Pleural mesothelioma and lung cancer risks in relation to occupational history and asbestos lung burden.

BACKGROUND: We have conducted a population-based study of pleural mesothelioma patients with occupational histories and measured asbestos lung burdens in occupationally exposed workers and in the general population. The relationship between lung burden and risk, particularly at environmental exposure levels, will enable future mesothelioma rates in people born after 1965 who never installed asbestos to be predicted from their asbestos lung burdens. METHODS: Following personal interview asbestos fibres longer than 5 µm were counted by transmission electron microscopy in lung samples obtained from 133 patients with mesothelioma and 262 patients with lung cancer. ORs for mesothelioma were converted to lifetime risks. RESULTS: Lifetime mesothelioma risk is approximately 0.02% per 1000 amphibole fibres per gram of dry lung tissue over a more than 100-fold range, from 1 to 4 in the most heavily exposed building workers to less than 1 in 500 in most of the population. The asbestos fibres counted were amosite (75%), crocidolite (18%), other amphiboles (5%) and chrysotile (2%). CONCLUSIONS: The approximate linearity of the dose-response together with lung burden measurements in younger people will provide reasonably reliable predictions of future mesothelioma rates in those born since 1965 whose risks cannot yet be seen in national rates. Burdens in those born more recently will indicate the continuing occupational and environmental hazards under current asbestos control regulations. Our results confirm the major contribution of amosite to UK mesothelioma incidence and the substantial contribution of non-occupational exposure, particularly in women

Electrocardiographic safety evaluation of dihydroartemisinin piperaquine in the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) could become a leading fixed combination malaria treatment worldwide. Although there is accumulating evidence of efficacy and safety from clinical trials, data on cardiotoxicity are limited. In two randomized controlled trials in Thailand, 56 patients had ECGs performed before treatment, 4 hours after the first dose, and 4 hours after the last dose. The mean (95% CI) changes in QTc interval (Bazett's correction) were 2 (-6 to 9) ms and 14 (7 to 21) ms, respectively. These small changes on the third day of treatment are similar to those observed elsewhere in the convalescent phase following antimalarial treatment with drugs known to have no cardiac effects and are therefore likely to result from recovery from acute malaria and not the treatment given. At therapeutic doses, DP does not have clinically significant effects on the electrocardiogram

The TD50: a proposed general convention for the numerical description of the carcinogenic potency of chemicals in chronic-exposure animal experiments.

A generally accepted format for the numerical description of the carcinogenic potency of a particular chemical in a particular strain of animals is desirable so that statements from different sources about potency and attempts by different authors to correlate potency with particular laboratory measurements will be comparable. The choice of an appropriate standard format is to a certain extent arbitrary. In this paper we recommend that the TD50 (tumorigenic dose rate 50) be used. TD50 can be calculated for a single target site or combination of sites. The TD50, in analogy with the LD50, is defined as that chronic dose rate (in mg/kg body weight/day) which would halve the actuarially adjusted percentage of tumor-free animals at the end of a standard experiment time--the "standard lifespan" for the species. This paper consists of a brief discussion of the TD50, sufficient to make the general reader familiar with the properties of such an index, an appendix discussing methods for its estimation and certain conventions we have adopted for use in analyzing "nonstandard" experiments. A major problem in calculating any index of carcinogenic potency is that much published material gives only the final crude percentage of tumor-bearing animals at each dose, instead of percentages adjusted for the effects of intercurrent mortality or data from which these adjusted percentages can be derived. If the dose level administered to the animals is toxic, then premature death from nonneoplastic causes may prevent some dosed animals that would have developed tumors from actually doing so. This will particularly affect the high-dose group.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS

Retinal phenotyping of variants of Alzheimer's disease using ultra-widefield retinal images

Background: Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is the most common atypical variant of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Changes associated with PCA in the brain affect the visual cortex, but little is known about retinal changes in PCA. In this study, we explored retinal phenotypic variations in typical AD (tAD) and PCA. Methods: Retinal phenotyping was carried out on ultra-widefield (UWF) images of 69 control, 24 tAD, and 25 PCA participants. Results: Individuals with tAD (odds ratio [OR] = 2.76 [confidence interval (CI):1.24 to 6.10], P = .012) and PCA (OR = 3.40 [CI:1.25 to 9.22], P = .016) were more likely phenotyped as hard drusen. tAD (OR = 0.34 [CI:0.12 to 0.92], P = .035) were less likely to have soft drusen compared to control. Almost 3-fold increase in reticular pseudodrusen formation in tAD (OR = 2.93 [CI:1.10 to 7.76], P = .030) compared to control was estimated. Discussion: Studying the peripheral retina may contribute to a better understanding of differences in retinal phenotypes of different AD variants

Cancer and ageing in mice and men.

In an experiment involving 950 mice with a normal lifespan of 2-3 years, in laboratory conditions, regular benzpyrene application to the skin was started at 10, 25, 40 or 55 weeks of age. The incidence rate of malignant epithelial tumours among the survivors in each group increased steeply with time. This increase was associated directly with duration of exposure but, given duration, was independent of age at the start of exposure, as were the growth rates of already established tumours. In our experiment, although age per se was irrelevant, the cancer incidence rate increased approximately as a power of the duration of exposure to benzpyrene. This shows that the observed approximate power-law increase of most human adult cancer incidence rates with age could exist merely because age equals duration of exposure to background and spontaneous carcinogenic stimuli. Thus, no intrinsic effects of ageing (such as failing immunological surveillance or age related hormonal changes) whatever need to postulated to explain the vast increases in old age of the incidence rates of such human cancers. This result can greatly simplify speculation about mechanisms of carcinogenesis

High-dose oral vitamin D supplementation and mortality in people aged 65-84 years: the VIDAL cluster feasibility RCT of open versus double-blind individual randomisation.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials demonstrating improved longevity are needed to justify high-dose vitamin D supplementation for older populations. OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of a large trial (n ≈ 20,000) of high-dose vitamin D in people aged 65-84 years through general practitioner (GP) practices, and to cluster randomise participating practices between open-label and double-blind randomisation to compare effects on recruitment, compliance and contamination. DESIGN: Twenty GP practices were randomised in matched pairs between open-label and double-blind allocation. Within each practice, patients were individually randomised to vitamin D or control (i.e. no treatment or placebo). Participants were invited to attend their GP practice to provide a blood sample and complete a lifestyle questionnaire at recruitment and again at 2 years. Randomisation by telephone followed receipt of a serum corrected calcium assay confirming eligibility ( 400 IU vitamin D per day at 2 years was 5.0% in open practices and 4.8% in double-blind practices. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 51.5 nmol/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 50.2 to 52.8 nmol/l] with 82.6% of participants < 75 nmol/l at baseline. At 2 years, this increased to 109.6 nmol/l (95% CI 107.1 to 112.1 nmol/l) with 12.0% < 75 nmol/l in those allocated to vitamin D and was unaltered at 51.8 nmol/l (95% CI 49.8 to 53.8 nmol/l) in those allocated to no vitamin D (no treatment or placebo). CONCLUSIONS: A trial could recruit 20,000 participants aged 65-84 years through 200 GP practices over 2 years. Approximately 80% would be expected to adhere to allocated treatment (vitamin D or placebo) for 5 years. The trial could be conducted entirely by e-mail in participants aged < 80 years, but some participants aged 80-84 years would require postal follow-up. Recruitment and treatment compliance would be similar and contamination (self-administration of vitamin D) would be minimal, whether control participants are randomised openly to no treatment with no contact during the trial or randomised double-blind to placebo with monthly reminders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN46328341 and EudraCT database 2011-003699-34. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infectivity by Viral Load, S Gene Variants and Demographic Factors, and the Utility of Lateral Flow Devices to Prevent Transmission

BACKGROUND: How SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies with viral load is incompletely understood. Whether rapid point-of-care antigen lateral flow devices (LFDs) detect most potential transmission sources despite imperfect clinical sensitivity is unknown. METHODS: We combined SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing data from England between 01-September-2020 and 28-February-2021. We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate relationships between PCR-confirmed infection in contacts of community-diagnosed cases and index case viral load, S gene target failure (proxy for B.1.1.7 infection), demographics, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, social deprivation, and contact event type. We used LFD performance to simulate the proportion of cases with a PCR-positive contact expected to be detected using one of four LFDs. RESULTS: 231,498/2,474,066(9%) contacts of 1,064,004 index cases tested PCR-positive. PCR-positive results in contacts independently increased with higher case viral loads (lower Ct values) e.g., 11.7%(95%CI 11.5-12.0%) at Ct=15 and 4.5%(4.4-4.6%) at Ct=30. B.1.1.7 infection increased PCR-positive results by ~50%, (e.g. 1.55-fold, 95%CI 1.49-1.61, at Ct=20). PCR-positive results were most common in household contacts (at Ct=20.1, 8.7%[95%CI 8.6-8.9%]), followed by household visitors (7.1%[6.8-7.3%]), contacts at events/activities (5.2%[4.9-5.4%]), work/education (4.6%[4.4-4.8%]), and least common after outdoor contact (2.9%[2.3-3.8%]). Contacts of children were the least likely to test positive, particularly following contact outdoors or at work/education. The most and least sensitive LFDs would detect 89.5%(89.4-89.6%) and 83.0%(82.8-83.1%) of cases with PCR-positive contacts respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 infectivity varies by case viral load, contact event type, and age. Those with high viral loads are the most infectious. B.1.1.7 increased transmission by ~50%. The best performing LFDs detect most infectious cases

A semi-parametric approach to estimate risk functions associated with multi-dimensional exposure profiles: application to smoking and lung cancer

A common characteristic of environmental epidemiology is the multi-dimensional aspect of exposure patterns, frequently reduced to a cumulative exposure for simplicity of analysis. By adopting a flexible Bayesian clustering approach, we explore the risk function linking exposure history to disease. This approach is applied here to study the relationship between different smoking characteristics and lung cancer in the framework of a population based case control study

Preferences for Medical Consultations from Online Providers: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in the United Kingdom

Background: In the UK, consultations for prescription medicines are available via private providers such as online pharmacies. However, these providers may have lower thresholds for prescribing certain drugs. This is a particular concern for antibiotics, given the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Public preferences for consultations with online providers are unknown, hence the impact of increased availability of online consultations on antibiotic use and population health is unclear. Objective: To conduct a discrete choice experiment survey to understand UK public preferences for seeking online consultations, and the factors that influence these preferences, in the context of having symptoms for which antibiotics may be appropriate. Methods: In a survey conducted between July and August 2018, general population respondents completed 16 questions in which they chose a primary care consultation via either their local medical centre or an online provider. Consultations were described in terms of five attributes, including cost and similarity to traditional ‘face-to-face’ appointments. Choices were modelled using regression analysis. Results: Respondents (n = 734) placed a high value on having a consultation via their local medical centre rather than an online provider, and a low value on consultations by phone or video. However, respondents characterised as ‘busy young professionals’ showed a lower strength of preference for traditional consultations, with a higher concern for convenience. Conclusion: Before COVID-19, the UK public had limited appetite for consultations with online providers, or for consultations that were not face-to-face. Nevertheless, prescriptions from online providers should be monitored going forward, particularly for antibiotics, and in key patient groups