Hypertension: Development of a prediction model to adjust self-reported hypertension prevalence at the community level

Abstract Background Accurate estimates of hypertension prevalence are critical for assessment of population health and for planning and implementing prevention and health care programs. While self-reported data is often more economically feasible and readily available compared to clinically measured HBP, these reports may underestimate clinical prevalence to varying degrees. Understanding the accuracy of self-reported data and developing prediction models that correct for underreporting of hypertension in self-reported data can be critical tools in the development of more accurate population level estimates, and in planning population-based interventions to reduce the risk of, or more effectively treat, hypertension. This study examines the accuracy of self-reported survey data in describing prevalence of clinically measured hypertension in two racially and ethnically diverse urban samples, and evaluates a mechanism to correct self-reported data in order to more accurately reflect clinical hypertension prevalence. Methods We analyze data from the Detroit Healthy Environments Partnership (HEP) Survey conducted in 2002 and the National Health and Nutrition Examination (NHANES) 2001–2002 restricted to urban areas and participants 25 years and older. We re-calibrate measures of agreement within the HEP sample drawing upon parameter estimates derived from the NHANES urban sample, and assess the quality of the adjustment proposed within the HEP sample. Results Both self-reported and clinically assessed prevalence of hypertension were higher in the HEP sample (29.7 and 40.1, respectively) compared to the NHANES urban sample (25.7 and 33.8, respectively). In both urban samples, self-reported and clinically assessed prevalence is higher than that reported in the full NHANES sample in the same year (22.9 and 30.4, respectively). Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy between clinical and self-reported hypertension prevalence were ‘moderate to good’ within the HEP sample and ‘good to excellent’ within the NHANES sample. Agreement between clinical and self-reported hypertension prevalence was ‘moderate to good’ within the HEP sample (kappa =0.65; 95% CI = 0.63-0.67), and ‘good to excellent’ within the NHANES sample (kappa = 0.75; 95%CI = 0.73-0.80). Application of a ‘correction’ rule based on prediction models for clinical hypertension using the national sample (NHANES) allowed us to re-calibrate sensitivity and specificity estimates for the HEP sample. The adjusted estimates of hypertension in the HEP sample based on two different correction models, 38.1% and 40.5%, were much closer to the observed hypertension prevalence of 40.1%. Conclusions Application of a simple prediction model derived from national NHANES data to self-reported data from the HEP (Detroit based) sample resulted in estimates that more closely approximated clinically measured hypertension prevalence in this urban community. Similar correction models may be useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of hypertension prevalence in other studies that rely on self-reported hypertension.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112834/1/12913_2011_Article_2187.pd

The predictive ability of the 313 variant–based polygenic risk score for contralateral breast cancer risk prediction in women of European ancestry with a heterozygous BRCA1 or BRCA2 pathogenic variant

Abstract: Purpose: To evaluate the association between a previously published 313 variant–based breast cancer (BC) polygenic risk score (PRS313) and contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, in BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variant heterozygotes. Methods: We included women of European ancestry with a prevalent first primary invasive BC (BRCA1 = 6,591 with 1,402 prevalent CBC cases; BRCA2 = 4,208 with 647 prevalent CBC cases) from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA), a large international retrospective series. Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between overall and ER-specific PRS313 and CBC risk. Results: For BRCA1 heterozygotes the estrogen receptor (ER)-negative PRS313 showed the largest association with CBC risk, hazard ratio (HR) per SD = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.06–1.18), C-index = 0.53; for BRCA2 heterozygotes, this was the ER-positive PRS313, HR = 1.15, 95% CI (1.07–1.25), C-index = 0.57. Adjusting for family history, age at diagnosis, treatment, or pathological characteristics for the first BC did not change association effect sizes. For women developing first BC < age 40 years, the cumulative PRS313 5th and 95th percentile 10-year CBC risks were 22% and 32% for BRCA1 and 13% and 23% for BRCA2 heterozygotes, respectively. Conclusion: The PRS313 can be used to refine individual CBC risks for BRCA1/2 heterozygotes of European ancestry, however the PRS313 needs to be considered in the context of a multifactorial risk model to evaluate whether it might influence clinical decision-making

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p&lt;0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p&lt;0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p&lt;0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP &gt;5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

Dopamine genes and nicotine dependence in treatment-seeking and community smokers.

We utilized a cohort of 828 treatment-seeking self-identified white cigarette smokers (50% female) to rank candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND), a measure of nicotine dependence which assesses quantity of cigarettes smoked and time- and place-dependent characteristics of the respondent's smoking behavior. A total of 1123 SNPs at 55 autosomal candidate genes, nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and genes involved in dopaminergic function, were tested for association to baseline FTND scores adjusted for age, depression, education, sex, and study site. SNP P-values were adjusted for the number of transmission models, the number of SNPs tested per candidate gene, and their intragenic correlation. DRD2, SLC6A3, and NR4A2 SNPs with adjusted P-values &lt;0.10 were considered sufficiently noteworthy to justify further genetic, bioinformatic, and literature analyses. Each independent signal among the top-ranked SNPs accounted for approximately 1% of the FTND variance in this sample. The DRD2 SNP appears to represent a novel association with nicotine dependence. The SLC6A3 SNPs have previously been shown to be associated with SLC6A3 transcription or dopamine transporter density in vitro, in vivo, and ex vivo. Analysis of SLC6A3 and NR4A2 SNPs identified a statistically significant gene-gene interaction (P=0.001), consistent with in vitro evidence that the NR4A2 protein product (NURR1) regulates SLC6A3 transcription. A community cohort of N=175 multiplex ever-smoking pedigrees (N=423 ever smokers) provided nominal evidence for association with the FTND at these top ranked SNPs, uncorrected for multiple comparisons