Cash Flow-Wise ABCDS pricing

The Asset Backed CDS contract was introduced in 2005 as an extension of the standard corporate CDS. It generally trades under the ISDA "pay-as-you-go'' (PAUG) confirmation which handles the unique features of ABS - amortization, principal writedowns and interest shortfalls. The current market standard for pricing is a simple adaptation of the widely used intensity based model, where the amortization schedule of the security is deterministic. Taking example from some European ABS, we establish stylized facts about their default. In particular, we show that principal writedowns often come along with an extension of the ABS' maturity and can also be preceded by interest shortfalls. This paper introduces adjustments to the classical framework to account for these specificities, with amortization profile becoming a default-dependent function. We show that the resulting duration becomes an increasing function of spread, capturing the fact that distressed ABS shift toward slower amortization.Asset-Backed Securities (ABS), credit default swap (CDS), ABCDS, pay-as-you-go (PAUG), securitization, valuation

The missing risk premium in exchange rates

We use a present-value model of the real exchange rate to impose structure on the currency risk premium. We allow the currency risk premium to depend on both the interest rate differential and a latent component: the missing risk premium. Consistent with the data, our present-value model implies that the real exchange rate should predict currency returns. We find that the missing risk premium, not the interest rate differential, explains most of the variation in the real exchange rate. Moreover, our model sheds light on puzzling relations between the interest rate differential, the real exchange rate, and the currency risk premium

Cash Flow-Wise ABCDS pricing

The Asset Backed CDS contract was introduced in 2005 as an extension of the standard corporate CDS. It generally trades under the ISDA "pay-as-you-go'' (PAUG) confirmation which handles the unique features of ABS - amortization, principal writedowns and interest shortfalls. The current market standard for pricing is a simple adaptation of the widely used intensity based model, where the amortization schedule of the security is deterministic. Taking example from some European ABS, we establish stylized facts about their default. In particular, we show that principal writedowns often come along with an extension of the ABS' maturity and can also be preceded by interest shortfalls. This paper introduces adjustments to the classical framework to account for these specificities, with amortization profile becoming a default-dependent function. We show that the resulting duration becomes an increasing function of spread, capturing the fact that distressed ABS shift toward slower amortization