72 research outputs found

    A Unique \u27Prognosticon\u27

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    Change and continuity in Greek voting behaviour

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    The paper analyses the change and continuity in electoral support from the pre-dictatorship period to the years following 1974. It analyses the geography of the election results both by region and by type of area, and it also examines the results of a pre-election opinion survey in 1981 which categorized voters by age, sex, level of education, and social class. It considers the extent to which the recent support given to the Socialists parallels that of the old Centre Union party in 1963 and 1964, and it also examines a similar continuity in voting for the main right-wing party. It concludes that there are notable parallels, though it also highlights the exceptional uniformity of recent Socialist support

    Millennial-scale isotope records from a wide-ranging predator show evidence of recent human impact to oceanic food webs

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    Human exploitation of marine ecosystems is more recent in oceanic than near shore regions, yet our understanding of human impacts on oceanic food webs is comparatively poor. Few records of species that live beyond the continental shelves date back more than 60 y, and the sheer size of oceanic regions makes their food webs difficult to study, even in modern times. Here, we use stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to study the foraging history of a generalist, oceanic predator, the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis), which ranges broadly in the Pacific from the equator to near the Aleutian Islands. Our isotope records from modern and ancient, radiocarbon-dated bones provide evidence of over 3,000 y of dietary stasis followed by a decline of ca. 1.8‰ in δ15N over the past 100 y. Fishery-induced trophic decline is the most likely explanation for this sudden shift, which occurs in genetically distinct populations with disparate foraging locations. Our isotope records also show that coincident with the apparent decline in trophic level, foraging segregation among petrel populations decreased markedly. Because variation in the diet of generalist predators can reflect changing availability of their prey, a foraging shift in wide-ranging Hawaiian petrel populations suggests a relatively rapid change in the composition of oceanic food webs in the Northeast Pacific. Understanding and mitigating widespread shifts in prey availability may be a critical step in the conservation of endangered marine predators such as the Hawaiian petrel

    Predicted distribution of ‘ua‘u (Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis) nest sites on Haleakalā, Maui

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    Haleakalā National Park and montane areas on east Maui, Hawaiian Archipelago, support critical nesting habitat for endangered ‘ua‘u Hawaiian petrel Pterodroma sandwichensis. Habitat loss, non-native predators, and damage by feral ungulates are limiting factors for ground-nesting petrels at Haleakalā and throughout Hawai‘i. Because nesting habitats differ among the Hawaiian Islands, habitat distribution modeling for Hawaiian petrel has been island specific. Based on 2453 known nest site locations, we provide the first landscape-scale predictive model describing relative abundance and habitat available for nesting petrels throughout upper Haleakalā (1830 to 3055 m). We evaluated (principal components analyses and Pearson’s correlation) 13 spatial landscape and climate predictor variables associated with nest sites and the background landscape followed by random forest modeling to predict nest site density. Six variables (elevation, slope, topographic position index at 2 scales, heat load index, presence-absence ash/cinder, and presence-absence vegetation) indicated nest sites occurred non-randomly throughout the central part of the summit and crater; greatest concentrations were predicted along the crater rim and a ridgeline extending southwest from the summit. Moderately high predicted density occurred in the northeastern and northern crater. Lower elevations to the north, west, and south flanks of Haleakalā had relatively fewer predicted nest sites. Although we focused on higher elevations on Haleakalā, there is no reason to suspect that conservation efforts would not be successful at lower elevations, provided nesting petrels were protected from invasive predators, grazing ungulates, and significant land alteration
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