the design of such a supersonic aircraft. As these new designs are developed, the environmental impact of these realistic fleets on ozone and climate needs to be explored. This study looked at one such supersonic fleet, expected to fly at Mach 2.2, corresponding to a cruising altitude of 17-20 km, that would burn 122.32 Tg of fuel and emit 1.78 Tg of NOx per year. Our analysis shows that this proposed fleet would result in a 0.74% reduction in global columnar ozone (approximately 2 Dobson units), mainly due to the large atmospheric release of nitrogen oxides by supersonic aircraft. The impact on climate from this fleet was derived to have a net forcing of 45.4 mW/m(2), indicating an overall warming effect