Planned Adaptation in Design and Testing of Critical Infrastructure: The Case of Flood Safety in The Netherlands

In the Netherlands, dykes and other primary water defence works are assets that are essential to keep the society and economy functioning, by protecting against flooding from sea and rivers due to extreme events. Given that 55% of the country is at risk of flooding, primary water defence works belong to its critical infrastructure. Many factors influence the risk and impact of flooding. Besides physical factors (e.g., landscape design, climate change) also socio-economic factors (e.g., population, assets) are important. Given that these factors change and feature complex and uncertain behaviour in past and future, the design and regulation of this critical infrastructure will have to be flexible enough to be able to deal with such changes. ‘Planned Adaptation’ refers to regulatory programmes that plan for future changes in knowledge by producing new knowledge and revising rules at regular intervals. This study describes the emergence of the next generation of Dutch primary water defence infrastructure, which through the stepwise implementation of Planned Adaptation for design and testing of primary water defence works in the mid-1990s has moved beyond the Delta Works approach of 1953 and subsequent unplanned adaptations. This has prepared the ground for the recent introduction of Adaptive Delta Management, which makes an integral part of the new Delta Plan for the Netherlands that was published on 16 September 2014 and which is also analysed in this study

Uncertainty and god: A Jamesian pragmatist approach to uncertainty and ignorance in science and religion

This article picks up from William James's pragmatism and metaphysics of experience, as expressed in his "radical empiricism," and further develops this Jamesian pragmatist approach to uncertainty and ignorance by connecting it to phenomenological thought. The Jamesian pragmatist approach avoids both a "crude naturalism" and an "absolutist rationalism," and allows for identification of intimations of the sacred in both scientific and religious practices-which all, in their respective ways, try to make sense of a complex world. Analogous to religious practices, emotion and the metaphysics of experience play a central role in science, especially the emotion of wonder. Engaging in scientific or religious practices may create opportunities for individuals to realize that they are co-creators of the world in partnership with God, in full awareness of uncertainty and ignorance and filled with the emotion of wonder

Diplomacy in action: Latourian Politics and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reviews scientific literature on climate change in an attempt to make scientific knowledge about climate change accessible to a wide audience that includes policymakers. Documents produced by the IPCC are subject to negotiations in plenary sessions, which can be frustrating for the scientists and government delegations involved, who all have stakes in getting their respective interests met. This paper draws on the work of Bruno Latour in order to formulate a so-called ‘diplomatic’ approach to knowledge assessment in global climate governance. Such an approach, we argue, helps to make climate governance more inclusive by helping to identify values of parties involved with the IPCC plenaries, and allowing those parties to recognize their mutual interests and perspectives on climate change. Drawing on observations during IPCC plenaries, this paper argues that a Latourian form of diplomacy can lead to more inclusive negotiations in climate governance

The shaping of anticipation: The networked development of inferential capacity in governing Southeast Asian deltas

Motivated by foreseeable changes in the Earth's systems, governments across the world learn to anticipate the consequences. Understanding how such anticipation comes about should ease its further development. We therefore explore the central capacity within anticipatory governance: the capacity to infer future consequences. Such inferential capacity consists of tools, techniques, and practices increasing an agent's options to infer consequences. We examine the development of this capacity for two Southeast Asian deltas, using data from a multi-sited ethnography and a social network analysis. These methods combine the small-scale ‘lived’ perspective of agents and the multiscale network in which these agents deploy strategies to entrench tools, techniques, and practices for inferential capacity. Strategic choices in positioning for network effects and fostering reciprocity matter, while values and historical contingencies cannot be brushed aside

How networked organisations build capacity for anticipatory governance in South East Asian deltas

Building capacity for governments to make inferences about future developments enhances their ability to anticipate and plan for climate change adaptation. This study examines the question: how do networked organisations build capacity for anticipatory governance through project-based interactions? We analyse a global network of organisations that mobilise climate and hydrological modelling technologies into the Chao Phraya and Ayeyarwaddy deltas. The methodology innovatively combines ethnographic data with policy analysis and social network analysis. Findings suggest that organisations consolidate technology and knowledge transfer through a global network. However, their governance effect in enhancing anticipatory decision making is found to be marginal at the local level. We argue that anticipatory governance practices need a balancing of foresight tools and techniques with local institutional arrangements in order to be effective. We further demonstrate that technology transfer projects need to be backed up with social and strategic capacity building in order to nurture consistent anticipatory governance in different cultural contexts. We conclude that preventive actions, together with transparent operational response frameworks, could significantly improve resilience and adaptability of local knowledge systems and institutions dealing with climate change adaptation. Such integration could enable anticipatory response measures to better manage risk, as well as increase institutional cooperation for long term environmental planning