Spatial models for the rational allocation of routinely distributed bed nets to public health facilities in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: In high to moderate malaria transmission areas of Kenya, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are provided free of charge to pregnant women and infants during routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization respectively. Quantities of LLINs distributed to clinics are quantified based on a combination of monthly consumption data and population size of target counties. However, this approach has been shown to lead to stock-outs in targeted clinics. In this study, a novel LLINs need quantification approach for clinics in the routine distribution system was developed. The estimated need was then compared to the actual allocation to identify potential areas of LLIN over- or under-allocation in the high malaria transmission areas of Western Kenya. METHODS: A geocoded database of public health facilities was developed and linked to monthly LLIN allocation. A network analysis approach was implemented using the location of all public clinics and topographic layers to model travel time. Estimated travel time, socio-economic and ANC attendance data were used to model clinic catchment areas and the probability of ANC service use within these catchments. These were used to define the number of catchment population who were likely to use these clinics for the year 2015 equivalent to LLIN need. Actual LLIN allocation was compared with the estimated need. Clinics were then classified based on whether allocation matched with the need, and if not, whether they were over or under-allocated. RESULTS: 888 (70%) public health facilities were allocated 591,880 LLINs in 2015. Approximately 682,377 (93%) pregnant women and infants were likely to have attended an LLIN clinic. 36% of the clinics had more LLIN than was needed (over-allocated) while 43% had received less (under-allocated). Increasing efficiency of allocation by diverting over supply of LLIN to clinics with less stock and fully covering 43 clinics that did not receive nets in 2015 would allow for complete matching of need with distribution. CONCLUSION: The proposed spatial modelling framework presents a rationale for equitable allocation of routine LLINs and could be used for quantification of other maternal and child health commodities applicable in different settings. Western Kenya region received adequate LLINs for routine distribution in line with government of Kenya targets, however, the model shows important inefficiencies in the allocation of the LLINs at clinic level

Choice of a family planning outlet in urban areas: The role of distance and quality of services in Kenya and Uganda

Introduction Quality of care and physical access to health facilities affect facility choice for family planning (FP). These factors may disproportionately impact young contraceptive users. Understanding which components of service quality drive facility choice among contraceptive users of all ages can inform strategies to strengthen FP programming for all potential users of FP. Methods This study uses data from Population Services International's Consumer's Market for Family Planning (CM4FP) project, to examine drivers of facility choice among female FP users. The data collected from female contraceptive users, the outlet where they obtained their contraceptive method, and the complete set of alternative outlets in select urban areas of Kenya and Uganda were used. We use a mixed logit model, with inverse probability weights to correct for selection into categories of nonuse and missing facility data. We consider results separately for youth (18–24) and women aged 25–49 in both countries. Results We find that in both countries and across age groups, users were willing to travel further to public outlets and to outlets offering more methods. Other outlet attributes, including signage, pharmacy, stockouts, and provider training, were important to women in certain age groups or country. Discussion These results shed light on what components of service quality drive outlet choice among young and older users and can inform strategies to strengthen FP programming for all potential users of FP in urban settings

A rapid and reproducible picture of open access health facility data in Africa to support the COVID-19 response

Background: Open data on the locations and services provided by health facilities in some countries have allowed the development of software tools contributing to COVID-19 response. The UN and WHO encourage countries to make health facility location data open, to encourage use and improvement. We provide a summary of open access health facility location data in Africa using re-useable code. We aim to support data analysts developing software tools to address COVID-19 response in individual countries. In Africa there are currently three main sources of such data; 1) direct from national ministries of health, 2) a database for sub-Saharan Africa collated and published by a team from KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme and now hosted by WHO, and 3) The Global Healthsites Mapping Project in collaboration with OpenStreetMap. Methods: We searched for and documented official national facility location data that were openly available. We developed re-useable open-source R code to summarise and visualise facility location data by country from the three sources. This re-useable code is used to provide a web user interface allowing data exploration through maps and plots of facility type. Results: Out of 53 African countries, seven provide an official open facility list that can be downloaded and analysed reproducibly. Considering all three sources, there are over 185,000 health facility locations available for Africa. However, there are differences and overlaps between sources and a lack of data on capacities and service provision. Conclusions: We suggest that these summaries and tools will encourage greater use of existing health facility location data, incentivise further improvements in the provision of those data by national suppliers, and encourage collaboration within wider data communities. The tools are a part of the afrimapr project, actively developing R building blocks to facilitate the use of health data in Africa

Spatial variation and inequities in antenatal care coverage in Kenya, Uganda and mainland Tanzania using model-based geostatistics: a socioeconomic and geographical accessibility lens.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experience the highest levels of maternal mortality and stillbirths due to predominantly avoidable causes. Antenatal care (ANC) can prevent, detect, alleviate, or manage these causes. While eight ANC contacts are now recommended, coverage of the previous minimum of four visits (ANC4+) remains low and inequitable in SSA. METHODS: We modelled ANC4+ coverage and likelihood of attaining district-level target coverage of 70% across three equity stratifiers (household wealth, maternal education, and travel time to the nearest health facility) based on data from malaria indicator surveys in Kenya (2020), Uganda (2018/19) and Tanzania (2017). Geostatistical models were fitted to predict ANC4+ coverage and compute exceedance probability for target coverage. The number of pregnant women without ANC4+ were computed. Prediction was at 3 km spatial resolution and aggregated at national and district -level for sub-national planning. RESULTS: About six in ten women reported ANC4+ visits, meaning that approximately 3 million women in the three countries had  20,000 women having <ANC4+ visits were 38%, 1% and 1%, respectively. In many districts, ANC4+ coverage and likelihood of attaining the target coverage was lower among the poor, uneducated and those geographically marginalized from healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: These findings will be invaluable to policymakers for annual appropriations of resources as part of efforts to reduce maternal deaths and stillbirths

Phase II trial of standard versus increased transfusion volume in Ugandan children with acute severe anemia.

BACKGROUND: Severe anemia (SA, hemoglobin 6 g/dl: primary outcome) and 28-day survival. RESULTS: Median admission hemoglobin was 4.2 g/dl (IQR 3.1 to 4.9). Initial volume received followed the randomization strategy in 155 (97%) patients. By 24-hours, 70 (90%) children in the Tx30 arm had corrected SA compared to 61 (74%) in the Tx20 arm; cause-specific hazard ratio = 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.18, P = 0.01). From admission to day 28 there was a greater hemoglobin increase from enrollment in Tx30 (global P <0.0001). Serious adverse events included one non-fatal allergic reaction and one death in the Tx30 arm. There were six deaths in the Tx20 arm (P = 0.12); three deaths were adjudicated as possibly related to transfusion, but none secondary to volume overload. CONCLUSION: A higher initial transfusion volume prescribed at hospital admission was safe and resulted in an accelerated hematological recovery in Ugandan children with SA. Future testing in a large, pragmatic clinical trial to establish the effect on short and longer-term survival is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.Gov identifier: NCT01461590 registered 26 October 2011

Analysis of the Breast Cancer Journey in Namibia.

IMPORTANCE: Breast cancer (BC) is the leading cancer among women in Namibia. Examining the BC journey in this multiracial country where inequalities remain large is needed to inform effective interventions to reduce BC mortality. OBJECTIVE: To describe the entire BC journey of Namibian women by race, utilizing the World Health Organization Global Breast Cancer Initiative (GBCI) framework. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study used the Namibian subset of the African Breast Cancer-Disparities in Outcomes prospective cohort. Participants were all Namibian residents with confirmed incident BC who presented at the main national public oncology center of the Windhoek Central Hospital (WCH). Follow-up started from recruitment (September 8, 2014, to October 5, 2016) and ended up to 3 years after diagnosis (December 13, 2014, to September 27, 2019). Data analysis was conducted from June 2022 to August 2023. EXPOSURES: Participants' self-reported ethnicities were aggregated into 3 population groups: Black, mixed ancestry, and White. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Three-year overall survival (OS) was examined using Cox models, and summary statistics were used to describe women's BC journey, including GBCI pillar key performance indicators: (1) early stage (TNM I or II) diagnosis (population benchmark ≥60%), (2) prompt diagnosis, ie, 60 days or less to first health care practitioner visit (population benchmark 100%), and (3) completion of recommended multimodal treatment (MT, ie, surgery plus chemotherapy) (population benchmark ≥80%). RESULTS: Of 405 women, there were 300 (74%) Black (mean [SD] age, 53 [15] years), 49 (12%) mixed ancestry (mean [SD] age, 53 [7] years), and 56 (14%) White (mean [SD] age, 59 [12] years) patients. Three-year OS was lowest in Black women (60% [95% CI, 54%-66%]; mixed ancestry: 80% [95% CI, 65%-89%]; White: 89% [95% CI, 77%-95%]), who had lower prevalence of early stage diagnosis (Black: 37% [95% CI, 31%-42%]; mixed ancestry and White: 75% [95% CI, 66%-83%]) and timely diagnosis (Black: 60% [95% CI, 54%-66%]; mixed ancestry and White: 77% [95% CI, 69%-85%]), while MT completion (Black: 53% [95% CI, 46%-59%]; mixed ancestry and White: 63% [95% CI, 50%-73%]) was low in all women. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study of 405 Namibian residents with BC, marked racial disparities in survival were paralleled by inequities all along the BC journey. To improve BC survival, interventions are needed to promote earlier diagnosis in Black Namibian women and to increase MT initiation and completion in all women

Developing policy-ready digital dashboards of geospatial access to emergency obstetric care: a survey of policymakers and researchers in sub-Saharan Africa

Background Dashboards are increasingly being used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to support health policymaking and governance. However, their use has been mostly limited to routine care, not emergency services like emergency obstetric care (EmOC). To ensure a fit-for-purpose dashboard, we conducted an online survey with policymakers and researchers to understand key considerations needed for developing a policy-ready dashboard of geospatial access to EmOC in SSA. Methods Questionnaires targeting both stakeholder groups were pre-tested and disseminated in English, French, and Portuguese across SSA. We collected data on participants’ awareness of concern areas for geographic accessibility of EmOC and existing technological resources used for planning of EmOC services, the dynamic dashboard features preferences, and the dashboard's potential to tackle lack of geographic access to EmOC. Questions were asked as multiple-choice, Likert-scale, or open-ended. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise findings using frequencies or proportions. Free-text responses were recoded into themes where applicable. Results Among the 206 participants (88 policymakers and 118 researchers), 90% reported that rural areas and 23% that urban areas in their countries were affected by issues of geographic accessibility to EmOC. Five percent of policymakers and 38% of researchers were aware of the use of maps of EmOC facilities to guide planning of EmOC facility location. Regarding dashboard design, most visual components such as location of EmOC facilities had almost universal desirability; however, there were some exceptions. Nearly 70% of policymakers considered the socio-economic status of the population and households relevant to the dashboard. The desirability for a heatmap showing travel time to care was lower among policymakers (53%) than researchers (72%). Nearly 90% of participants considered three to four data updates per year or less frequent updates adequate for the dashboard. The potential usability of a dynamic dashboard was high amongst both policymakers (60%) and researchers (82%). Conclusion This study provides key considerations for developing a policy-ready dashboard for EmOC geographical accessibility in SSA. Efforts should now be targeted at establishing robust estimation of geographical accessibility metrics, integrated with existing health system data, and developing and maintaining the dashboard with up-to-date data to maximise impact in these settings

Application of GIS in public health practice: a consortium’s approach to tackling travel delays in obstetric emergencies in urban areas

Geographic Information System (GIS) has become an effective and reliable tool for researchers, policymakers, and decision-makers to map health outcomes and inform targeted planning, evaluation, and monitoring. With the advent of big data-enabled GIS, researchers can now identify disparities and spatial inequalities in health at more granular levels, enabling them to provide more accurate and robust services and products for healthcare. This paper aims to showcase the progress of the On Tackling In-transit Delays for Mothers in Emergency (OnTIME) project, which is a unique collaborative effort between academia, policymakers, and industrial partners. The paper demonstrates how the limitations of traditional spatial accessibility models and data gaps have been overcome by combining GIS and big data to map the geographic accessibility and coverage of health facilities capable of providing emergency obstetric care (EmOC) in conurbations in Africa. The OnTIME project employs various GIS technologies and concepts, such as big spatial data, spatial databases, and public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS). We provide an overview of these concepts in relation to the OnTIME project to demonstrate the application of GIS in public health practice

A geospatial database of close-to-reality travel times to obstetric emergency care in 15 Nigerian conurbations

Travel time estimation accounting for on-the-ground realities between the location where a need for emergency obstetric care (EmOC) arises and the health facility capable of providing EmOC is essential for improving pregnancy outcomes. Current understanding of travel time to care is inadequate in many urban areas of Africa, where short distances obscure long travel times and travel times can vary by time of day and road conditions. Here, we describe a database of travel times to comprehensive EmOC facilities in the 15 most populated extended urban areas of Nigeria. The travel times from cells of approximately 0.6 × 0.6 km to facilities were derived from Google Maps Platform’s internal Directions Application Programming Interface, which incorporates traffic considerations to provide closer-to-reality travel time estimates. Computations were done to the first, second and third nearest public or private facilities. Travel time for eight traffic scenarios (including peak and non-peak periods) and number of facilities within specific time thresholds were estimated. The database offers a plethora of opportunities for research and planning towards improving EmOC accessibility