Financial Performance, Exchange Rate and Stock Return: Evidence from Manufacturing Sector

Abstract This study aims to find out and understand what variables influence stock returns on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Stock return is the first and foremost consideration for investors in making investment decisions, besides fundamental factors and the business environment. The methodology uses financial data with a sample of manufacturing companies recorded in the period 2013-2018, on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis used multiple regression analyisis and moderated regression analysis (MRA) for before and after mediating the IDR-USD exchange rate. The findings obtained are before being moderated, and after being mediated shows the liquidity (CR), efficiency (TATO), profitability (ROA and EPS), and solvency (DER) proxy, have a significant effect on stock returns, both before and after being mediated. Thus, it is evident that the exchange rate can influence financial performance factors, both partially and simultaneously. Managerial implications: capital market practitioners, especially investors/asset managers, can consider the variables and observe the movements of the IDR-USD exchange rate above as a component of investment decision making.Keywords: Stock return, financial performance, liquidity, efficiency, profitability, solvency, exchange rateAbstrak Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan memahami variabel apa saja yang bepengaruh terhadap return saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Return saham merupakan pertimbangan pertama dan utama bagi invstor dalam mengambil keputusan investasinya, di samping aspek fundamental dan lingkungan bisnis. Metodologi menggunakan data finansial dengan sampel perusahaan manufaktur sektor Barang Konsumsi yang tercatat pada periode 2013-2018, di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Analisis menggunakan regresi berganda dan moderated regression analysis (MRA) untuk sebelum dan sesudah termoderasi nilai tukar IDR-USD. Temuan yang didapat adalah sebelum termoderasi dan sesudah dimediasi menunjukkan proksi likuiditas (CR), efisiensi (TATO), profitabilitas (ROA dan EPS), dan solvabilitas (DER), berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return, baik sebelum maupun sesudah dimoderasi. Dengan demikian, terbukti bahwa nilai tukar mampu mempengaruhi faktor-faktor kinerja finansial, baik secara parsial maupun simultan. Implikasi manajerial: praktisi pasar modal terutama investor/manajer aset dapat mempertimbangkan variabel-variabel serta mengamati pergerakan nilai tukar IDR-USD sebagai komponen pengambilan keputusan investasi.Kata kunci: Return, likuiditas, efisiensi aset, profitabilitas, solvabilitas, nilai tukar

Financial Performance, Exchange Rate and Stock Return: Evidence from Manufacturing Sector

Abstract This study aims to find out and understand what variables influence stock returns on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Stock return is the first and foremost consideration for investors in making investment decisions, besides fundamental factors and the business environment. The methodology uses financial data with a sample of manufacturing companies recorded in the period 2013-2018, on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis used multiple regression analyisis and moderated regression analysis (MRA) for before and after mediating the IDR-USD exchange rate. The findings obtained are before being moderated, and after being mediated shows the liquidity (CR), efficiency (TATO), profitability (ROA and EPS), and solvency (DER) proxy, have a significant effect on stock returns, both before and after being mediated. Thus, it is evident that the exchange rate can influence financial performance factors, both partially and simultaneously. Managerial implications: capital market practitioners, especially investors/asset managers, can consider the variables and observe the movements of the IDR-USD exchange rate above as a component of investment decision making.Keywords: Stock return, financial performance, liquidity, efficiency, profitability, solvency, exchange rateAbstrak Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan memahami variabel apa saja yang bepengaruh terhadap return saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Return saham merupakan pertimbangan pertama dan utama bagi invstor dalam mengambil keputusan investasinya, di samping aspek fundamental dan lingkungan bisnis. Metodologi menggunakan data finansial dengan sampel perusahaan manufaktur sektor Barang Konsumsi yang tercatat pada periode 2013-2018, di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Analisis menggunakan regresi berganda dan moderated regression analysis (MRA) untuk sebelum dan sesudah termoderasi nilai tukar IDR-USD. Temuan yang didapat adalah sebelum termoderasi dan sesudah dimediasi menunjukkan proksi likuiditas (CR), efisiensi (TATO), profitabilitas (ROA dan EPS), dan solvabilitas (DER), berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return, baik sebelum maupun sesudah dimoderasi. Dengan demikian, terbukti bahwa nilai tukar mampu mempengaruhi faktor-faktor kinerja finansial, baik secara parsial maupun simultan. Implikasi manajerial: praktisi pasar modal terutama investor/manajer aset dapat mempertimbangkan variabel-variabel serta mengamati pergerakan nilai tukar IDR-USD sebagai komponen pengambilan keputusan investasi.Kata kunci: Return, likuiditas, efisiensi aset, profitabilitas, solvabilitas, nilai tukar

The Effect of Financial Performance and Innovation on Leverage: Evidence from Indonesian Food and Beverage Sector

This article aims to investigate the determinants of firm’s capital structure (debt ratio) such as asset structure, profitability, agency cost, innovation and technology, and firm size as a moderating variable. This study used quarterly data from the financial statements of food and beverage firms at the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a purposive sampling method that met the research criteria with panel data analysis. The findings show that firm size and asset structure affect leverage positively; however, profitability and innovation and technology negatively affect the debt ratio, while agency cost does not affect leverage. All findings are in line with the hypotheses except agency cost. The firm size as a moderating variable shows strengthening of the interaction between agency cost and innovation with leverage. However, interacting with firm size weakens the effect of the relationship between assets structure and profitability with the debt ratio. Managerial implications of the target of debt ratio that creates the value of the firm need to be flexible and controlled by the interaction of the firm size with firm characteristics and innovation to achieve an optimal firm value of F & B sector

The effect of earning information, cash flow components, and financing decision on stock returns: empirical evidence on Indonesia stock exchange

Trading, Service, and Investment sectors show an essential role in the national economy, and they have grown significantly during the past years. They have created many job opportunities in both the formal sector and the non-formal sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of net profit, operating cash flow, financing cash flow and investing cash flow and, financing decisions on stock’s return of service industry listed at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The analysis was done using the data panel regression. It shows that earning information, operating cash flow, financing cash flow positively affect stock returns. However, investing cash flow and financing decisions (proxy leverage) show a negative effect on the stock's return significantly. Simultaneously, the variables above affect stock return significantly. The implication is that management should pay more attention to financial factors, especially net profit, cash flow, and leverage to increase stock return and the company’s value

Application of Altman Modified Z-Score to Predict Financial Distress in the Indonesian Telecommunications Industry

Bankruptcy prediction is needed to assess the prospect of going concern and sustainability of the corporations in the future. This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of corporates with the Altman Z-Score Modification model in the telecommunications industry in Indonesia. The data used are the financial statements of the telecommunications industry that listing on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2011-2015. Samples for this study uses purposive sampling according to company criteria. The results of the study using the Altman Z-score modification method found two potentially bankrupt companies, namely Bakrie Telecom, Tbk, and Smartfren, Tbk. While Indosat, Tbk, and XL Axiata, Tbk have high financial distress potential due to liquidity and profitability problems that tend to weaken. Meanwhile, Telkom Indonesia, Tbk, and Infracom Inovisi financial concessions are relatively healthy and have the right business expectation

The Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators, Crude Oil Prices, and the Dow Jones Index on the Jakarta Composite Index

This research aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors, such as  Exchange Rate, BI Rate, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Crude Oil Price, and Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the 2014-2018 period. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) with a significant level of 5% with E-views 10 software. The results of partial research show that in the short and long term, the Exchange Rate and Oil Price significantly negatively affect the JCI and BI Rate in the short term and have a significant negative relationship with the JCI, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product a negative and insignificant relationship with the JCI and the Dow Jones Index in the short and long term has a significant positive relationship with the JCI. The simultaneous research results show that the Exchange Rate, BI Rate, Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, Oil Price, and the DJIA simultaneously significantly influence the dependent variable, namely JCI. According to the Islamic review, activities related to Exchange Rate, BI Rate, Inflation, GDP, Crude Oil Prices, the Dow Jones Index, and the JCI are allowed. However, they must comply with Islamic law and regulations

The Relationship of Macro-risk Indicators, Internal Factors, and Risk Profile of Islamic Banking in Indonesia

This study is essential because Islamic banks have a higher NPF level than conventional banks and examine whether macroeconomic indicators (macro-risk), internal factors of banking (GCG-earnings-capital) risk profile correlate term Indonesian Islamic banking. The method used is the correlation analysis involving four macro-risk variables (Forex; BI rate; Inflation and GDP), three GEC variables (GCG; ROA, and CAR), and two risk profiles (FDR and NPF). The number of samples is the ten largest Indonesia sharia commercial banks with the 2011-2018 periods. This research finds that macroeconomic indicators positively correlate to non-performing financing (NPF). The GEC positively correlates to NPF and FDR; GEC is negatively correlated to macro-risk indicators. However, some indicators are negatively correlated, such as GDP-corporate governance, Forex-profitability, GDP-efficiency, BI rate-capital, and profitability-NPF. The study proposed managerial implications to understand the relationship between macroeconomic, internal factors, and risk profile in Islamic bank lending.JEL: D02; G21, G32How to Cite:Santosa, P. W., Setianingrum, A., & Huda, N. (2020). The Relationship of Macro-risk Indicators, Internal Factors and Risk Profile of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), 221-236. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.15528

Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan dan BI Rate terhadap Return Saham Sektor Otomotif Indonesia

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui pengaruh kinerja keuangan profitabilitas (return on equity-ROE dan net profit margin-NPM), solvabilitas (debt to equity ratio-DER)  dan proxy macro-risk (BI rate)  terhadap return saham otomotif di Indonesia.  Penelitian menggunakan laporan keuangan triwulan perusahaan otomotif di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Penyampelan menggunakan metode purposive sampling dan analisis regresi berganda. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabel ROE berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap return, NPM tidak memengaruhi return, DER dan BI rate berpengaruh negatif terhadap return.  Konklusi: profitabilitas berpengaruh positif terhadap return menunjukkan apresiasi investor terhadap kinerja manajemen; sedangkan solvabilitas memberikan efek negatif karena struktur modal sudah melebihi target optimalnya; dan BI rate juga berpengaruh negatif karena meningkatkan beban bunga perusahaa

PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN MODEL SPRINGATE PADA INDUSTRI TELEKOMUNIKASI

This study purposes to analyze of corporate bankruptcy prediction of telecommunication industry in Indonesia with Springate model. The data used in the form of financial statements published by the telecommunications industry at Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2009-2013period. The sampling technique of this study was determined by purposive sampling method for six samples from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The results using Springate model shows that two companies, PT Bakrie Telecom, Tbk and PT Smartfren, Tbk could potentiallybankrupt in the future and three companies For PT Indosat, Tbk, PT XL Axiata, Tbk and PT Inovisi Infracom, Tbk are classified have financial distress problem. The company that very good results is PT Telekom Indonesia, Tbk and categorized has no bankruptcy problem. Ingeneral analysis telecommunication caompany have no good financial condition because business risk and financial risk are higher relatively than other industry

Perbandingan Kinerja Reksadana Konvensional dengan Syariah

Penelitian ini membandingkan kinerja reksadana konvensional dengan reksadana syariah di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder dan pengambilan sampel menggunakan metode purposive sampling. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah uji beda independent samples t-test. Reksadana yang diuji adalah pendapatan tetap dan saham dengan periode 2014-2016 dengan motode Treynor, Sharpe dan Jensen.Temuan pengujian kinerja reksadana menunjukkan bahwa reksadana konvensional dan reksadana syariah pendapatan tetap mempunyai kinerja yang tidak berbeda pada imbal hasilnya. Sedangkan dengan metode Jensen kinerja reksadana mempunyai perbedaan. Pada reksadana konvensional dan reksadana syariah saham menunjukkan kinerja return yang tidak berbeda, menggunakan metode Treynor, Sharpe dan Jense