Understanding the cost of change Function: A basis for using an effective small step change strategy

This paper develops the cost of change function under the Continuous Improvement (CI) paradigm advocated by quality gurus such as Deming, Taguchi, and Shingo. CI is considered to be focusing on "frame bending" or minor changes while Organizational Change (OC) is considered to be focusing on "frame breaking " or major changes. The cost of change function is modified to be a discrete function incorporating a "monitoring" cost component and a "doing" cost element, which leads to a better understanding of the multiple tradeoffs: a) between the number of smaller steps to be taken to achieve the desired or planned change and the total cost of change, and b) between the total cost of change and the time needed to achieve the desired change. It is proposed to seek validation of the modified cost of change function by interviewing senior management personnel, who have project management and/or change management experience, such as managing six-sigma projects

The Rate of Return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program

This paper estimates the rate of return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program, an early intervention program targeted toward disadvantaged African-American youth. Estimates of the rate of return to the Perry program are widely cited to support the claim of substantial economic benefits from preschool education programs. Previous studies of the rate of return to this program ignore the compromises that occurred in the randomization protocol. They do not report standard errors. The rates of return estimated in this paper account for these factors. We conduct an extensive analysis of sensitivity to alternative plausible assumptions. Estimated social rates of return generally fall between 7-10 percent, with most estimates substantially lower than those previously reported in the literature. However, returns are generally statistically significantly different from zero for both males and females and are above the historical return on equity. Estimated benefit-to-cost ratios support this conclusion.early childhood intervention programs, compromised randomization, Perry Preschool Program, standard errors, cost-benefit analysis, rate of return, deadweight costs

The Rate of Return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program

This paper estimates the rate of return to the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program, an early intervention program targeted toward disadvantaged African-American youth. Estimates of the rate of return to the Perry program are widely cited to support the claim of substantial economic benefits from preschool education programs. Previous studies of the rate of return to this program ignore the compromises that occurred in the randomization protocol. They do not report standard errors. The rates of return estimated in this paper account for these factors. We conduct an extensive analysis of sensitivity to alternative plausible assumptions. Estimated social rates of return generally fall between 7–10 percent, with most estimates substantially lower than those previously reported in the literature. However, returns are generally statistically significantly different from zero for both males and females and are above the historical return on equity. Estimated benefit-to-cost ratios support this conclusion.rate of return, cost-benefit analysis, standard errors, Perry Preschool Program, compromised randomization, early childhood intervention programs, deadweight costs

Analyzing Social Experiments as Implemented: A Reexamination of the Evidence From the HighScope Perry Preschool Program

Social experiments are powerful sources of information about the effectiveness of interventions. In practice, initial randomization plans are almost always compromised. Multiple hypotheses are frequently tested. "Signicant" effects are often reported with p-values that do not account for preliminary screening from a large candidate pool of possible effects. This paper develops tools for analyzing data from experiments as they are actually implemented. We apply these tools to analyze the influential HighScope Perry Preschool Program. The Perry program was a social experiment that provided preschool education and home visits to disadvantaged children during their preschool years. It was evaluated by the method of random assignment. Both treatments and controls have been followed from age 3 through age 40. Previous analyses of the Perry data assume that the planned randomization protocol was implemented. In fact, as in many social experiments, the intended randomization protocol was compromised. Accounting for compromised randomization, multiple-hypothesis testing, and small sample sizes, we find statistically significant and economically important program effects for both males and females. We also examine the representativeness of the Perry study.early childhood intervention; compromised randomization; social experiment; multiple-hypothesis testing

Learning Deep Similarity Metric for 3D MR-TRUS Registration

Purpose: The fusion of transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) and magnetic resonance (MR) images for guiding targeted prostate biopsy has significantly improved the biopsy yield of aggressive cancers. A key component of MR-TRUS fusion is image registration. However, it is very challenging to obtain a robust automatic MR-TRUS registration due to the large appearance difference between the two imaging modalities. The work presented in this paper aims to tackle this problem by addressing two challenges: (i) the definition of a suitable similarity metric and (ii) the determination of a suitable optimization strategy. Methods: This work proposes the use of a deep convolutional neural network to learn a similarity metric for MR-TRUS registration. We also use a composite optimization strategy that explores the solution space in order to search for a suitable initialization for the second-order optimization of the learned metric. Further, a multi-pass approach is used in order to smooth the metric for optimization. Results: The learned similarity metric outperforms the classical mutual information and also the state-of-the-art MIND feature based methods. The results indicate that the overall registration framework has a large capture range. The proposed deep similarity metric based approach obtained a mean TRE of 3.86mm (with an initial TRE of 16mm) for this challenging problem. Conclusion: A similarity metric that is learned using a deep neural network can be used to assess the quality of any given image registration and can be used in conjunction with the aforementioned optimization framework to perform automatic registration that is robust to poor initialization.Comment: To appear on IJCAR

Cosmology without inflation

We propose a new cosmological paradigm in which our observed expanding phase is originated from an initially large contracting Universe that subsequently experienced a bounce. This category of models, being geodesically complete, is non-singular and horizon-free, and can be made to prevent any relevant scale to ever have been smaller than the Planck length. In this scenario, one can find new ways to solve the standard cosmological puzzles. One can also obtain scale invariant spectra for both scalar and tensor perturbations: this will be the case, for instance, if the contracting Universe is dust-dominated at the time at which large wavelength perturbations get larger than the curvature scale. We present a particular example based on a dust fluid classically contracting model, where a bounce occurs due to quantum effects, in which these features are explicit.Comment: 8 pages, no figur

Perturbations in Bouncing Cosmological Models

I describe the features and general properties of bouncing models and the evolution of cosmological perturbations on such backgrounds. I will outline possible observational consequences of the existence of a bounce in the primordial Universe and I will make a comparison of these models with standard long inflationary scenarios.Comment: 9 pages, no figure

A non inflationary model with scale invariant cosmological perturbations

We show that a contracting universe which bounces due to quantum cosmological effects and connects to the hot big-bang expansion phase, can produce an almost scale invariant spectrum of perturbations provided the perturbations are produced during an almost matter dominated era in the contraction phase. This is achieved using Bohmian solutions of the canonical Wheeler-de Witt equation, thus treating both the background and the perturbations in a fully quantum manner. We find a very slightly blue spectrum ($n_{_\mathrm{S}}-1>0$). Taking into account the spectral index constraint as well as the CMB normalization measure yields an equation of state that should be less than $\omega\lesssim 8\times 10^{-4}$, implying $n_{_\mathrm{S}}-1 \sim \mathcal{O}(10^{-4})$, and that the characteristic size of the Universe at the bounce is $L_0 \sim 10^3 \ell_\mathrm{Planck}$, a region where one expects that the Wheeler-DeWitt equation should be valid without being spoiled by string or loop quantum gravity effects.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Using individual tracking data to validate the predictions of species distribution models

The authors would like to thank the College of Life Sciences of Aberdeen University and Marine Scotland Science which funded CP's PhD project. Skate tagging experiments were undertaken as part of Scottish Government project SP004. We thank Ian Burrett for help in catching the fish and the other fishermen and anglers who returned tags. We thank José Manuel Gonzalez-Irusta for extracting and making available the environmental layers used as environmental covariates in the environmental suitability modelling procedure. We also thank Jason Matthiopoulos for insightful suggestions on habitat utilization metrics as well as Stephen C.F. Palmer, and three anonymous reviewers for useful suggestions to improve the clarity and quality of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPostprintPostprintPostprintPostprintPostprin

Tensor Perturbations in Quantum Cosmological Backgrounds

In the description of the dynamics of tensor perturbations on a homogeneous and isotropic background cosmological model, it is well known that a simple Hamiltonian can be obtained if one assumes that the background metric satisfies Einstein classical field equations. This makes it possible to analyze the quantum evolution of the perturbations since their dynamics depends only on this classical background. In this paper, we show that this simple Hamiltonian can also be obtained from the Einstein-Hilbert lagrangian without making use of any assumption about the dynamics of the background metric. In particular, it can be used in situations where the background metric is also quantized, hence providing a substantial simplification over the direct approach originally developed by Halliwell and Hawking.Comment: 24 pages, JHEP forma