Potential for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to inform Pacific salmon management

AbstractEcology is often governed by nonlinear dynamics. Nonlinear ecological relationships can include thresholds—incremental changes in drivers that provoke disproportionately large ecological responses. Among the species that experience nonlinear and threshold dynamics are Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). These culturally, ecologically, and economically significant fishes are in many places declining and management focal points. Often, managers can influence or react to ecological conditions that salmon experience, suggesting that nonlinearities, especially thresholds, may provide opportunities to inform decisions. However, nonlinear dynamics are not always invoked in management decisions involving salmon. Here, we review reported nonlinearities and thresholds in salmon ecology, describe potential applications that scientists and managers could develop to leverage nonlinear dynamics, and offer a path toward decisions that account for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to improve salmon outcomes. It appears that nonlinear dynamics are not uncommon in salmon ecology and that many management arenas may potentially leverage them to enable more effective or efficient decisions. Indeed, decisions guided by nonlinearities and thresholds may be particularly desirable considering salmon management arenas are often characterized by limited resources and mounting ecological stressors, practical constraints, and conservation challenges. More broadly, many salmon systems are data‐rich and there are an extensive range of ecological contexts in which salmon are sensitive to anthropogenic decisions. Approaches developed to leverage nonlinearities in salmon ecology may serve as examples that may inform analogous approaches in other systems and taxa

Lessons from Elwha Ecosystem Restoration: Integrating science, policy, and management

After decades of debate, planning, and environmental impact studies, the largest planned dam removal project in history was conducted on the Elwha River in Washington State, USA, from 2011 to 2014. Because this was such a unique and unprecedented project, the planning, implementation, and monitoring has occurred over 30 years and required diverse expertise across multiple stakeholders. This knowledge portfolio required that individuals and organizations with different missions collaborate effectively to ensure a successful project. The story of this river, with rugged headwaters, protected wilderness, legendary and culturally important salmon runs, and two hydroelectric dams whose placement marshaled wholesale socioeconomic and ecological changes, has become an iconic saga of change, perseverance and renewal. The two dams blocked fish migrations and disrupted sediment transport for a century, disrupting the ecological structure and function of the Elwha River. Removal of the 64-m and 32-m tall dams and the release of a large portion of the 21 million cubic meters of stored reservoir sediment, has provided a living laboratory to study the patterns, processes and outcomes of dam removal across freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystem boundaries from multiple scientific perspectives. This collaborative multidisciplinary approach has allowed us to improve our understanding of ecosystem responses and linkages while making the Elwha River one of the best studied dam removal projects

Dam removal enables diverse juvenile life histories to emerge in threatened salmonids repopulating a heterogeneous landscape

Human stressors block, eliminate, and simplify habitat mosaics, eroding landscapes’ life history diversity and thus biological resilience. One goal of restoration is to alleviate human stressors that suppress life history diversity, but life history responses to these efforts are still coming into focus. Here, we report life history diversity emerging in threatened salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) repopulating the recently undammed Elwha River (WA, United States) in adjacent but environmentally distinct tributaries. The ~20 km tributaries entered the Elwha River <1 km apart, but one had a colder stream temperature regime and swifter waters due to its high, snow-dominated elevation and steep valley gradient (~3%), while the other had a warmer stream temperature regime and slower waters because it drained a lake, was at lower elevation, and had a lower stream gradient (~1.5%). Following the 2012 removal of Elwha Dam, the tributaries’ salmonids generally became more abundant and expressed diverse life histories within and among species. The warmer, low-gradient tributary produced more age-1+ coho salmon while the colder, steeper tributary produced a notably high abundance of steelhead smolts in 2020. Additionally, salmonids exiting the warmer tributary were older and possibly larger for their age class, emigrated ~25 days earlier, and included age-0 Chinook salmon that were larger. Also, assemblage composition varied among years, with the most abundant species shifting between Chinook salmon and coho salmon, while steelhead abundances generally increased but were patchy. These patterns are consistent with a newly accessible, heterogeneous landscape generating life history diversity against the backdrop of patchy recruitment as salmonids—some with considerable hatchery-origin ancestry—repopulate an extirpated landscape. Overall, dam removal appears to have promoted life history diversity, which may bolster resilience during an era of rapid environmental change and portend positive outcomes for upcoming dam removals with similar goals

Bifurcations in annular electroconvection with an imposed shear

We report an experimental study of the primary bifurcation in electrically-driven convection in a freely suspended film. A weakly conducting, submicron thick smectic liquid crystal film was supported by concentric circular electrodes. It electroconvected when a sufficiently large voltage $V$ was applied between its inner and outer edges. The film could sustain rapid flows and yet remain strictly two-dimensional. By rotation of the inner electrode, a circular Couette shear could be independently imposed. The control parameters were a dimensionless number ${\cal R}$, analogous to the Rayleigh number, which is $\propto V^2$ and the Reynolds number ${\cal R}e$ of the azimuthal shear flow. The geometrical and material properties of the film were characterized by the radius ratio $\alpha$, and a Prandtl-like number ${\cal P}$. Using measurements of current-voltage characteristics of a large number of films, we examined the onset of electroconvection over a broad range of $\alpha$, ${\cal P}$ and ${\cal R}e$. We compared this data quantitatively to the results of linear stability theory. This could be done with essentially no adjustable parameters. The current-voltage data above onset were then used to infer the amplitude of electroconvection in the weakly nonlinear regime by fitting them to a steady-state amplitude equation of the Landau form. We show how the primary bifurcation can be tuned between supercritical and subcritical by changing $\alpha$ and ${\cal R}e$.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E. Minor changes after refereeing. See also http://mobydick.physics.utoronto.c

Planning, implementation, and monitoring Pacific salmonid recovery following the removal of two hydroelectric dams on Washington\u27s Elwha River

The removal of Elwha and Glines Canyon dams on the Elwha River is the largest existing dam removal project in the United States. Project planning, implementation, and monitoring have occurred over 30 years and has required diverse technical expertise. Because of the size and nature of the project—two high-head dams releasing massive amounts of sediment into the river, estuary, and nearshore ecosystem—the project was unprecedented and required a great deal of technical expertise to plan, execute, and monitor. The relative success of this project required effective collaboration among individuals and organizations with varying missions. Individuals with diverse technical expertise (i.e., engineering, geomorphology, hydrology, botany, wildlife, fisheries, stream ecology, ecological monitoring) have successfully collaborated to develop several technical plans ensuring dam removal was completed, while at the same time protecting a city water supply, infrastructure, and listed and unlisted salmonids in the basin. This collaboration has continued following dam removal through the implementation of a monitoring and adaptive management plan. Our monitoring strategy often uses multiple scientific methods to evaluate metrics or performance indicators to create multiple lines of evidence, reduce uncertainty, and ensure data availability. Employing such diverse methods would not have been possible without multidisciplinary and multiagency collaboration. Collaboration and extensive monitoring has allowed project partners to identify potential barriers, assess the rate and extent of recolonization, estimate abundance, life history attributes, and productivity. This collaborative multidisciplinary approach has allowed us to monitor salmonid recovery, while also improving our understanding of ecosystem response and linkages. This has resulted in the Elwha River being one of the best studied dam removal projects in history

Modeling timing and size of juvenile Chinook salmon out-migrants at three Elwha River rotary screw traps: a window into early life history post dam removal

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations express diverse early life history pathways that increase habitat utilization and demographic resiliency. Extensive anthropogenic alterations to freshwater habitats along with hatchery and harvest impacts have led to marked reductions in early life history diversity across much of the species’ range. The recent removal of two Elwha River dams between 2011 and 2014 restored access to over 90% of the available habitat that had been inaccessible to Chinook salmon since the early 1900s. This provided an opportunity to investigate how renewed access to this habitat might affect life history diversity. As exotherms, egg-to-fry development, juvenile growth, and movement are influenced by water temperatures. We used spatially and temporally explicit Elwha River water temperature and Chinook salmon spawning location data, in conjunction with spawn timing, emergence, growth, and movement models, to predict observed timing and sizes of juvenile Chinook salmon captured in three rotary screw traps in the mainstem and two tributaries during four trap years. This effort allowed us to test hypotheses regarding Elwha River Chinook salmon early life history, identify potential problems with the data, and predict how emergence and growth would change with increased spawning in the upper watershed. Predicted Chinook salmon emergence timing and predicted dates that juveniles reached 65 mm differed by as much as 2 months for different river locations due to large differences in thermal regimes longitudinally in the mainstem and between tributaries. For 10 out of the 12 trap–year combinations, the model was able to replicate important characteristics of the out-migrant timing and length data collected at the three traps. However, in most cases, there were many plausible parameter combinations that performed well, and in some cases, the model predictions and observations differed. Potential problems with the data and model assumptions were identified as partial explanations for differences and provide avenues for future work. We show that juvenile out-migrant data combined with mechanistic models can improve our understanding of how differences in temperature, spawning extent, and spawn timing affect the emergence, growth, and movement of juvenile fish across diverse riverine habitats

What are we measuring? A critique of range of motion methods currently in use for Dupuytren's disease and recommendations for practice

Background: Range of motion is the most frequently reported measure used in practice to evaluate outcomes. A goniometer is the most reliable tool to assess range of motion yet, the lack of consistency in reporting prevents comparison between studies. The aim of this study is to identify how range of motion is currently assessed and reported in Dupuytren’s disease literature. Following analysis recommendations for practice will be made to enable consistency in future studies for comparability. This paper highlights the variation in range of motion reporting in Dupuytren’s disease. Methods: A Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes and Study design format was used for the search strategy and search terms. Surgery, needle fasciotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease in adults were included if outcomes were monitored using range of motion to record change. A literature search was performed in May 2013 using subject heading and free-text terms to also capture electronic publications ahead of print. In total 638 publications were identified and following screening 90 articles met the inclusion criteria. Data was extracted and entered onto a spreadsheet for analysis. A thematic analysis was carried out to establish any duplication, resulting in the final range of motion measures identified. Results: Range of motion measurement lacked clarity, with goniometry reportedly used in only 43 of the 90 studies, 16 stated the use of a range of motion protocol. A total of 24 different descriptors were identified describing range of motion in the 90 studies. While some studies reported active range of motion, others reported passive or were unclear. Eight of the 24 categories were identified through thematic analysis as possibly describing the same measure, ‘lack of joint extension’ and accounted for the most frequently used. Conclusions: Published studies lacked clarity in reporting range of motion, preventing data comparison and meta-analysis. Percentage change lacks context and without access to raw data, does not allow direct comparison of baseline characteristics. A clear description of what is being measured within each study was required. It is recommended that range of motion measuring and reporting for Dupuytren’s disease requires consistency to address issues that fall into 3 main categories:- Definition of terms Protocol statement Outcome reportin

Optimal functional outcome measures for assessing treatment for Dupuytren's disease: A systematic review and recommendations for future practice

This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2013 Ball et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Background: Dupuytren's disease of the hand is a common condition affecting the palmar fascia, resulting in progressive flexion deformities of the digits and hence limitation of hand function. The optimal treatment remains unclear as outcomes studies have used a variety of measures for assessment. Methods: A literature search was performed for all publications describing surgical treatment, percutaneous needle aponeurotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease where outcomes had been monitored using functional measures. Results: Ninety-one studies met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two studies reported outcomes using patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) ranging from validated questionnaires to self-reported measures for return to work and self-rated disability. The Disability of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) score was the most utilised patient-reported function measure (n=11). Patient satisfaction was reported by eighteen studies but no single method was used consistently. Range of movement was the most frequent physical measure and was reported in all 91 studies. However, the methods of measurement and reporting varied, with seventeen different techniques being used. Other physical measures included grip and pinch strength and sensibility, again with variations in measurement protocols. The mean follow-up time ranged from 2 weeks to 17 years. Conclusions: There is little consistency in the reporting of outcomes for interventions in patients with Dupuytren’s disease, making it impossible to compare the efficacy of different treatment modalities. Although there are limitations to the existing generic patient reported outcomes measures, a combination of these together with a disease-specific questionnaire, and physical measures of active and passive individual joint Range of movement (ROM), grip and sensibility using standardised protocols should be used for future outcomes studies. As Dupuytren’s disease tends to recur following treatment as well as extend to involve other areas of the hand, follow-up times should be standardised and designed to capture both short and long term outcomes

Glacier retreat creating new Pacific salmon habitat in western North America

Glacier retreat poses risks and benefits for species of cultural and economic importance. One example is Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), supporting subsistence harvests, and commercial and recreational fisheries worth billions of dollars annually. Although decreases in summer streamflow and warming freshwater is reducing salmon habitat quality in parts of their range, glacier retreat is creating new streams and lakes that salmon can colonize. However, potential gains in future salmon habitat associated with glacier loss have yet to be quantified across the range of Pacific salmon. Here we project future gains in Pacific salmon freshwater habitat by linking a model of glacier mass change for 315 glaciers, forced by five different Global Climate Models, with a simple model of salmon stream habitat potential throughout the Pacific Mountain ranges of western North America. We project that by the year 2100 glacier retreat will create 6,146 (±1,619) km of new streams accessible for colonization by Pacific salmon, of which 1,930 (±569) km have the potential to be used for spawning and juvenile rearing, representing 0 to 27% gains within the 18 sub-regions we studied. These findings can inform proactive management and conservation of Pacific salmon in this era of rapid climate change.Ye