COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and for evaluating the ethical issues associated with the tacit willingness to pay substantially more for life years lost to the epidemic, than for those to other diseases. Against this background Verity et al. (2020, Lancet Infections Diseases) have rapidly assembled case data and used statistical modelling to infer the IFR for COVID-19. We have attempted an in-depth statistical review of their approach, to identify to what extent the data are sufficiently informative about the IFR to play a greater role than the modelling assumptions, and have tried to identify those assumptions that appear to play a key role. Given the difficulties with other data sources, we provide a crude alternative analysis based on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship data and case data from China, and argue that, given the data problems, modelling of clinical data to obtain the IFR can only be a stop-gap measure. What is needed is near direct measurement of epidemic size by PCR and/or antibody testing of random samples of the at risk population.Comment: Version accepted by the Lancet Infectious Diseases. See previous version for less terse presentatio

Constraints on Automorphic Forms of Higher Derivative Terms from Compactification

By dimensionally reducing the higher derivative corrections of ten-dimensional IIB theory on a torus we deduce constraints on the E_{n+1} automorphic forms that occur in d=10-n dimensions. In particular we argue that these automorphic forms involve the representation of E_{n+1} with fundamental weight \lambda^{n+1}, which is also the representation to which the string charges in d dimensions belong. We also consider a similar calculation for the reduction of higher derivative terms in eleven-dimensional M-theory.Comment: Minor corrections, to appear in JHE

Some Issues in the Art Image Database Systems

In this paper we illustrate several aspects of art databases, such as: the spread of the multimedia art images; the main characteristics of art images; main art images search models; unique characteristics for art image retrieval; the importance of the sensory and semantic gaps. In addition, we present several interesting features of an art image database, such as: image indexing; feature extraction; analysis on various levels of precision; style classification. We stress color features and their base, painting analysis and painting styles. We study also which MPEG-7 descriptors are best for fine painting images retrieval. An experimental system is developed to see how these descriptors work on 900 art images from several remarkable art periods. On the base of our experiments some suggestions for improving the process of searching and analysis of fine art images are given

Higher derivative type II string effective actions, automorphic forms and E11

By dimensionally reducing the ten-dimensional higher derivative type IIA string theory effective action we place constraints on the automorphic forms that appear in the effective action in lower dimensions. We propose a number of properties of such automorphic forms and consider the prospects that E11 can play a role in the formulation of the higher derivative string theory effective action.Comment: 34 page

Covariant Quantization of Superstrings Without Pure Spinor Constraints

We construct a covariant quantum superstring, extending Berkovits' approach by introducing new ghosts to relax the pure spinor constraints. The central charge of the underlying Kac-Moody algebra, which would lead to an anomaly in the BRST charge, is treated as a new generator with a new b-c system. We construct a nilpotent BRST current, an anomalous ghost current and an anomaly-free energy-momentum tensor. For open superstrings, we find the correct massless spectrum. In addition, we construct a Lorentz invariant B-field to be used for the computation of the integrated vertex operators and amplitudes.Comment: 30 page

Lithium in strong magnetic fields

The electronic structure of the lithium atom in a strong magnetic field 0 <= gamma <= 10 is investigated. Our computational approach is a full configuration interaction method based on a set of anisotropic Gaussian orbitals that is nonlinearly optimized for each field strength. Accurate results for the total energies and one-electron ionization energies for the ground and several excited states for each of the symmetries ^20^+, ^2(-1)^+, ^4(-1)^+, ^4(-1)^-, ^2(-2)^+, ^4(-2)^+, $^4(-3)^{+}$ are presented. The behaviour of these energies as a function of the field strength is discussed and classified. Transition wave lengths for linear and circular polarized transitions are presented as well.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

A platform for the discovery of new macrolide antibiotics.

The chemical modification of structurally complex fermentation products, a process known as semisynthesis, has been an important tool in the discovery and manufacture of antibiotics for the treatment of various infectious diseases. However, many of the therapeutics obtained in this way are no longer effective, because bacterial resistance to these compounds has developed. Here we present a practical, fully synthetic route to macrolide antibiotics by the convergent assembly of simple chemical building blocks, enabling the synthesis of diverse structures not accessible by traditional semisynthetic approaches. More than 300 new macrolide antibiotic candidates, as well as the clinical candidate solithromycin, have been synthesized using our convergent approach. Evaluation of these compounds against a panel of pathogenic bacteria revealed that the majority of these structures had antibiotic activity, some efficacious against strains resistant to macrolides in current use. The chemistry we describe here provides a platform for the discovery of new macrolide antibiotics and may also serve as the basis for their manufacture

World-line Quantisation of a Reciprocally Invariant System

We present the world-line quantisation of a system invariant under the symmetries of reciprocal relativity (pseudo-unitary transformations on ``phase space coordinates" $(x^\mu(\tau),p^\mu(\tau))$ which preserve the Minkowski metric and the symplectic form, and global shifts in these coordinates, together with coordinate dependent transformations of an additional compact phase coordinate, $\theta(\tau)$). The action is that of free motion over the corresponding Weyl-Heisenberg group. Imposition of the first class constraint, the generator of local time reparametrisations, on physical states enforces identification of the world-line cosmological constant with a fixed value of the quadratic Casimir of the quaplectic symmetry group $Q(D-1,1)\cong U(D-1,1)\ltimes H(D)$, the semi-direct product of the pseudo-unitary group with the Weyl-Heisenberg group (the central extension of the global translation group, with central extension associated to the phase variable $\theta(\tau)$). The spacetime spectrum of physical states is identified. Even though for an appropriate range of values the restriction enforced by the cosmological constant projects out negative norm states from the physical spectrum, leaving over spin zero states only, the mass-squared spectrum is continuous over the entire real line and thus includes a tachyonic branch as well

Free energy for parameterized Polyakov loops in SU(2) and SU(3) lattice gauge theory

We present a study of the free energy of parameterized Polyakov loops P in SU(2) and SU(3) lattice gauge theory as a function of the parameters that characterize P. We explore temperatures below and above the deconfinement transition, and for our highest temperatures T > 5 T_c we compare the free energy to perturbative results.Comment: Minor changes. Final version to appear in JHE

An Automated Method for the Detection and Extraction of HI Self-Absorption in High-Resolution 21cm Line Surveys

We describe algorithms that detect 21cm line HI self-absorption (HISA) in large data sets and extract it for analysis. Our search method identifies HISA as spatially and spectrally confined dark HI features that appear as negative residuals after removing larger-scale emission components with a modified CLEAN algorithm. Adjacent HISA volume-pixels (voxels) are grouped into features in (l,b,v) space, and the HI brightness of voxels outside the 3-D feature boundaries is smoothly interpolated to estimate the absorption amplitude and the unabsorbed HI emission brightness. The reliability and completeness of our HISA detection scheme have been tested extensively with model data. We detect most features over a wide range of sizes, linewidths, amplitudes, and background levels, with poor detection only where the absorption brightness temperature amplitude is weak, the absorption scale approaches that of the correlated noise, or the background level is too faint for HISA to be distinguished reliably from emission gaps. False detection rates are very low in all parts of the parameter space except at sizes and amplitudes approaching those of noise fluctuations. Absorption measurement biases introduced by the method are generally small and appear to arise from cases of incomplete HISA detection. This paper is the third in a series examining HISA at high angular resolution. A companion paper (Paper II) uses our HISA search and extraction method to investigate the cold atomic gas distribution in the Canadian Galactic Plane Survey.Comment: 39 pages, including 14 figure pages; to appear in June 10 ApJ, volume 626; figure quality significantly reduced for astro-ph; for full resolution, please see http://www.ras.ucalgary.ca/~gibson/hisa/cgps1_survey