Dryad data Harborne et al Oikos OIK-02602

The spreadsheet contains three worksheets. The first two sheets provide the raw field data that was input into the linear mixed-effects models to generate Table 1 and 2 and Figs 2 and 3. Variables are separated into explanatory and response variables, and the labels are self-explanatory. Collection methods are described in the paper. The third sheet provides the outputs of the simulation model that was plotted to create Fig 4. Model design and parameterisation are described in the paper

Diagram showing the overall methods used.

<p>(a) In each location, sea surface temperature time series are extracted and (b) the total amount of DHWs per bleaching event is calculated in each site. These values are (c) tabulated, (d) transformed into percentiles, and then (e) the average and standard deviation is calculated and plotted. This way the sites can be separated according to the intensity of acute thermal stress (weak or severe) and its variability (recurrent or not). Additionally, in each location, (f) the rate of change in temperature is quantified from the time series, (g) tabulated, (h) transformed into percentiles and (i) divided in terciles. (j) These two classifications are then incorporated into one final classification scheme.</p

Temperature metrics extracted from each weekly time-series of sea surface temperature.

<p>(a) Total DHWs per bleaching year; (b) rate of increase in temperature.</p

Comparison of methods available to prioritize areas for conservation in a climate change context.

<p>Contrasts in terms of the source of the data used (blue ring), the temporal coverage of the analyses (green ring) and the type of areas targeted for protection (red ring).</p

Spatial arrangement of thermal regimes in Honduras.

<p>Classification of extreme categories following the colour scheme in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0110634#pone-0110634-g003" target="_blank">Figure 3j</a> with areas with high rate of warming are depicted in black. Unclassified areas are depicted in white. Inset shows average vs. standard deviation percentiles of thermal anomalies in four Caribbean-wide bleaching events (1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008) in reef habitats in Honduras.</p

Temperature patterns in reef areas inside the Honduran EEZ.

<p>(a) Average acute thermal stress; (b) variability in acute thermal stress; and (c) rate of warming.</p

Appendix D. All simulation results.

All simulation results

Appendix C. Determining hurricane impact to coral cover.

Determining hurricane impact to coral cover

Appendix A. Parameterization of K(M + T, R).

Parameterization of K(M + T, R)

Results of SIMPER analysis for nursery species, showing which species best explained differences in fish community between sites close to vs. isolated from nurseries (average dissimilarity = 53.2).

<p>Results of SIMPER analysis for nursery species, showing which species best explained differences in fish community between sites close to vs. isolated from nurseries (average dissimilarity = 53.2).</p