16 research outputs found

    Correcting Predictive ModelCorrecting Models of Chaotic Reality

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    We will assume a chaotic (mixing) reality, can observe a substantially aggregated state vector only and want to predict one or more of its elements using a stochastic model. However, chaotic dynamics can be predicted in a short term only, while in the long term an ergodic distribution is the best predictor. Our stochastic model will thus be considered a local approximation with no predictive ability for the far future. Using an estimate of an ergodic distribution of the predicted scalar (or eventually vector), we get, under additional reasonable assumptions, the uniquely specified resulting model, containing information from both the local model and the ergodic distribution. For a small prediction horizon, if the local model converges in probability to a constant and additional technical assumption is fulfilled, the resulting model converges in L1 norm to the local model. In long term, the resulting model converges in L1 to the ergodic distribution. We propose also a formula for computing the resulting model from the nonparametric specification of the ergodic distribution (using past observations directly). Two examples follow.Chaotic system; Prediction; Bayesian Analysis; Local Approximation; Ergodic Distribution

    Stress Testing of Probability of Default of Individuals

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    This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators such as wages, unemployment and interest rates. Stress testing is carried out by applying exogenous stress scenarios for development of these indicators. The model implies that sensitivity of probability of default to the stress is mainly driven by Installment to Income Ratio and for mortgages also by loan maturity. Hence Installment to Income ratio is suggested as the appropriate tool to manage credit risk of retail portfolios.banking; credit risk; stress testing; probability of default

    Stress testing of probability of default of individuals

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    This paper introduces a model for stress testing of probability of default of individuals. The model rests on assumption that the individual defaults if his savings fall below zero. The probability of default is then described as a function of several macroeconomic indicators such as wages, unemployment and interest rates. Stress testing is carried out by applying exogenous stress scenarios for development of these indicators. The model implies that sensitivity of probability of default to the stress is mainly driven by Installment to Income Ratio and for mortgages also by loan maturity. Hence Installment to Income ratio is suggested as the appropriate tool to manage credit risk of retail portfolios

    Úkoly a činnosti Zdravotnické záchranné služby Jihočeského kraje při evakuaci osob ze zóny havarijního plánování Jaderné elektrárny Temelín

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    The thesis describes Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region as the provider of pre-hospital urgent care in the zone of emergency planning of Nuclear Power Plant Temelín. In case radiation emergency arises, its main urgent target is to save as many affected people as possible and to limit the effects on their physical disabilities. Medical intervention by the Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region crews is provided to people with serious health problems or in immediate life danger who participate in rescue and emergency work directly in the epicentre of the radiation emergency of Nuclear Power Plant Temelín. It also provides pre-hospital urgent care to the inhabitants who have already been evacuated right in the zone of emergency planning, on the evacuation routes, on the decontamination points and based on the emergency call also in the receiving centre or emergency accommodation points. The main aim of the thesis is to identify and clarify basic principles of tasks completion and workload of outgoing Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region crews in case of an emergency event occurrence - the radiation emergency at Nuclear Power Plant Temelín. The theoretical part describes the status of the Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region within the Integrated Rescue System in the case of radiation emergency. Attention is also paid to material and technical equipment aimed at personal protection during the intervention in the contaminated environment. Content analysis of key executive documentation and legal regulations research have been made in this part whose synthesis leads to a comprehensive professional text predicting the procedure of urgent medical intervention made by the medical rescue service in the zone of emergency planning. The practical part includes the network analysis of transportation availability of individual decontamination points by the medical rescue service vehicles. Based on the findings, the index of alert has been calculated that reflects the quality and availability of pre-hospital urgent care to the evacuated inhabitants in the decontamination point as the key point of evacuation from the zone of emergency planning. The results proved readiness of the Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region in the decontamination points to tasks completion and workload of medical provision of evacuation from the zone of emergency planning of Nuclear Power Plant Temelín. The thesis has become a concentrated overview as well as operating material for the paramedics working at Medical Rescue Service of South Bohemia Region who could deal with the uneasy task of intervention in the zone of emergency planning of Nuclear Power Plant Temelín. It also reflects the need of preparing a unitary documentation describing the procedure in radiation emergency

    Makrozoobentos řeky Svratky -- změny složení společenstva makrozoobentosu v podélném profilu

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    This thesis deals with the observation of a change of macroinvertebrate in the longitudinal profile of the river Svratka. The monitoring of macroinvertebrate was accomplished at se-ven locations of the Svratka river during the july of 2012. Samples were collected from various locations by the workers of Mendel university and subsequently processed and determined in the university laboratory by the author of the thesis. The diversity of species and thein abundance were evaluated. On these seven sites were found a total of eleven groups of macroinvertebrate, with the largest groups of Ephemeroptera, Coleoptera, Dipte-ra and Trichoptera The taxonomic composition and abundance were evaluated from the obtained data. Both factors were changing towards the flow of the river. Taxonomic com-position got richer and abundance got slightly increased. The taxonomic composition of macroinvertebrates was changing in the longitudinal profile of the river. The examined stretch of the river Svratka is relatively stable, no significant changes were noted

    A Simple Model of Interaction Between CPI and PPI: Application to Monthly Data of EU Countries

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    We consider two markets in our model: wholesale, where producers' supply interacts with distributors' demand, and retail with distributors' supply and consumers' demand. The wholesale market determines the producer price index (PPI), production and indirectly also employment. In the retail market the consumer price index (CPI) is formed. We specify a simple dynamic model with two state variables: CPI and PPI. Real variables - production and employment - are fully determined by CPI and PPI. A supply shock shows itself in instant PPI adjustment, a demand shock in CPI. Thus, in the CPI inflation equation the supply shocks are fully determined endogenously by the wholesale - retail markets relationship and for practical use we should add exogenous demand shock to the equation. On the other hand, it would be suitable to add exogenous supply shocks to the PPI inflation, production and employment equations. In the second part we implement the model on monthly data of EU countries. It will be necessary modify the model specification so that we coped with the problems of seasonality and not exactly the same structure of baskets, used for CPI and PPI computations. We estimate each equation of the model both for each single country separately and for the whole panel.inflation, employment, production, panel data, Producer and consumer prices, Static and regressive expectations

    Choice between the Discrete and Continuous Models in Economic Applications and Its Implications

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    When building a dynamic model we express an impact of past on future state variables. We usually know if the change should be positive or negative and have an idea about a magnitude of the change. But if we express the change with either a difference or a derivative often depends on such factors, as is ease of evaluation of discrete models. We show that this choice may have important stability implications. We choose a more general approach and consider the choice not only between discrete and continuous models but among discrete models with various lengths of the step (considering a continuous model be a discrete model with infinitely small step). We derive a closed form formula that says if the equilibrium point in a system with a particular step length is stable or not and some implications about the stability of the same system with different step lengths. As a special case we get a relationship between stability of a discrete model and the corresponding continuous model where a difference was substituted by a derivative.stability, discrete models, continuous models

    Nursing care for the mother who has just given birth and for the newborn in the conditions of prehospital emergency care

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    The nursing care for the woman who has just given birth and for the newborn is performed by a member of the medical rescue service team, i.e. by a non-medical health professional. A non-medical health professional is considered a specialized nurse or a paramedic. During his career a paramedic may encounter the ongoing or the completed childbirth out of the hospital environment. He has merely a maternity package and other standard equipment of the rescue service vehicle at his disposal. However, in spite of this handicap, when comparing the hospital facilities, the paramedic must carry out the same professional performance, equally as in other acute situations. It is vital to offer the mother and the newborn the maximum of care and above all, to minimalize the threat to life. His task is therefore to be both theoretically and practically prepared for the childbirth in the field, including the following care for the mother and for the newborn in the conditions out of a healthcare institution. The bachelor thesis dealing the topic ?Nursing care for the mother who has just given birth and for the newborn in the conditions of prehospital emergency care? is divided into two parts, theoretical and practical. The theoretical part deals with the ongoing delivery with the presence of a paramedic and with the temporary absence of a doctor. Among other points the bachelor work deals with the equipment of the rescue team vehicle suitable for the delivery, with medical examination of the woman, transport of the woman and the foetus in utero (i.e. in the uterus) to the hospital, accomplishment of the childbirth out of the hospital environment and the following nursing care for the woman and the newborn. Due to the complex topic, I deal exclusively with the physiological childbirth, without including all possible complications that might accompany the delivery. The research of the bachelor thesis examines both the theoretical knowledge and the practical experience of the paramedics with an on going childbirth in prehospital conditions, including the following nursing care for the woman and the newborn. In connection with the objectives, the hypothesis has been set ? the paramedics have sufficient theoretical knowledge with on going deliveries including the following nursing care for the woman and the newborn. The quantitative research, the method of questioning and the questionnaire have been applied. As a technique of questioning a printed, standardised and anonymous questionnaire has been used. The data were being collected since February to March 2013. The paramedics from the medical rescue service of the South Bohemia were chosen as a target group, forming together the sample of 102 persons. In order to confirm the given hypothesis, a set of specific seventeen questions focused on the nursing care for the woman and the newborn have been determined. The responses were counted, elaborated by the SPSS program and inserted into synoptic tables. Each question has been then statistically interpreted by the Pearson's chi-squared test. All in all, the adequate level of the theoretical knowledge was proved only in case of ten questions, the rest of the questions did not reach the sufficient level of the statistic importance. Therefore, it results from the research that paramedics do not have sufficient theoretical knowledge; the hypothesis has been then rejected. The reason is probably due to low frequency of childbirth situations in conditions of the prehospital emergency care. This work should serve especially to students and paramedics as a source and the summary of the information needed, mainly in the domain of the childbirth in the prehospital emergency care and nursing care for the woman and the newborn. The results of the research may become an impulse for launching special seminars dealing with both theoretical part and the practical rehearsal for the maternity situations in prehospital conditions

    Analysis of total factor productivity contribution to economic growth of the Czech Republic

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    Our study contains application of Latent Semantic Indexing on financial crises prediction. Hypothesis to test was that equity markets are able to predict even sharp changes in monetary policy during a quarter ahead of such a change (which was searched during two quarters that followed). This hypothesis, tested on sample of 36 countries between years 1985 and 2007, has been confirmed according to interest rate and foreign exchange expert interpretation. The studied application of LSI even though it timed several crises on their exact start day is not suitable for financial crises prediction but can be recommended for specification and analysis of fragile countries which are or could be prone to a crisis
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