Capital Flows, Default, and Renegotiation in a Small Open Economy

The post-2008 period focused attention on "twin-crises". Banking crises may lead to sovereign crises where fiscal vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the extension of support for the banking system. We develop a model that describes private sector generated capital inflow that is used to finance investment and consumption expenditure. In the event of an economic contraction, the (convex) haircut on outstanding debt is negotiated, or bargained, centrally by the sovereign. Two results arise: the volume of debt and haircut rate are inefficient. In this setting the accumulation of capital achieves two goals. First, it generates sufficient optimism about future income to allow the debt market to function. Second, and counter-intuitively, it increases expected haircuts by raising the value of the outside option of complete default. These competing forces characterize the optimal balanced-budget macroprudential policy targeting capital investment

Debt, Recovery Rates and the Greek Dilemma

Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focussed on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek and German economies and support two-steady states, one with endogenous default and one without, depending on creditors expectations. In the default steady state, debt forgiveness lowers the volatility of both German and Greek consumption whereas demanding higher recovery rates has the opposite effect

Quantitative easing in an open economy : prices, exchange rates and risk premia

Explicit targets for the composition of assets traded by governments are necessary for fiscal-monetary policy to determine the stochastic paths of inflation or exchange rates; this is the case even if fiscal policy is non-Ricardian. Targets obtain with the traditional conduct of monetary policy and Credit Easing, but not with unconventional policy and Quantitative Easing. The composition of the portfolios traded by monetary-fiscal authorities determines premia in asset and currency markets

Perils of quantitative easing

Quantitative easing compromises the control of the central bank over the stochastic path of inflation

Perils of unconventional monetary policy

Unconventional monetary policy, by relaxing restrictions on the composition of the balance sheet of the central bank, compromises control over the stochastic path of inflation; or, in open economies, over the stochastic path of exchange rates. If the composition of the balance sheet is unrestricted then the path of inflation is indeterminate. This is the case under pure quantitative easing, where the target is the size of real money balances. In contrast, credit easing policies restrict the composition of the portfolio by targeting a specific expansion in the maturity profile of bonds bought, and thus can implement a determinate path of inflation. The composition of the portfolios traded by monetary-fiscal authorities also determines premia in asset and currency markets

Essays in money, liquidity and default in the theory of finance

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

International Monetary Equilibrium with Default

We present an integrated framework for the study of the international financial economy with trade, fiat money, monetary and fiscal policy, endogenous default and regulation. Money is introduced via a cash-in-advance requirement and real trade is endogenous. The standard international finance pricing results obtain. Market incompleteness and positive default in equilibrium allow for the study of the transmission of default through the international financial markets and imply a positive role for policy. Finally, we present an example where, due to the trade-off between the non-pecuniary cost of default and the resulting allocation, a Pareto improvement occurs following an increase in interest rates

Quantitative Easing in an Open Economy: Prices, Exchange Rates and Risk Premia

Explicit targets for the composition of assets traded by governments are necessary for fiscal-monetary policy to determine the stochastic paths of inflation or exchange rates; this is the case even if fiscal policy is non-Ricardian. Targets obtain with the traditional conduct of monetary policy and Credit Easing, but not with unconventional policy and Quantitative Easing. The composition of the portfolios traded by monetary-fiscal authorities determines premia in asset and currency markets