COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: 22 Texas Cities

To support planning by cities across Texas, we analyzed all 22 Texas city modules of our US COVID-19 Pandemic Model​ to project the number of hospitalizations under four different social distancing scenarios. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19. There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission. We update our model inputs on a daily basis, as our understanding of the virus improves. Appendix 1 below provides our current estimates. These results are not forecasts and do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in Texas cities. We are sharing these results prior to peer review to provide intuition for policy makers regarding the immediate threat of COVID-19, the risks of medical surges, and the extent to which early social distancing measures can mitigate the threat. Our projections indicate that COVID-19 may quickly exceed healthcare capacity across Texas cities and that extensive social distancing measures can both delay and diminish pandemic surges.Integrative Biolog

COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas

To support planning by the city of Austin, we analyzed the Austin-Round Rock module of our US COVID-19 Pandemic Model​ to project the number of hospitalizations under four different social distancing scenarios. Note that the results presented herein are based on multiple assumptions about the transmission rate and age-specific severity of COVID-19. There is still much we do not understand about the transmission dynamics of this virus, including the extent of asymptomatic infection and transmission. We update our model inputs on a daily basis, as our understanding of the virus improves. These results do not represent the full range of uncertainty. Rather, they are meant to serve as plausible scenarios for gauging the likely impacts of social distancing measures in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area. We are posting these results prior to peer review to provide intuition for both policy makers and the public regarding both the immediate threat of COVID-19 and the extent to which early social distancing measures can mitigate that threat. Our projections indicate that without extensive social distancing measures, the emerging outbreak will quickly surpass healthcare capacity in the region. Although these analyses are specific to the Austin-Round Rock metropolitan area, we expect that the impacts of the mitigation strategies will be qualitatively similar for cities throughout the US.Integrative Biolog

Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand in Central Texas, USA

Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.Dell Medical SchoolIntegrative Biolog

Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas

Background: A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. In the absence of effective antiviral drugs and vaccines, well-targeted social distancing measures are essential for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing strain on local health systems, and preventing mortality. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of the efficacy of social distancing to slow COVID-19 transmission and reduce hospital surge, depending on the timing and extent of the measures imposed for a metropolitan region and its health care systems. Methods and Findings: We built a granular mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporated age-specific and risk-stratified heterogeneity, estimates for the transmission, and severity of COVID-19 using current best evidence. We performed thousands of stochastic simulations of COVID-19 transmission in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area to project the impact of school closures coupled with social distancing measures that were estimated to reduce non-household contacts by 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 90%. We compare early versus late implementation and estimate the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU patients, ventilator needs and deaths through mid-August, 2020. We queried local emergency services and hospital systems to estimate total hospital bed, ICU, and ventilator capacity for the region. We expected COVID-19 hospital beds and ICU requirements would surpass local capacity by mid-May if no intervention was taken. Assuming a four-day epidemic doubling time, school closures alone would be expected to reduce peak hospitalizations by only 18% and cumulative deaths by less than 3%. Immediate social distancing measures that reduced non-household contacts by over 75%, such as stay-at-home orders and closing of non-essential businesses, would be required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. Peak ICU bed demand prior to mid August 2020 would be expected to be reduced from 2,121 (95% CI: 2,0-2,208) with no intervention to 698 (95% CI:204-1,100) with 75% social distancing and 136 (95% CI: 38-308) with 90% social distancing; current ICU bed capacity was estimated at 680. A two-week delay in implementation of such measures is projected to accelerate a local ICU bed shortage by four weeks. Conclusions: School closures alone hardly impact the epidemic curve. Immediate social distancing measures that reduce non-household contacts by over 75% were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. These findings helped inform the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by the city of Austin, Texas on March 24, 2020 as a means of mitigating the emerging COVID-19 epidemic.Dell Medical SchoolIntegrative Biolog

GWAS of QRS Duration Identifies New Loci Specific to Hispanic/Latino Populations

BACKGROUND: The electrocardiographically quantified QRS duration measures ventricular depolarization and conduction. QRS prolongation has been associated with poor heart failure prognosis and cardiovascular mortality, including sudden death. While previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 32 QRS SNPs across 26 loci among European, African, and Asian-descent populations, the genetics of QRS among Hispanics/Latinos has not been previously explored. METHODS: We performed a GWAS of QRS duration among Hispanic/Latino ancestry populations (n = 15,124) from four studies using 1000 Genomes imputed genotype data (adjusted for age, sex, global ancestry, clinical and study-specific covariates). Study-specific results were combined using fixed-effects, inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: We identified six loci associated with QRS (P CONCLUSIONS: Our QRS duration GWAS, the first in Hispanic/Latino populations, identified two new loci, underscoring the utility of extending large scale genomic studies to currently under-examined populations

Multi-ancestry genome-wide study in >2.5 million individuals reveals heterogeneity in mechanistic pathways of type 2 diabetes and complications

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes. To characterise the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% non-European ancestry), including 428,452 T2D cases. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P&lt;5×10 - 8 ) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals characterised by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial, and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned genetic risk scores (GRS) in an additional 137,559 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 10,159 T2D cases, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned GRS are more strongly associated with coronary artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy than an overall T2D GRS across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings demonstrate the value of integrating multi-ancestry GWAS with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity driving the development and progression of T2D, which may offer a route to optimise global access to genetically-informed diabetes care. </p

Genetic drivers of heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease that develops through diverse pathophysiological processes1,2 and molecular mechanisms that are often specific to cell type3,4. Here, to characterize the genetic contribution to these processes across ancestry groups, we aggregate genome-wide association study data from 2,535,601 individuals (39.7% not of European ancestry), including 428,452 cases of T2D. We identify 1,289 independent association signals at genome-wide significance (P &lt; 5 × 10-8) that map to 611 loci, of which 145 loci are, to our knowledge, previously unreported. We define eight non-overlapping clusters of T2D signals that are characterized by distinct profiles of cardiometabolic trait associations. These clusters are differentially enriched for cell-type-specific regions of open chromatin, including pancreatic islets, adipocytes, endothelial cells and enteroendocrine cells. We build cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores5 in a further 279,552 individuals of diverse ancestry, including 30,288 cases of T2D, and test their association with T2D-related vascular outcomes. Cluster-specific partitioned polygenic scores are associated with coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease and end-stage diabetic nephropathy across ancestry groups, highlighting the importance of obesity-related processes in the development of vascular outcomes. Our findings show the value of integrating multi-ancestry genome-wide association study data with single-cell epigenomics to disentangle the aetiological heterogeneity that drives the development and progression of T2D. This might offer a route to optimize global access to genetically informed diabetes care.</p

Genetic Discovery and Risk Characterization in Type 2 Diabetes across Diverse Populations

Genomic discovery and characterization of risk loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D) have been conducted primarily in individuals of European ancestry. We conducted a multiethnic genome-wide association study of T2D among 53,102 cases and 193,679 control subjects from African, Hispanic, Asian, Native Hawaiian, and European population groups in the Population Architecture Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) and Diabetes Genetics Replication and Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) Consortia. In individuals of African ancestry, we discovered a risk variant in th

GWAS of the electrocardiographic QT interval in Hispanics/Latinos generalizes previously identified loci and identifies population-specific signals

QT interval prolongation is a heritable risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and can predispose to sudden death. Most genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of QT were performed in European ancestral populations, leaving other groups uncharacterized. Herein we present the first QT GWAS of Hispanic/Latinos using data on 15,997 participants from four studies. Study-specific summary results of the association between 1000 Genomes Project (1000G) imputed SNPs and electrocardiographically measured QT were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. We identified 41 genome-wide significant SNPs that mapped to 13 previously identified QT loci. Conditional analyses distinguished six secondary signals at NOS1AP (n = 2), ATP1B1 (n = 2), SCN5A (n = 1), and KCNQ1 (n = 1). Comparison of linkage disequilibrium patterns between the 13 lead SNPs and six secondary signals with previously reported index SNPs in 1000G super populations suggested that the SCN5A and KCNE1 lead SNPs were potentially novel and population-specific. Finally, of the 42 suggestively associated loci, AJAP1 was suggestively associated with QT in a prior East Asian GWAS; in contrast BVES and CAP2 murine knockouts caused cardiac conduction defects. Our results indicate that whereas the same loci influence QT across populations, population-specific variation exists, motivating future trans-ethnic and ancestrally diverse QT GWAS