Climate Prediction: The Limits of Ocean Models

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).We identify three major areas of ignorance which limit predictability in current ocean GCMs. One is the very crude representation of subgrid-scale mixing processes. These processes are parameterized with coefficients whose values and variations in space and time are poorly known. A second problem derives from the fact that ocean models generally contain multiple equilibria and bifurcations, but there is no agreement as to where the current ocean sits with respect to the bifurcations. A third problem arises from the fact that ocean circulations are highly nonlinear, but only weakly dissipative, and therefore are potentially chaotic. The few studies that have looked at this kind of behavior have not answered fundamental questions, such as what are the major sources of error growth in model projections, and how large is the chaotic behavior relative to realistic changes in climate forcings. Advances in computers will help alleviate some of these problems, for example by making it more practical to explore to what extent the evolution of the oceans is chaotic. However models will have to rely on parameterizations of key small-scale processes such as diapycnal mixing for a long time. To make more immediate progress here requires the development of physically based prognostic parameterizations and coupling the mixing to its energy sources. Another possibly fruitful area of investigation is the use of paleoclimate data on changes in the ocean circulation to constrain more tightly the stability characteristics of the ocean circulation

Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean are quantified by using the probability distributions derived from observed 20th century temperature changes. The impact on climate change projections of using the smallest and largest estimates of 20th century deep ocean warming is explored. The impact is large in the case of global mean thermosteric sea level rise. In the MIT reference ("business as usual") scenario the median rise by 2100 is 27 and 43 cm in the respective cases. The impact on increases in global mean surface air temperature is more modest, 4.9 C and 3.9 C in the two respective cases, because of the correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake required by 20th century surface and upper air temperature changes. The results are also compared with the projections made by the IPCC AR4's multi-model ensemble for several of the SRES scenarios. The multi-model projections are more consistent with the MIT projections based on the largest estimate of ocean warming. However the range for the rate of heat uptake by the ocean suggested by the lowest estimate of ocean warming is more consistent with the range suggested by the 20th century changes in surface and upper air temperatures, combined with expert prior for climate sensitivity.This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Dept. of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Improvement in Renal Function and Reduction in Serum Uric Acid with Intensive Statin Therapy in Older Patients: A Post Hoc Analysis of the SAGE Trial.

BackgroundImprovement in renal function and decreases in serum uric acid (SUA) have been reported following prolonged high-intensity statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy. This post hoc analysis of the SAGE trial examined the effect of intensive versus less intensive statin therapy on renal function, safety, and laboratory parameters, including SUA, in elderly coronary artery disease (CAD) patients (65-85 years) with or without chronic kidney disease (CKD).MethodsPatients were randomized to atorvastatin 80 mg/day or pravastatin 40 mg/day and treated for 12 months. Patients were stratified using Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) in CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and non-CKD populations.ResultsOf the 893 patients randomized, 858 had complete renal data and 418 of 858 (49%) had CKD (99% Stage 3). Over 12 months, eGFR increased with atorvastatin and remained stable with pravastatin (+2.38 vs. +0.18 mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively; p < 0.0001). MDRD eGFR improved significantly in both CKD treatment arms; however, the increased eGFR in patients without CKD was significantly greater with atorvastatin (+2.08 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) than with pravastatin (-1.04 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Modest reductions in SUA were observed in both treatment arms, but a greater fall occurred with atorvastatin than with pravastatin (-0.52 vs. -0.09 mg/dL, p < 0.0001). Change in SUA correlated negatively with changes in eGFR and positively with changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Reports of myalgia were rare (3.6% CKD; 5.7% non-CKD), and there were no episodes of rhabdomyolysis. Elevated serum alanine and aspartate transaminase to >3 times the upper limit of normal occurred in 4.4% of atorvastatin- and 0.2% of pravastatin-treated patients.ConclusionIntensive management of dyslipidemia in older patients with stable coronary heart disease may have beneficial effects on renal function and SUA

Box modeling of the Eastern Mediterranean sea

In ∼1990 a new source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was found in the southern part of the Aegean sea. Till then, the only source of deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean was in the Adriatic sea; the rate of the deep water formation of the new Aegean source is 1 Sv, three times larger than the Adriatic source. We develop a simple three-box model to study the stability of the thermohaline circulation of the Eastern Mediterranean sea. The three boxes represent the Adriatic sea, Aegean sea, and the Ionian seas. The boxes exchange heat and salinity and may be described by a set of nonlinear differential equations. We analyze these equations and find that the system may have one, two, or four stable flux states. We conjecture that the change in the deep water formation in the Eastern Mediterranean sea is attributed to a switch between the different states on the thermohaline circulation; this switch may result from decreased temperature and/or increased salinity over the Aegean sea

Curvature suppresses the Rayleigh-Taylor instability

The dynamics of a thin liquid film on the underside of a curved cylindrical substrate is studied. The evolution of the liquid layer is investigated as the film thickness and the radius of curvature of the substrate are varied. A dimensionless parameter (a modified Bond number) that incorporates both geometric parameters, gravity, and surface tension is identified, and allows the observations to be classified according to three different flow regimes: stable films, films with transient growth of perturbations followed by decay, and unstable films. Experiments and theory confirm that, below a critical value of the Bond number, curvature of the substrate suppresses the Rayleigh-Taylor instability

Constraining Climate Model Parameters from Observed 20th Century Changes

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We present revised probability density functions for climate model parameters (effective climate sensitivity, the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the strength of the net aerosol forcing) that are based on climate change observations from the 20th century. First, we compare observed changes in surface, upper-air, and deep-ocean temperature changes against simulations of 20th century climate in which the climate model parameters were systematically varied. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.0 to 5.0 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s has 90% bounds of -0.70 to -0.27 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake corresponds to an effective diffusivity, Kv, with a 90% range of 0.04 to 4.1 cm2/s. Second, we estimate the effective climate sensitivity and rate of deep-ocean heat uptake for 11 of the IPCC AR4 AOGCMs. By comparing against the acceptable combinations inferred by the observations, we conclude that the rate of deep-ocean heat uptake for the majority of AOGCMs lie above the observationally based median value. This implies a bias in the predictions inferred from the IPCC models alone. This bias can be seen in the range of transient climate response from the AOGCMs as compared to that from the observational constraints.This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Dept. of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.4 to 9.2 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s decade shifted towards positive values to compensate for the now included volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.7 to -0.16 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is also reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.25 to 7.3 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.This work was supported in part by the NOAA Climate Change Data and Detection Program with support from DOE, the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT, and the Office of Science (BER) DOE Grant No.DE-FG02-93ER61677

A Three-Dimensional Ocean-Seaice-Carbon Cycle Model and its Coupling to a Two-Dimensional Atmospheric Model: Uses in Climate Change Studies

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).We describe the coupling of a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, with explicit thermodynamic seaice and ocean carbon cycle representations, to a two-dimensional atmospheric/land model. This coupled system has been developed as an efficient and flexible tool with which to investigate future climate change scenarios. The setup is sufficiently fast for large ensemble simulations that address uncertainties in future climate modeling. However, the ocean component is detailed enough to provide a tool for looking at the mechanisms and feedbacks that are essential for understanding the future changes in the ocean system. Here we show results from a single example simulation: a spin-up to pre-industrial steady state, changes to ocean physical and biogeochemical states for the 20th century (where changes in greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations are taken from observations) and predictions of further changes for the 21st century in response to increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. We plan, in future studies to use this model to investigate processes important to the heat uptake of the oceans, changes to the ocean circulation and mechanisms of carbon uptake and how these will change in future climate scenarios