THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL GAINS TAX TREATMENTS ON OPTIMAL LIVESTOCK ENTERPRISE SELECTION

Livestock Production/Industries,

Ecology and geography of avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) transmission in the Middle East and northeastern Africa

Background: The emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 ("HPAI-H5N1") has spread broadly in the past decade, and is now the focus of considerable concern. We tested the hypothesis that spatial distributions of HPAI-H5N1 cases are related consistently and predictably to coarse-scale environmental features in the Middle East and northeastern Africa. We used ecological niche models to relate virus occurrences to 8 km resolution digital data layers summarizing parameters of monthly surface reflectance and landform. Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas. Results: In almost all tests, HPAI-H5N1 cases were indeed occurring under predictable sets of environmental conditions, generally predicted absent from areas with low NDVI values and minimal seasonal variation, and present in areas with a broad range of and appreciable seasonal variation in NDVI values. Although we documented significant predictive ability of our models, even between our study region and West Africa, case occurrences in the Arabian Peninsula appear to follow a distinct environmental regime. Conclusion: Overall, we documented a variable environmental "fingerprint" for areas suitable for HPAI-H5N1 transmission

Risk mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza distribution and spread

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art15/The rapid emergence and spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza begs effective and accurate mapping of current knowledge and future risk of infection. Methods for such mapping, however, are rudimentary, and few good examples exist for use as templates for risk-mapping efforts. We review the transmission cycle of avian influenza viruses, and identify points on which risk-mapping can focus. We provide examples from the literature and from our work that illustrate mapping risk based on (1) avian influenza case occurrences, (2) poultry distributions and movements, and (3) migratory bird movements

Ecology and geography of avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) transmission in the Middle East and northeastern Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 ("HPAI-H5N1") has spread broadly in the past decade, and is now the focus of considerable concern. We tested the hypothesis that spatial distributions of HPAI-H5N1 cases are related consistently and predictably to coarse-scale environmental features in the Middle East and northeastern Africa.</p> <p>We used ecological niche models to relate virus occurrences to 8 km resolution digital data layers summarizing parameters of monthly surface reflectance and landform. Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In almost all tests, HPAI-H5N1 cases were indeed occurring under predictable sets of environmental conditions, generally predicted absent from areas with low NDVI values and minimal seasonal variation, and present in areas with a broad range of and appreciable seasonal variation in NDVI values. Although we documented significant predictive ability of our models, even between our study region and West Africa, case occurrences in the Arabian Peninsula appear to follow a distinct environmental regime.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Overall, we documented a variable environmental "fingerprint" for areas suitable for HPAI-H5N1 transmission.</p

Continent-wide association of H5N1 outbreaks in wild and domestic birds in Europe

The highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 was first detected in Europe in 2005, and has since been documented continent-wide in wild birds and poultry. However, the relative roles of each host group in transmission remain contentious. Using recently developed tools for analysis of ecological niches and geographic distributions of species, we compared ecological niche requirements for H5N1 between paired host groups (poultry versus wild birds, Anseriformes versus Falconiformes, swans versus non-swan Anseriformes). If environmental signals of different host groups are significantly different, the groups are likely to be involved in distinct transmission cycles. In contrast, models for which similarity cannot be rejected imply no unique ecological niches and no potential linkage of transmission cycles. In 24 similarity tests, we found significant similarity (13/24) or no significant differences (9/24). Although 2 of the 24 analyses showed significant differences, neither was unequivocal, so we conclude an overall signal of niche similarity among groups. We thus could not document distinct ecological niches for H5N1 occurrences in different host groups and conclude that the transmission cycles are broadly interwoven

Flux of nutrients from Russian rivers to the Arctic Ocean: Can we establish a baseline against which to judge future changes?

Climate models predict significant warming in the Arctic in the 21st century, which will impact the functioning of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well as alter land‐ocean interactions in the Arctic. Because river discharge and nutrient flux integrate large‐scale processes, they should be sensitive indicators of change, but detection of future changes requires knowledge of current conditions. Our objective in this paper is to evaluate the current state of affairs with respect to estimating nutrient flux to the Arctic Ocean from Russian rivers. To this end we provide estimates of contemporary (1970s–1990s) nitrate, ammonium, and phosphate fluxes to the Arctic Ocean for 15 large Russian rivers. We rely primarily on the extensive data archives of the former Soviet Union and current Russian Federation and compare these values to other estimates and to model predictions. Large discrepancies exist among the various estimates. These uncertainties must be resolved so that the scientific community will have reliable data with which to calibrate Arctic biogeochemical models and so that we will have a baseline against which to judge future changes (either natural or anthropogenic) in the Arctic watershed

Harnessing Museum Resources for the Census of Marine Life: The FISHNET Project

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