The Effects of Long-Duration Subduction Earthquakes on Inelastic Behavior of Bridge Pile Foundations Subjected to Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Spreading

Effective-stress nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDA) were performed for a large-diameter reinforced concrete (RC) pile in multi-layered liquefiable sloped ground. The objective was to assess the effects of earthquake duration on the combination of inertia and liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. A parametric study was performed using input motions from subduction and crustal earthquakes covering a wide range of motion durations. The NDA results showed that the pile head displacements increased under liquefied conditions, compared to nonliquefied conditions, due to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The NDA results were used to develop a displacement-based equivalent static analysis (ESA) method that combines inertial and lateral spreading loads for estimating elastic and inelastic pile demands

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first ("efficiency") scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second ("long wave") they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a "methane economy" are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with long-wave theories in economics

The role of war in deep transitions: exploring mechanisms, imprints and rules in sociotechnical systems

This paper explores in what ways the two world wars influenced the development of sociotechnical systems underpinning the culmination of the first deep transition. The role of war is an underexplored aspect in both the Techno-Economic Paradigms (TEP) approach and the Multi-level perspective (MLP) which form the two key conceptual building blocks of the Deep Transitions (DT) framework. Thus, we develop a conceptual approach tailored to this particular topic which integrates accounts of total war and mechanisms of war from historical studies and imprinting from organisational studies with the DT framework’s attention towards rules and meta-rules. We explore in what ways the three sociotechnical systems of energy, food, and transport were affected by the emergence of new demand pressures and logistical challenges during conditions of total war; how war impacted the directionality of sociotechnical systems; the extent to which new national and international policy capacities emerged during wartime in the energy, food, and transport systems; and the extent to which these systems were influenced by cooperation and shared sacrifice under wartime conditions. We then explore what lasting changes were influenced by the two wars in the energy, food, and transport systems across the transatlantic zone. This paper seeks to open up a hitherto neglected area in analysis on sociotechnical transitions and we discuss the importance of further research that is attentive towards entanglements of warfare and the military particularly in the field of sustainability transitions

Livestock browsing affects the species composition and structure of cloud forest in the Dhofar Mountains of Oman

Questions: It is frequently reported that overstocking of camels, cattle and goats is degrading the Anogeissus cloud forest, which is endemic to a 200 km stretch of coastal mountains in southern Arabia. However, livestock impacts on the vegetation have not been assessed. Furthermore, we have a limited understanding of the impacts of large-bodied browsing livestock, such as camels, in woodland and forest rangelands. Therefore, in this study, we examine the effects of livestock browsing on the species composition, density, and hytomorphology of woody vegetation in the Anogeissus cloud forests in the Dhofar Mountains of Oman. Location: Data was collected at 30 sites in the Jabal Qamar mountain range in western Dhofar, Oman. Methods: The point-centered quarter method was used to sample the composition, density and structure of woody vegetation. Constrained correspondence analysis was used to quantify the effects of livestock browsing on woody plant species composition, whilst effects on plant density were analysed using mixed effects models. Standardised major axis regression was used to examine differences in height-diameter allometry (stunting) under different stocking rates. Results: Fog density, topographic position and long-term stocking rates were found to be important factors affecting woody species composition. We found lower species diversity and plant density, and higher frequencies of unpalatable species, under higher stocking rates. Juveniles showed a stronger response to stocking rates than adults, and several common species exhibited stunted morphology under high stocking rates. Conclusions: Browsing by large-bodied livestock, such as camels and cattle, can substantially alter the species composition, structure, and phytomorphology of woody vegetation in semi-arid woodlands and forests. Juveniles are particularly susceptible to browsing which alters woody vegetation demography and inhibits regeneration potential. Our results support previous suggestions of overstocking in Dhofar and highlight the importance of swift measures to reduce livestock browsing pressure in the Anogeissus cloud forests

Institutional interactions and economic growth: The joint effects of property rights, veto players and democratic capital

We investigate the possible interaction effects that the extent of property rights protection and separation of powers in a political system have on economic growth. Using analysis of panel data from more than countries over the period 1970-2010 we find that the growth effects of property rights increase when political power is divided among more veto players. When distinguishing between institutional veto players (political institutions) and partisan veto players (fractionalization among political parties), we further find that the growth effects of property rights are driven mainly by checks on the chief executive (in bicameral systems) and primarily found in countries with large stocks of democratic capital