How uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?

The disastrous July 2021 flooding event made us question the ability of current hydrometeorological tools in providing timely and reliable flood forecasts for unprecedented events. This is an urgent concern since extreme events are increasing due to global warming, and existing methods are usually limited to more frequently observed events with the usual flood generation processes. For the July 2021 event, we simulated the hourly streamflows of seven catchments located in western Germany by combining seven partly polarimetric, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) with two hydrological models: a conceptual lumped model (GR4H) and a physically based, 3D distributed model (ParFlowCLM). GR4H parameters were calibrated with an emphasis on high flows using historical discharge observations, whereas ParFlowCLM parameters were estimated based on landscape and soil properties. The key results are as follows. (1) With no correction of the vertical profiles of radar variables, radar-based QPE products underestimated the total precipitation depth relative to rain gauges due to intense collision–coalescence processes near the surface, i.e., below the height levels monitored by the radars. (2) Correcting the vertical profiles of radar variables led to substantial improvements. (3) The probability of exceeding the highest measured peak flow before July 2021 was highly impacted by the QPE product, and this impact depended on the catchment for both models. (4) The estimation of model parameters had a larger impact than the choice of QPE product, but simulated peak flows of ParFlowCLM agreed with those of GR4H for five of the seven catchments. This study highlights the need for the correction of vertical profiles of reflectivity and other polarimetric variables near the surface to improve radar-based QPEs for extreme flooding events. It also underlines the large uncertainty in peak flow estimates due to model parameter estimation.</p

New insights into the surface Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS) response of adenine using chemometrics

International audienceThe SERS response of adenine is one of the most studied, due to its outstanding exaltation. However, the spectra obtained strongly differ according to the experimental conditions and still remain not well understood. To be able to search for the presence of this molecule in complex environments, it is essential to better understand the SERS response of adenine alone. After a brief presentation of the literature on the subject, we present results suggesting that the experimental spectra would result from the overlap of different spectroscopic signatures, that may probably be due to different non-covalent interactions or different electromagnetic fields experienced by adenine molecules. An independent component analysis is reported. Our results underline the difficulty to precisely analyze the experimental data, the need to continue this research and to constitute data banks that would allow comparing the spectra obtained in different laboratories according to the experimental conditions