Long-Term Economic Hardship and Non-Mainstream Voting in Canada

Canadian voting behaviour from 1979 to 2000 is examined by relating long-term economic changes to support for “non-mainstream” parties, defined as parties other than the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives. This long-term perspective is unique, in that standard economic voting research focuses mostly on how short-term economic changes affect support levels for the incumbent. In order to illustrate the effects of long-term economic decline, federal voting results are related with short- and long-term economic data, namely unemployment and labour-force participation rates, all aggregated at the provincial level. The pooled data produces results that confirm the relevance of short-term changes to explain support for the incumbent party, while support for non-mainstream parties is, instead, explained by long-term economic changes

Revisiting Local Campaign Effects: An Experiment Involving Literature Mail Drops in the 2007 Ontario Election

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polls to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate’s partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate’s support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party’s traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status

Long-term economic decline and non-mainstream voting

Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal

Facteurs d’appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes : Une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones

Des études récentes ont fait état d’une progression notable de l’option souverainiste chez les Québécois issus de l’immigration, particulièrement parmi les jeunes (« génération 101 »). Ces résultats ont amené certains à conclure que l’intégration linguistique de ces derniers les sensibilisait davantage à l’option souverainiste et que leur comportement électoral était maintenant devenu pratiquement indifférencié de celui des jeunes francophones. Notre étude, basée sur les données d’un sondage mené en 2006, suggère de nuancer ces conclusions. Nos résultats indiquent en effet que, malgré la hausse de l’appui à la souveraineté observée ces dernières années chez les jeunes allophones, les facteurs motivant leur appui ne sont pas tout à fait les mêmes que chez les francophones. Les jeunes allophones semblent notamment très sensibles aux valeurs associées au fédéralisme canadien, de même qu’aux conséquences économiques de la souveraineté. En ce sens, leur comportement s’apparente davantage à celui des jeunes anglophones qu’à celui des jeunes francophones. Le contraste entre francophones et allophones apparaît encore plus marqué lorsque nous examinons l’appui à une question référendaire plus « dure » faisant référence à l’accession du Québec au statut de « pays ».Recent studies have shown a significant increase in sovereignty support among Quebec immigrants, and particularly among immigrants’ children (“Generation 101”). These observations have led some to conclude that, as a result of linguistic integration, immigrant youths’ political opinions and behaviour have become almost undifferentiated from those of their francophone counterparts. Our study, based on a survey conducted in early 2006, provides a significantly more nuanced picture of the situation. Our results indicate that, even though young allophones may have become more supportive of Quebec sovereignty in recent years, the actual motivations behind their support are not entirely the same as those of young francophones. Young allophones appear to be very sensitive to values associated with Canadian federalism, and to the economic consequences of sovereignty. On these accounts, their behaviour more closely resembles that of young anglophones. Such contrast between francophones and allophones becomes even more striking when we examine answers to a more “hardline” referendum question that refers to Quebec assuming the status of a “country.

The 2007 Provincial Election and Electoral System Referendum in Ontario

Ontario’s general election in Oct. 10, 2007, was unprecedented for several reasons. The election was held on a date fixed by legislation and not one set by the premier or his caucus, something new to Ontario and relatively new to Canadian politics. Turnout declined to 53%, the lowest ever in Ontario history. The incumbent Liberals won a second consecutive majority government, something the party had not achieved since 1937. And finally, the election featured a referendum question that asked voters in Ontario to approve reforms to the electoral system, a proposal that was overwhelmingly rejected. This article explores each of the above-stated elements as they unfolded in the election

Conservative Populism, or Unpopular Liberalism? Review of the 2018 Ontario Provincial Election

Ontario’s general election on June 7, 2018, brought the Progressive Conservative party to government for the first time in the 21st Century. The PCs’ victory over the incumbent Liberals, however, reached this point despite much turmoil. Months before the election the party faced a crisis when its leader, Patrick Brown, resigned amid a scandal. The PC party hastily organized a leadership election that put Doug Ford at the helm, who then led the party to victory. The following election review traces these steps and looks at some dynamics that contributed to both the PC leadership vote and the overall result of the election. The PC leadership election is analyzed, providing evidence that Ford’s rise may reflect some of the populist sentiment that has gripped other democracies. The analysis then turns to the general election, focusing on media coverage and issue salience, particularly as they relate to the party leaders. Survey data are examined to build some explanatory vote-choice models, which shows that voters in the general election appeared less moved by populism than a desire to punish the Liberals

Rural, Suburban and Urban Voters: Dissecting Residence Based Voter Cleavages in Provincial Elections

We explore provincial-level cleavages by drawing on surveys administered during eight elections. More specifically, we examine rural-suburban-urban divisions in regards to party support within Canadian provinces. Our results show a clear division according to place of residence, even after controlling for a host of individual-level characteristics. We argue that recognition of this rural-suburban-urban division is an important and often overlooked aspect of understanding Canadian political preferences and political behaviour more generally

How to Win and Lose an Election: Campaign Dynamics of the 2011 Ontario Election

We review the 2011 Ontario general election, which reduced the incumbent Liberal party to a minority government. We place attention on campaign dynamics and issue salience

Triple Play: The Ontario 2014 General Election

The 2014 general election in Ontario was the third straight time when the opposition Progressive Conservative party was poised to win, only to find itself returned to the opposition benches. Part of the the incumbent Liberal party's victory certainly can be attributed to strategic choices of the party, positioning itself closer to where voters wanted them to be. However, there is also a case to be made that the PCs squandered their chance to form government. The following articles walks through some of the key points of the campaign, and the context within which it was held