A MICROCOMPUTER MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE SPREAD AND CONTROL OF FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE IN FERAL PIGS

A microcomputer software package (AUSPLAGUE) is being constructed for development and testing of management plans for eradicating an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). It will indicate when and where control of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) is necessary to contain and eradicate, the disease. The software simulates the distribution and prevalence of FMD in feral pigs from the start of an outbreak and throughout the subsequent eradication campaign. The procedure is to integrate landscape data, the distribution and social behavior of feral pigs, a model of disease dynamics, and appropriate control measures. The modular package design enables data bases and models of hostdisease dynamics to be updated as further information is acquired on feral pig ecology. When completed, AUSPLAGUE will be used as a decision-support system in developing control strategies for a wide range of outbreak scenarios, and it will serve as a prototype for other diseases of feral animals and native wildlife

The relative influence of in situ and neighborhood factors on reptile recolonization in post-mining restoration sites

Restoration can be important in slowing, or reducing, rates of biodiversity loss, but needs to consider the factors influencing fauna recolonization as part of the recovery process. Although many studies of factors influencing faunal recolonization have examined the influence of in situ site factors, fewer have examined the influence of neighborhood landscape factors, especially in landscapes with permeable matrices. To assess the relative influence of landscape and site factors on reptile recolonization in a production landscape with a permeable matrix, we surveyed reptiles at intact reference sites and post-mining restoration sites (3-20 years post-mining [YPM]) in a forest ecosystem in southwestern Australia. Reptile assemblages in restoration sites never converged on those in reference habitat. Reptile species composition and individual species abundances (>20 detections) in restoration sites were primarily influenced by site factors such as canopy height, litter cover, and coarse woody debris volume, and not by landscape factors. We suggest that the most common reptile species in our study area are primarily influenced by site factors, not landscape factors, and most reptiles detected in restoration sites were present by 3-4 YPM. Therefore, it is likely that habitat suitability is the main barrier to most species' recolonization of restoration sites in landscapes with permeable matrices. Management should continue to focus on restoring microhabitats and vegetation structure, which is similar to reference habitat to promote recolonization of restoration sites by reptiles

Conserving reptiles within a multiple-use landscape: determining habitat affiliations of reptile communities in the northern jarrah forest of south-western Australia

Disturbed landscapes can provide habitat for a variety of species; however, for fauna, a strong understanding of their habitat affiliations is critical both to detect species and to develop management prescriptions to maintain their populations. We assessed habitat affiliations of common, uncommon and rare reptile species in a multiple-use landscape, the northern jarrah forest of south-Western Australia. To identify predictors of reptile occurrence, we related reptile presence/absence, or relative abundance, to habitat, climatic and seasonal variables. Because the reptiles studied have cryptic behaviours and low numbers of detections, we used a combination of analyses including non-metric multi-dimensional scaling, occupancy and regression models. We identified specific habitat affiliations for the most common species and potential linkages with vegetation structure for most uncommon species. There were insufficient detections to determine habitat affiliations accurately for most rare species. Often species were detected too infrequently to determine specific habitat variables that influence occupancy and detection, and altering survey time and scale may increase detections so that habitat affiliations can be determined. However, in highly speciose landscapes, like our study area, we may not be able to wait until we have enough detections to define the habitat affiliations of all reptiles before we make management decisions. Therefore management activities that maintain habitat heterogeneity and complexity is likely to be the best strategy to conserve the most reptile species

Predicting and assessing progress in the restoration of ecosystems

Restoration of degraded landscapes has become necessary to reverse the pervasive threats from human exploitation. Restoration requires first the monitoring of progress toward any chosen goals to determine their resilience and persistence, and second to conduct in a comparable adjacent area but with less human impact the restoration of trophic structures and ecosystem processes to act as reference systems (controls) with which we compare the viability of the chosen goal. We present here the rationale and a method for predicting the trajectory of restoration and assessing its progress toward a predetermined state, the endpoint, using a restoration index. This assessment of restoration requires that we know when a predetermined endpoint has been achieved and whether the envisioned community of species and their interactions can be restored. The restoration index can use species’ presence or density, and the rate of change of ecosystem processes. The index applies to trophic levels, functional groups, successional stages, alternative states, and novel ecosystems. Also, our method allows measurement of the resilience of ecosystems to disturbance, a desired property for conservation and management. We provide global examples to illustrate these points