Prospective Cohort Study of Infective Endocarditis in People Who Inject Drugs

International audienceBackground - Infective endocarditis (IE) in people who inject drugs (PWID) is an emergent public health problem. Objectives - The purpose of this study was to investigate IE in PWID and compare it with IE in non-PWID patients. Methods - Two prospective cohort studies (ICE-PCS and ICE-Plus databases, encompassing 8,112 IE episodes from 2000 to 2006 and 2008 to 2012, with 64 and 34 sites and 28 and 18 countries, respectively). Outcomes were compared between PWID and non-PWID patients with IE. Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate risk factors for 6-month mortality and relapses amongst PWID. Results - A total of 7,616 patients (591 PWID and 7,025 non-PWID) were included. PWID patients were significantly younger (median 37.0 years [interquartile range: 29.5 to 44.2 years] vs. 63.3 years [interquartile range: 49.3 to 74.0 years]; p < 0.001), male (72.5% vs. 67.4%; p = 0.007), and presented lower rates of comorbidities except for human immunodeficiency virus, liver disease, and higher rates of prior IE. Amongst IE cases in PWID, 313 (53%) episodes involved left-side valves and 204 (34.5%) were purely left-sided IE. PWID presented a larger proportion of native IE (90.2% vs. 64.4%; p < 0.001), whereas prosthetic-IE and cardiovascular implantable electronic device-IE were more frequent in non-PWID (9.3% vs. 27.0% and 0.5% vs. 8.6%; both p < 0.001). Staphylococcus aureus caused 65.9% and 26.8% of cases in PWID and non-PWID, respectively (p < 0.001). PWID presented higher rates of systemic emboli (51.1% vs. 22.5%; p < 0.001) and persistent bacteremia (14.7% vs. 9.3%; p < 0.001). Cardiac surgery was less frequently performed (39.5% vs. 47.8%; p < 0.001), and in-hospital and 6-month mortality were lower in PWID (10.8% vs. 18.2% and 14.4% vs. 22.2%; both p < 0.001), whereas relapses were more frequent in PWID (9.5% vs. 2.8%; p < 0.001). Prior IE, left-sided IE, polymicrobial etiology, intracardiac complications, and stroke were risk factors for 6-month mortality, whereas cardiac surgery was associated with lower mortality in the PWID population. Conclusions - A notable proportion of cases in PWID involve left-sided valves, prosthetic valves, or are caused by microorganisms other than S. aureus

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78–0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61–0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347–641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88–0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82–0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)