6,927 research outputs found

    The role of heterogeneity in the population ecology and resilience of marine predator species

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    The marine environment is intrinsically linked to the biotic and abiotic processes that regulate the life support systems of the planet, including nutrient and hydrological cycling, climate patterns, geological processes, oxygen production, and nutritional resourcing. Long-term natural cycles in climate variation have pronounced impacts on weather systems, sea surface temperature and marine food webs. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in these systems and processes can influence communities directly via modulation of survival, reproductive success, and the distribution of resources, and anthropogenic pressures can contribute to heterogeneity in natural systems, influencing bottom-up and top-down processes. For ecological communities regulated by top-down processes, climate-linked shifts in the distribution, population and community dynamics of predators are likely to have pronounced effects on ecosystem composition and function. The influence of environmental variability upon predator ecology is therefore an area of particular research focus. In marine habitats, spatial and temporal heterogeneity in sea surface temperature has been associated with changes to reproductive phenology in predator and prey species, while spatial and temporal heterogeneity in resource availability may be associated with changes in the survival rates of animals across developmental stages. Likewise, heterogeneity in the approach to data collection, management and analysis may influence the interpretation of results and guide subsequent management decisions. To investigate the role of heterogeneity in marine predator ecology I focus on two apex predators in the Irish Sea: the grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) and the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus). I explore how temporal heterogeneity of environmental conditions may affect reproductive phenology, how spatial and temporal heterogeneity of data collection and analysis methods affects estimates of population dynamics, and how heterogeneity in survival at different developmental stages can be reflected in population-level dynamics. After providing an overview of the focus of my thesis in Chapter one, using multi-decade time series from eight major grey seal and Manx shearwater breeding sites, I use logistic population growth models and generalised additive models in Chapter two to explore how changes in the timing and progression of the grey seal pupping season are dependent on climatic drivers. In Chapters three and four I use matrix population models (MPM) to quantify the effects of data aggregation and substitution of missing model parameters upon estimates of population dynamics over multiple spatial and temporal scales. In Chapter five I then continue the application of MPMs to calculate indices of resilience in scenarios of perturbation, to explore the population-level effects of reduced survival in specific demographic groups, namely fledgling, juvenile and adult Manx shearwater. My results suggest that contemporaneous heterogeneity in broad- and local-scale climate indices is less influential to reproductive phenology than intrinsic drivers, and that variation in survival rates of year-one animals is largely explained by fine-scale spatial heterogeneity. The substitution of demographic information when parameterising population models introduced biases and uncertainty into projections of population dynamics, and the simulated reduction of survival in juvenile animals appeared to have a potential latent effect on population stability – the consequences of reduced juvenile survival being realised as a reduction in recruitment to the breeding adult population. Finally, in Chapter six I summarise the main findings of this mosaic of studies and discuss them in the context of existing research, to identify avenues for future research. These investigations highlight the need for intrinsic and spatial processes to be incorporated into studies of climatic drivers of ecological change, and the importance of ensuring the accuracy and appropriate collection, management and analysis of data sources. They also illustrate the potential population-level effects of perturbations to survival in demographic groups which can be logistically difficult to monitor, and act as a reminder that the challenging option is often the one that is necessary

    The Wigner caustic on shell and singularities of odd functions

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    We study the Wigner caustic on shell of a Lagrangian submanifold L of affine symplectic space. We present the physical motivation for studying singularities of the Wigner caustic on shell and present its mathematical definition in terms of a generating family. Because such a generating family is an odd deformation of an odd function, we study simple singularities in the category of odd functions and their odd versal deformations, applying these results to classify the singularities of the Wigner caustic on shell, interpreting these singularities in terms of the local geometry of L.Comment: 24 page

    From Simple Fixes to Systemic Enablers: The Future of Digital Development

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    Advancing knowledge, shaping policy and inspiring practice on digital development is critical to achieving the Institute of Development Studies’ (IDS) vision of reducing inequalities, accelerating sustainability, and building secure and inclusive societies. This synthesis paper outlines key lessons from four recent IDS Evidence Reports on the state of digital development and draws out the implications for policymakers and practitioners working in development and humanitarian organisations. Digital development is popular, and little wonder. Innovations such as personal computers and mobile phones have spread more quickly across more people than any comparable technologies in human history. Over the past two decades the digital revolution has ushered in transformative changes to the ways we communicate and organise, with many cascading effects across social, economic and political spheres. With the advent of newer developments, including artificial intelligence, 3D printing and robotics, yet more profound changes are anticipated in the years and decades to come. What does this mean for international development and humanitarian work

    Open Cold Dark Matter Models

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    Motivated by recent developments in inflationary cosmology indicating the possibility of obtaining genuinely open universes in some models, we compare the predictions of cold dark matter (CDM) models in open universes with a variety of observational information. The spectrum of the primordial curvature perturbation is taken to be scale invariant (spectral index n=1n=1), corresponding to a flat inflationary potential. We allow arbitrary variation of the density parameter Ω0\Omega_0 and the Hubble parameter hh, and take full account of the baryon content assuming standard nucleosynthesis. We normalize the power spectrum using the recent analysis of the two year {\it COBE} DMR data by G\'{o}rski et al. We then consider a variety of observations, namely the galaxy correlation function, bulk flows, the abundance of galaxy clusters and the abundance of damped Lyman alpha systems. For the last two of these, we provide a new treatment appropriate to open universes. We find that, if one allows an arbitrary hh, then a good fit is available for any Ω0\Omega_0 greater than 0.35, though for Ω0\Omega_0 close to 1 the required hh is alarmingly low. Models with Ω0<0.35\Omega_0 < 0.35 seem unable to fit observations while keeping the universe over 1010 Gyr old; this limit is somewhat higher than that appearing in the literature thus far. If one assumes a value of h>0.6h > 0.6, as favoured by recent measurements, concordance with the data is only possible for the narrow range 0.35<Ω0<0.550.35 < \Omega_0 < 0.55. We have also investigated n≠1n \neq 1; the extra freedom naturally widens the allowed parameter region. Assuming a range 0.9<n<1.10.9<n<1.1, the allowed range of Ω0\Omega_0 assuming h>0.6h > 0.6 is at most 0.30<Ω0<0.600.30 < \Omega_0 < 0.60.Comment: 12 pages, uuencoded package containing LaTeX file (using mn.sty) plus 4 postscript figures incorporated using epsf. Main change is an improved cluster abundance calculation. Overall conclusions almost unchanged though. Also two equations corrected, references updated etc. Final version, to appear MNRA

    Chirally symmetric quark description of low energy \pi-\pi scattering

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    Weinberg's theorem for \pi-\pi scattering, including the Adler zero at threshold in the chiral limit, is analytically proved for microscopic quark models that preserve chiral symmetry. Implementing Ward-Takahashi identities, the isospin 0 and 2 scattering lengths are derived in exact agreement with Weinberg's low energy results. Our proof applies to alternative quark formulations including the Hamiltonian and Euclidean space Dyson-Schwinger approaches. Finally, the threshold \pi-\pi scattering amplitudes are calculated using the Dyson-Schwinger equations in the rainbow-ladder truncation, confirming the formal derivation.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, Revtex

    A protocol for an international, multicentre pharmacokinetic study for Screening Antifungal Exposure in Intensive Care Units: The SAFE-ICU study

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    Antifungal agents; Critically ill; DosingAgentes antifúngicos; Enfermo crítico; DosificaciónAgents antifúngics; Malalt crític; DosificacióObjective To describe whether contemporary dosing of antifungal drugs achieves therapeutic exposures in critically ill patients that are associated with optimal outcomes. Adequate antifungal therapy is a key determinant of survival of critically ill patients with fungal infections. Critical illness can alter an antifungal agents’ pharmacokinetics, increasing the risk of inappropriate antifungal exposure that may lead to treatment failure and/or toxicity. Design, setting and participants This international, multicentre, observational pharmacokinetic study will comprise adult critically ill patients prescribed antifungal agents including fluconazole, voriconazole, posaconazole, isavuconazole, caspofungin, micafungin, anidulafungin, and amphotericin B for the treatment or prophylaxis of invasive fungal disease. A minimum of 12 patients are targeted for enrolment for each antifungal agent, across 12 countries and 30 intensive care units to perform descriptive pharmacokinetics. Pharmacokinetic sampling will occur during two dosing intervals (occasions): firstly, between days 1 and 3, and secondly, between days 4 and 7 of the antifungal course, collecting three samples per occasion. Patients’ demographic and clinical data will be collected. Main outcome measures The primary endpoint of the study is attainment of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target exposures that are associated with optimal efficacy. Thirty-day mortality will also be measured. Results and conclusions This study will describe whether contemporary antifungal drug dosing achieves drug exposures associated with optimal outcomes. Data will also be used for the development of antifungal dosing algorithms for critically ill patients. Optimised drug dosing should be considered a priority for improving clinical outcomes for critically ill patients with fungal infections.Funding for this study has been provided by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital Research Foundation. Gilead Fellowship to Dr FB Sime

    Circulating C-reactive protein and breast cancer risk – systematic literature review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

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    We conducted a systematic literature review to explore the association between circulating C-reactive protein (CRP), a low-grade inflammation biomarker, and breast cancer risk. Relevant prospective studies in women were identified in PubMed and Web of Science until February 2015. Random-effects dose-response metaanalysis was conducted, overall and in post-menopausal women. Twelve out of 15 studies identified were included in the meta-analysis on any breast cancers (3,522 cases, 69,610 women) and nine on postmenopausal breast cancer (2,516 cases, 36,847 women). For each doubling of CRP concentration, a 7% (95% CI: 2%–12%) and 6% (95% CI: 1%–11%) increased risk was observed (I2=47% and 32%; P heterogeneity=0.04 and 0.17), respectively. The association was linear over most of the range of CRP concentrations. Positive associations remained in the studies that examined the exclusion of early years of follow-up. Associations were attenuated in studies adjusted for lifestyle factors, which partly explained the significant heterogeneity between studies in the overall analysis. On average, the associations in studies adjusted or not adjusted for body mass index were similar. Low-grade inflammation may have a role in breast cancer development. Additional prospective studies are needed to better understand confounding and effect modification from lifestyle factors

    Analytical approach to chiral symmetry breaking in Minkowsky space

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    The mass gap equation for spontaneous chiral symmetry breaking is studied directly in Minkowsky space. In hadronic physics, spontaneous chiral symmetry breaking is crucial to generate a constituent mass for the quarks, and to produce the Partially Conserved Axial Current theorems, including a small mass for the pion. Here a class of finite kernels is used, expanded in Yukawa interactions. The Schwinger-Dyson equation is solved with an analytical approach. This improves the state of the art of solving the mass gap equation, which is usually solved with the equal-time approximation or with the Euclidean approximation. The mapping from the Euclidean space to the Minkowsky space is also illustrated.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure
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